Photo

Thoughts on Mountcastle in 2021?


  • Please log in to reply
55 replies to this topic

#41 Pedro Cerrano

Pedro Cerrano

    I Miss McNulty

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 35,429 posts
  • LocationEllicott City, MD

Posted 28 April 2021 - 07:53 PM

We’re only a few months away from the Ravens going 0-17!
  • Mackus likes this

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

@bopper33


#42 russsnyder

russsnyder

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,991 posts

Posted 29 April 2021 - 03:32 AM

We’re only a few months away from the Ravens going 0-17!


That would mirror an average week of Mountcastle at bats!
  • Ravens2006 likes this
<p>"F IT!, Let's hit." Ted Williams

#43 weird-O

weird-O

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,183 posts
  • LocationI'm here from downtown, I'm here from Mitch and Murray.

Posted 29 April 2021 - 07:55 AM

I don't think Slidemaster needs me to interpret his comments. But I see his point. Mountcastle is regarded as the best hitter in the system. If he doesn't qualify as an upper tier MLB bat, that suggests the Orioles system isn't developing players to compare with the premium prospects we've seen in the systems of other teams. Perhaps that will change under Elias, hence the avoidance of the word "Doomed" to describe the possible future of the system. At the very least, it can't be denied that the system isn't exactly on the cusp of producing impact players. So in terms of developing a pipeline of impact players, we may all be a lot older, before that promise comes to pass.


Good news! I saw a dog today.


#44 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 60,359 posts

Posted 29 April 2021 - 08:16 AM

I don't think Slidemaster needs me to interpret his comments. But I see his point. Mountcastle is regarded as the best hitter in the system. If he doesn't qualify as an upper tier MLB bat, that suggests the Orioles system isn't developing players to compare with the premium prospects we've seen in the systems of other teams. Perhaps that will change under Elias, hence the avoidance of the word "Doomed" to describe the possible future of the system. At the very least, it can't be denied that the system isn't exactly on the cusp of producing impact players. So in terms of developing a pipeline of impact players, we may all be a lot older, before that promise comes to pass.

 

I think it's a fallacy to use how well a single prospect hits once they reach the majors to judge the quality of an entire developmental system.  The overall trends and wider outcomes are what's important.  I definitely agree that the Orioles have a lot of work to do there and I won't believe they are producing enough talent until I see it on the field in Baltimore.  But I'll feel that way even if Mountcastle turns into a star.  One guy booming or busting or somewhere in betweening on their own doesn't mean much, if it did, we could point to Mancini as proof that the Orioles had a great system a few years ago or point to Sisco as proof that they didn't.

 

My bigger gripe is the comment about how if Mountcastle isn't an impact bat that things will be difficult for the Orioles overall as if the outcome of the Orioles rebuilding efforts hinge on any one guy, the unawareness of how much 1B and DH as a group produce, and the statement that being merely average at those positions isn't good enough, as if the offense of every good team is driven by one of the better hitters in the league at both positions.  Whether Mountcastle is great or terrible, we'll still need a lot of help from several other positions in order to be a good offense.  This is baseball.  You need a lot of people to be good.  That means one great hitter won't make your team just like one weak spot won't sink it.



#45 Slidemaster

Slidemaster

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,833 posts

Posted 29 April 2021 - 08:44 AM

I think it's a fallacy to use how well a single prospect hits once they reach the majors to judge the quality of an entire developmental system. The overall trends and wider outcomes are what's important. I definitely agree that the Orioles have a lot of work to do there and I won't believe they are producing enough talent until I see it on the field in Baltimore. But I'll feel that way even if Mountcastle turns into a star. One guy booming or busting or somewhere in betweening on their own doesn't mean much, if it did, we could point to Mancini as proof that the Orioles had a great system a few years ago or point to Sisco as proof that they didn't.

My bigger gripe is the comment about how if Mountcastle isn't an impact bat that things will be difficult for the Orioles overall as if the outcome of the Orioles rebuilding efforts hinge on any one guy, the unawareness of how much 1B and DH as a group produce, and the statement that being merely average at those positions isn't good enough, as if the offense of every good team is driven by one of the better hitters in the league at both positions. Whether Mountcastle is great or terrible, we'll still need a lot of help from several other positions in order to be a good offense. This is baseball. You need a lot of people to be good. That means one great hitter won't make your team just like one weak spot won't sink it.

1. I'm not "unaware" of how an average 1b/dh produces. I just happen to be of the opinion that the Orioles' best prospects are going to need to be above average if this team ever wants to compete. This isn't isn't franchise where regularly bringing league average guys up from the system to play supporting roles next to the stars is going to work. The stars have to come from the system, because there aren't any on the MLB squad. Mountcastle was regarded for years as one of their best hitters, and it's an ominous sign if a guy the O's viewed as a cornerstone of their lineup is this mediocre.

2. Yes, obviously one guy doesn't determine the outcome of others, but let's be honest with ourselves here - the O's routinely overvalue their own prospects, and they have a history of flaming out in the big leagues (especially the pitching). It's a trend we've watched play out for decades. How on earth do the Orioles not have even one major leaguer who is a slam dunk top 10 at his position guy after having as many chances to draft high up as they have? With a few notable exceptions over the last 20+ years, they just don't develop above average talent with any regularity.

3. I'm sorry you're so triggered over my opinion of the 2020 Ravens, but that isn't my problem or relevant to this conversation. Get over it.

#46 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 60,359 posts

Posted 29 April 2021 - 08:46 AM

1. I'm not "unaware" of how an average 1b/dh produces

 

You were when you said that 780 OPS wasn't good enough for those spots.  And then when you were told the reality, you ignored the information and changed the argument to that not being good enough for playoff teams.  Then when told that half of the recent playoff teams had less than that production, you said well that's because they have other good hitters.  Of course it is, the teams that had 1B/DH above that line also had other good hitters.  



