55 replies to this topic

[Slidemaster]

Jones had 2 years in his career with an OPS over .800.

While playing a premium defensive position.

Tejada had 7. 8 if you count the year he had an OPS of .799.

.780ish isn't good enough for a guy who only is in the majors for his bat.

[Ravens2006]

The K to BB numbers in the minors have always given me concern how he'll perform long term in the majors. The splits so far this year only exacerbate that concern. There's a difference between a credible major league bat that has some production, and a bat that makes a difference compared to what your division foes are rolling out there. I suspect he'll be an average, non difference maker type player overall. Which is fine for him, better than I could have ever achieved... but won't do much for club long term higher success.

[BSLChrisStoner]

While playing a premium defensive position.

Tejada had 7. 8 if you count the year he had an OPS of .799.

.780ish isn't good enough for a guy who only is in the majors for his bat.

I was responding to you saying Jones consistently had OPSs over .800 in his prime.

Which he didn't.

And while the advanced metrics of his day (uzr and drs) have questionable value...Jones was basically an average fielder. Above average by rep, below average by metrics, average by the eye.

Yes if Mountcastle at a non premium defensive position is different...but if he is an 800 OPS guy making nothing, that has plenty of value.

[dude]

I don't particularly care what the average is because half of those players aren't on playoff teams. But in a good lineup, it's tough to have a sub .800 OPS as a dh type unless you're surrounded by offensive talent at other positions. He's supposed to be one of the best hitters on the team.

If .780ish is his prime average, the team is in trouble.

My comment applies to more than this thread.

 

I think you grossly over-estimate what other teams have....I mean, look at the Yankees lineup.  Many people think they're the best team in the AL and most of their lineup is meh.

[Mackus]

I don't particularly care what the average is because half of those players aren't on playoff teams. But in a good lineup, it's tough to have a sub .800 OPS as a dh type unless you're surrounded by offensive talent at other positions. He's supposed to be one of the best hitters on the team.

If .780ish is his prime average, the team is in trouble.

8 of 16 playoff teams had 1B over 780 last year. And it wasn't top heavy.

6 of 16 playoff teams had DH over 780 last year. Again not weighted towards the higher seeds.

If Mountcastle is a 780 OPS bat thats fine for a while. The future of the franchise isn't remotely dependent on him being better than that. It'd be nice if he is.

[BSLRoseKatz]

He's seeing sliders at a pretty high rate, so that's definitely the book on him right now

 

[Slidemaster]

8 of 16 playoff teams had 1B over 780 last year. And it wasn't top heavy.

6 of 16 playoff teams had DH over 780 last year. Again not weighted towards the higher seeds.

If Mountcastle is a 780 OPS bat thats fine for a while. The future of the franchise isn't remotely dependent on him being better than that. It'd be nice if he is.

How many of those teams had premium hitters surrounding that 1B/DH? Whoever plays that position doesn't NEED to be a slugger if they're surrounded by great hitters at other positions, but Mountcastle is supposed to be the future of the offense. He is the best hitting prospect in the system at the moment.

If his ceiling is less than .800, that's scary.

[Mackus]

How many of those teams had premium hitters surrounding that 1B/DH? Whoever plays that position doesn't NEED to be a slugger if they're surrounded by great hitters at other positions, but Mountcastle is supposed to be the future of the offense. He is the best hitting prospect in the system at the moment.

If his ceiling is less than .800, that's scary.

 

No, it's not scary.  That's fine.  And no, Mountcastle is not supposed to be the future of the offense.  Not sure I've seen anybody suggest he's that type of bat.

[Slidemaster]

No, it's not scary. That's fine. And no, Mountcastle is not supposed to be the future of the offense. Not sure I've seen anybody suggest he's that type of bat.

If Mountcastle isn't supposed to be a critical piece of the offense moving forward, who is? He, to date, has shown more with the bat than anybody else in the system outside of Mancini, who will likely not be here when the Orioles next contend anyway.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The value of a player, to me, has three components. With age being a factor others things being similar.

 

1. Offensive performance compared to peers.

 

2. Defensive performance compared to peers.

 

3. Cost of player compared to peers.

 

So Mountcastle can be 1B/DH and hit for slightly less than his peer group and still be quite valuable to the O's when his cost is quite less than his peers. In theory that means they have more money to place elsewhere.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I think he stinks

[Slidemaster]

The value of a player, to me, has three components. With age being a factor others things being similar.

