30 replies to this topic

[dude]

It may be too early to start discussing this, but it's probably not.

 

Chris and I have different opinions about the primary intent of the current processes.  He thinks this is about winning and the Orioles will be aggressive with their depth and payroll flexibility in 2022 and I'd suggest that we won't see that type of action until 2 other events are resolved.

 

The Orioles seem to have a threshold of about 1M for their rostered players and I'd guess we'll get the hyper version of that in 2022 not the 'go spend 20+M on FAs to fill up the roster' approach.

 

So the Orioles will have 12 players eligible for arbitration next year.

 

Davis is under contract for one more season at 17M (2022 + plus 42M in deferred money)

Galvis, Franco and Harvey are FAs.

 

ARB3

Mancini

 

ARB2

Severino

Armstrong

Valaika

 

ARB1

Santander (Super 2 in 2021, I use ARB 0 for Super 2 to keep ARB years aligned)

Means

Lopez

Plutko

Ruiz

Fry

Sisco

Scott

 

I'd guess we will have no arbitration tenders in 2022.

 

We've already seen Oriole beat writers float Mancini, Santander and Means as trade candidates.

 

So these players all fall into basically 2 categories...they are either traded or they serve a purpose through the end of the season.  The biggest purpose some of them may serve is absorbing innings for the team to survive the season without over-exposing (or even exposing) some of the younger arms.

 

It's just the first week of May and the trade deadline isn't until 30 JUL (4pm), but Organization interests could be served by moving some assets earlier than later towards the deadline.

 

Guess the status for these 12 players by December (tender deadline) 

[dude]

We can go with 4 statuses, 

T1 = traded before the AS break

T2 = traded by the Trade deadline

WNT = Waiver or non-tender by DEC

TC = Tendered arbitration contract

C = Contract before the ARB filing deadline 

 

Mancini: T1

Severino: WNT

Armstrong: WNT

Valaika: WNT 

Santander: T1

Means: T2

Lopez: WNT

Plutko: T2

Ruiz: C (I'd guess he's the one guy that signs an undervalued 750k deal to stay on the active roster)

Fry: T2

Sisco: C (I'd guess he signs an undervalued deal or is traded after the season, if not then WNT)

Scott: T2

[Old Man]

So we trade arb talent, so they dont have to pay them?

 

Thats very telling to me, that they are not building a contender and bringing in pieces to supplement what good talent you currently have.

[FL O's Fan]

I'm gonna hope for something in the middle. Not necessarily hanging onto all the talent as we're not in a contention window yet, and yet hopefully not going for lowest possible contracts across the board. I hope we don't sell low just to save a few pennies here and there. 

 

Mancini: T2 (I'd like to hang onto Trey, but I'm not sure we're in that phase yet money wise)

Severino: T2

Armstrong: T2

Valaika: WNT 

Santander: TC (needs time to build his value, whether as part of future or trade candidate)

Means: C (Extend Means a bit beyond his ARB years)

Lopez: WNT

Plutko: T2

Ruiz: TC 

Fry: T2

Sisco: TC 

Scott: TC

[dude]

I'm gonna hope for something in the middle. 

 

I'd only add, I was posting what I think will happen, not what I want (hope will) to happen.

 

My preferred scenario would include extending both Mancini and Means.

 

I'm also comfortable with Santander in RF and continuing in arbitration with him.

 

....but I think there's specific reasons they've all been floated as trade bait this year (since JAN)  

[Mackus]

Nobody being offered arbitration would be wild.  I think they'd offer somebody just to slightly kill the story of having non-tendered literally everyone who was eligible for a raise.

[dude]

Nobody being offered arbitration would be wild.  I think they'd offer somebody just to slightly kill the story of having non-tendered literally everyone who was eligible for a raise.

 

They only had one (Santander) this year....and he was coming off an .870 OPS and GG finalist.

 

Mancini would certainly been tendered if they hadn't reached a deal based on the optics of his situation at a minimum.

 

We heard the unprecedented report that the Orioles requested both Mancini and Santander defer part of their 2021 salaries as Arbitration players.

 

It's entirely likely that Armstrong and Valaika were facing non-tenders when they signed their contracts and felt the guarantee with better than the risk of FA and trying to find a ML deal.