#47 Slidemaster

Slidemaster

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,833 posts

Posted 29 April 2021 - 08:52 AM

You were when you said that 780 OPS wasn't good enough for those spots. And then when you were told the reality, you ignored the information and changed the argument to that not being good enough for playoff teams. Then when told that half of the recent playoff teams had less than that production, you said well that's because they have other good hitters. Of course it is, the teams that had 1B/DH above that line also had other good hitters.

When your best hitter is playing that position, it isn't. I never "changed the argument" to it not being good enough for playoff teams. When someone complains that something isn't good enough, it's always in the context of making the playoffs or winning a championship. Why would I even care about Mountcastle if I didnt care about wanting the O's to be a playoff contender?

You've ignored multiple times when I've said that a .780 OPS guy is fine in that role if he's surrounded by other offensive talent.

Mountcastle is not.

By the way, your lack of response to the rest of my post is a weak way of conceding the point, but I suppose it will have to do.

#48 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 60,359 posts

Posted 29 April 2021 - 08:58 AM

Why does Mountcastle have to be the best hitter?  Since when has that been the assumption?

 

He's the current best hitting prospect.  That is true (if we don't count Rutschman since he hasn't played at higher levels).  That doesn't mean he'll have to be the best MLB hitter.   Matt Wieters was the best hitting prospect ten years ago and developed into only a decent hitter and those teams still had success.

 

He can be merely a good hitter and that's fine.  It'd be better if he's better than that.  But being merely only that good isn't devastating to next several years of the team.  Even if he's not even good, that still won't change things dramatically, since he's still just one guy. It's always good to check off spots, but if something falls through, you go and find another alternative.  How well the Orioles find everyone else will be what defines the rebuild and the future.  Moutncastle is only a small part of it, even if only considering the offense.


  • mweb08 likes this

#49 Slidemaster

Slidemaster

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,833 posts

Posted 29 April 2021 - 09:00 AM

Why does Mountcastle have to be the best hitter? Since when has that been the assumption?

He's the current best hitting prospect. That is true (if we don't count Rutschman since he hasn't played at higher levels). That doesn't mean he'll have to be the best MLB hitter.

He doesn't "have" to be, but he was projected to be the best (or among the best). When the guy you project to be the best on the team is one of the worst, that is an ominous sign.

Someone in this system has to rake. Someone has to drive the offense. Who is going to do it? Adley is the only person who looks like he has a chance based on pedigree, and that's an awfully tough job for a catcher to do.

#50 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,573 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 01 May 2021 - 11:59 PM

This was alluded to earlier, but here's a list of guys that are glad April is done.

 

Last year, 30 games was half the season.  We're only a sixth the way home right now.



#51 hallas

hallas

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,509 posts
  • LocationDaniel Larusso's hometown

Posted 04 May 2021 - 05:38 PM

Why does Mountcastle have to be the best hitter? Since when has that been the assumption?

He's the current best hitting prospect. That is true (if we don't count Rutschman since he hasn't played at higher levels). That doesn't mean he'll have to be the best MLB hitter. Matt Wieters was the best hitting prospect ten years ago and developed into only a decent hitter and those teams still had success.

He can be merely a good hitter and that's fine. It'd be better if he's better than that. But being merely only that good isn't devastating to next several years of the team. Even if he's not even good, that still won't change things dramatically, since he's still just one guy. It's always good to check off spots, but if something falls through, you go and find another alternative. How well the Orioles find everyone else will be what defines the rebuild and the future. Moutncastle is only a small part of it, even if only considering the offense.


I think that Mountcastle, as our best hitting prospect, not looking like an impact bat, combined with the sad reality that no one else is stepping up, is enough to indict the team's talent pipeline. Granted it will be another year or two before we see the results of Elias' work, but it's still disconcerting.

#52 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 60,359 posts

Posted 04 May 2021 - 06:28 PM

How do we know nobody else is stepping up? Minor league games haven't even started.

And one prospect failing (if you wanna vastly prematurely say Mountcastle has failed) indicts a system? Sorry, can't agree with anything remotely close to that. Prospects are far more volatile than you seem to think.
  • BSLRoseKatz likes this

#53 BobPhelan

BobPhelan

    OTV

  • Moderators
  • 14,498 posts
  • LocationBel Air, MD

Posted 04 May 2021 - 09:51 PM

Yeah thats pure insanity. One player's worst month of his professional career means the whole player development system is corrupt and we're doomed? Ok.


  • BSLRoseKatz likes this

#54 Slidemaster

Slidemaster

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,833 posts

Posted 05 May 2021 - 12:36 AM

Yeah thats pure insanity. One player's worst month of his professional career means the whole player development system is corrupt and we're doomed? Ok.


Nobody said that.

#55 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 23,247 posts

Posted 05 May 2021 - 01:29 AM

Hes not a lock to be an .800 OPS and up bat but he is a legit ML caliber bat. He hits the ball too hard. The hits and xbhs will start coming. He also has shown an ability to adjust and adapt which will serve him well in the long run.


Contrast him to Stewart who has a good approach and eye but just doesnt appear to have enough contact skills. Or contrast him to Hays who shows he has some juice in his bat but can be overmatched too often. Mountcastle is clearly a step ahead.
  • You Play to Win the Game, BobPhelan, BSLSteveBirrer and 1 other like this

#56 Il BuonO

Il BuonO

    Opposite Field Power

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 896 posts
  • LocationGeorgetown, TX

Posted 07 May 2021 - 05:54 AM

I’d like to see him start pulling the ball and that’s not something for which I usually advocate. He’s inside/out on a lot of swings right now hitting weak fly outs to the right side.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users


Our Sponsors


 width=