1. Offensive performance compared to peers.

2. Defensive performance compared to peers.

3. Cost of player compared to peers.

So Mountcastle can be 1B/DH and hit for slightly less than his peer group and still be quite valuable to the O's when his cost is quite less than his peers. In theory that means they have more money to place elsewhere.

I think you're right, in a vacuum.

However, this is the Orioles. Their money goes directly to ownership, not back into the team.

I'm not a huge salary cap guy, but one thing I like about it is that when you're way below the cap, it's even more apparent how little you're trying to win. Establishing a ceiling sort of encourages a franchise to approach it.

[Mackus]

If Mountcastle isn't supposed to be a critical piece of the offense moving forward, who is? He, to date, has shown more with the bat than anybody else in the system outside of Mancini, who will likely not be here when the Orioles next contend anyway.

A contributor with the bat and "the future of the offense" are wildly different things. You're implying that the Orioles are doomed if he's not a 900 OPS bat. Well he almost certainly isn't going to be that, he's never been that in the minors. He doesn't have the plate discipline to achieve that even if he does have a strong hit tool and power.

So I guess either give up forever or come to the realization that plenty of very good to great offenses have 1B or DH on the 750-850 OPS range.

[Slidemaster]

A contributor with the bat and "the future of the offense" are wildly different things. You're implying that the Orioles are doomed if he's not a 900 OPS bat. Well he almost certainly isn't going to be that, he's never been that in the minors. He doesn't have the plate discipline to achieve that even if he does have a strong hit tool and power.

So I guess either give up forever or come to the realization that plenty of very good to great offenses have 1B or DH on the 750-850 OPS range.

Nobody said "give up forever." Stop being a drama queen. I also never said that Mountcastle needed to be a .900+ OPS guy. Two straw-men in one post is impressive.

I think we're kidding ourselves if we're trying to rationalize why Mountcastle being an underwhelming hitter us ok. He's one of their best prospects, who's bat has always been his ticket to the majors. There is nobody in the minors who has shown more offensive potential in professional ball. When your beat hitting prospect is underwhelming, that is a reason for concern.

This lineup has very little firepower, there don't appear to be any elite hitting prospects in their system, and they can't/won't participate in meaningful FA signings. These are signs of a team that might not be on track as we hoped.

[Mackus]

"Mountcastle is supposed to be the future of the offense"

"780 OPS bat which isn't good enough for someone who doesn't have a position"

"If his ceiling is less than 800 that's scary"

"If 780 is his prime average this team is in trouble"

But go ahead and say I'm being dramatic and making up straw men to tear down. That's as accurate as everything else you've said in this thread.

[Slidemaster]

"Mountcastle is supposed to be the future of the offense"

"780 OPS bat which isn't good enough for someone who doesn't have a position"

"If his ceiling is less than 800 that's scary"

"If 780 is his prime average this team is in trouble"

But go ahead and say I'm being dramatic and making up straw men to tear down. That's as accurate as everything else you've said in this thread.

Thanks for pointing out that at no point did I say any of the bilge you said I did. Saves me the trouble. The way you interpret and run with my words is neither my problem nor my responsibility.

[Mackus]

What did I say you said? I said you implied the Orioles are doomed if he isn't a 900 OPS bat, which is the only meaning that can be taken from your posts in this thread. If you mean something else, then say something else.

[Slidemaster]

What did I say you said? I said you implied the Orioles are doomed if he isn't a 900 OPS bat, which is the only meaning that can be taken from your posts in this thread. If you mean something else, then say something else.

Nobody said "give up forever." Stop being a drama queen. I also never said that Mountcastle needed to be a .900+ OPS guy.

I said they were in trouble. I never said "doomed." If that's the "only meaning" you can take from my words than you're more fatalistic than I am.

[Mackus]

You frequently make wild and inaccurate posts and then try to wiggle out of it by claiming people aren't understanding your words correctly. Maybe it's not everybody else all the time.

[Slidemaster]

You frequently make wild and inaccurate posts and then try to wiggle out of it by claiming people aren't understanding your words correctly. Maybe it's not everybody else all the time.

1. I said nothing wild or inaccurate.
2. Using the excuse of "you frequently say..." is weak.
3. You're dead wrong about this.