 

Severino likely served as something of a buffer (with Sisco) to the Rutschman pressures.

 

I'd just point out that the event horizon for the Team is known.  This isn't sneaking up on them and if you know where you're headed, you start working the mitigations now....ie, you don't have to deal with the risks of the tender commitments if you've traded them.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I mean come on. There are going to be multiple arb eligibile guys rostered next year. Its a damn near lock.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Oh, and it is too early at this point.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

We can go with 4 statuses,
T1 = traded before the AS break
T2 = traded by the Trade deadline
WNT = Waiver or non-tender by DEC
TC = Tendered arbitration contract
C = Contract before the ARB filing deadline

Mancini: T1
Severino: WNT
Armstrong: WNT
Valaika: WNT
Santander: T1
Means: T2
Lopez: WNT
Plutko: T2
Ruiz: C (I'd guess he's the one guy that signs an undervalued 750k deal to stay on the active roster)
Fry: T2
Sisco: C (I'd guess he signs an undervalued deal or is traded after the season, if not then WNT)
Scott: T2

Baffling why you think Ruiz of all people is most likely to be tendered or signs a new contract for '22. Hes right there with Valaika as the most likely of these guys to be DFA before this year is over.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Means is going to be here next year unless Elias gets a terrific offer or Means suffers some long term injury like TJ where he'd be out for all or most of '22. I doubt the terrific offer is coming. They'll also happily go Arb 1 with Scott. He's not going to have much trade value with his control issues but he's obviously got too good an arm not to offer Arb 1.

[dude]

Baffling why you think Ruiz of all people is most likely to be tendered or signs a new contract for '22. He's right there with Valaika as the most likely of these guys to be DFA before this year is over.

 

funny.

[dude]

Means is going to be here next year unless Elias gets a terrific offer or Means suffers some long term injury like TJ where he'd be out for all or most of '22. I doubt the terrific offer is coming. They'll also happily go Arb 1 with Scott. He's not going to have much trade value with his control issues but he's obviously got too good an arm not to offer Arb 1.

 

I get your position, you think this is about baseball decisions.  I'd suggest it's not.  Math.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Omg. Its a freaking lock there will be multiple arb offers.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If the Os ownership wont pay some of these deserving Arb salaries then sell the team. Like Im done following them for real until they sell. Elias has been penny pinching but its being blown out of proportion. There hasn't been a single non tender or trade that wasn't somewhat justifiable. Guys like Alberto and Nunez are showing why non tendering them was the right call. Bundy you got some real value back for a guy who was below league avg here. Villar made 8.2 mil and put up neg WAR in '20. Trading Scott or Means for suspect value would be unjustifiable.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Honestly you can put Santander in that category too. Unless he's really really bad this year there is no reason to not offer him the 4- 5ish mil it'll take in '22.

[dude]

If the Os ownership wont pay some of these deserving Arb salaries then sell the team. 

 

Irony.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Irony.

Another quality dude post.

[Mackus]

They only had one (Santander) this year....and he was coming off an .870 OPS and GG finalist.

Mancini would certainly been tendered if they hadn't reached a deal based on the optics of his situation at a minimum.

We heard the unprecedented report that the Orioles requested both Mancini and Santander defer part of their 2021 salaries as Arbitration players.

It's entirely likely that Armstrong and Valaika were facing non-tenders when they signed their contracts and felt the guarantee with better than the risk of FA and trying to find a ML deal.

Severino likely served as something of a buffer (with Sisco) to the Rutschman pressures.

I'd just point out that the event horizon for the Team is known. This isn't sneaking up on them and if you know where you're headed, you start working the mitigations now....ie, you don't have to deal with the risks of the tender commitments if you've traded them.

This can't possibly be the definition we're using, no need to distinguish between people who sign 1-year deals to avoid arb and people who go through the arb process. Especially not since Elias seems to be a file-and-trial advocate. They all count as people who were eligible for raises, and the important thing is whether the Orioles give them those raises or if they non-tender or trade them away to avoid it.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

So we trade arb talent, so they dont have to pay them?

Thats very telling to me, that they are not building a contender and bringing in pieces to supplement what good talent you currently have.

Thats not what has happened or is going to happen.