55 replies to this topic

[FL O's Fan]

Watching the team thus far this season (SSS of course), I would say Ryan Mountcastle is the only player that could have a future with us that I've been a little concerned about. I'm more one to listen to advance stats rather than try to interpret, but I did look up his BABIP.

 

I did not realize that last year his BABIP was .398. Right now it's .240. I know his K rate is up and walk rate down, which kind of seems like him coming back to earth a bit toward his minor league career to balance out last year.

 

Personally, I think I got a little too hyped based off of his performance last year in a SSS. I was hoping he could keep up the walk improvement and settle in as a MOO, 900 OPS kind of guy.

 

Taking a second look after this slump, even last year with the high BABIP and the 330 BA, his OPS was 878. Which highlights what many of the scouting reports said about him. Great hitter, good power, but lacking patience, which could ultimately cap his ceiling, especially if he's stuck at DH. Still likely to be a valuable player or "nugget" to use a Buck term, but my expectations for him have come down to earth a bit these first 22 games. 

 

What say you? 

 

 

 

[Mackus]

Miguel Tejada is the comp I've been thinking for the bat, at least for upside, IMO.  Not quite as much hit tool as Miggi but I'm hopeful he will have more power.  He'll never walk, but he isn't completely without an approach at the plate like Austin Hays where he swings at absolutely everything.  He's not just a mistake hitter, he can do damage on good pitches.  I think he'll hit for good average and power, but the OBP will always be a struggle and limit his upside.

 

I have little doubt that he'll establish himself as an MLB caliber hitter. But do have doubts that overall he'll be good enough to be an asset offensively at either 1B or DH, he may settle more as just a guy there, and if that's the case then you probably don't look to keep him beyond his years of control.  The limitations to his game will also limit his earnings potential.

 

I'm disappointed by his awful start to the season, but I do think the statline looks a lot worse than he himself does at the plate.  I believe he'll turn it around and look more like the guy we wanted to see.  I don't think he's a 300+ BA guy or 500+ SLG guy though.

[BSLChrisStoner]

There were always questions with his plate discipline coming up; right now they are being exploited. 

Last Fall we saw him when he was hot. 
So far this Spring, we're seeing him when he is cold. 

I think he's going to be a very productive bat for a long time; that's held back at-times due to his propensity to chase. 

I'm excited to have him under long-term team control... and think he absolutely belongs at 1st / DH, and will be productive at those spots, especially when you account for his contract. 

Wish he had got off to a strong start instead of struggling... but I'm not concerned.  Keep writing his name in the lineup 150+ times this year, and let him go through the struggles and adjustments.  

He could easily be as scorching in May, as much as he's struggled here in April.

[Mike B]

I think Ryan is his own worst enemy right now.  he is getting himself out, IMO more than the pitchers, he is facing. 

We have seen this before with young players.  I think he will get it going.    

[dude]

It's hard to be a .900 OPS bat.  

 

The history of Baseball validates that so layering that type of expectation on anyone (including Cedric) will always lead to disappointment.

 

If's he's an .800-.850 OPS bat, he's doing great.

 

His game has the challenges it has.  I'd be less worried about trying to change him and just let him do whatever he does.  Changes have to come internally because internal acceptance will drive those results, not external pressure.

 

He will continue to get opportunity well into whatever his performance is because we believe there's something there.  1SP.

[Mackus]

Yeah 900 is too high of an expectation given how little he walks, but I didn't take the original post as meaning he thought that Mountcastle could actually be that, just that it was the place he went envisioning Mountcastle at his absolute best.  He might be able to have a season like that, maybe a 315/365/535 type line, if everything goes right for a year but I don't think he's got much hope of sustaining that.

 

Still, 280/320/480 would be a decent enough bat to handle 1B or DH. Just wouldn't be a borderline All-Star like we want him to be.  He'll have to develop the ability to draw more walks while maintaining the other skills if he's gonna be a bigger asset.

[BSLRoseKatz]

 

Agreed with all the points on the discipline. He's elevating the ball much more than last year based on the groundball/flyball ratio, but it's not producing anything.  

[BSLRoseKatz]

 

Wanted to see what 40% fly balls did so here's the 10 people doing that so far, sorted by their ISO power 

[Slidemaster]

I think Mountcastle is better than this, but not as good as last year. Probably a .780 OPS bat, which isn't good enough for someone who can't play a position.

[Mackus]

Sure it is. What do you think the average OPS is for 1B or DH?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I need to lock in and pay more attention to his ABs. My gut says ultimately Adam Jones's bat but I do think he's capable of figuring out how to walk more than Jones did.

[dude]

Jones was an average .771 OPS, Tejada (I like that comp too) was an average .791 OPS.

 

I think those are the right comp ranges and adjust up for the run environment a little.

 

I think Hays is in a similar boat.

 

That is good.  The separation for Jones and Tejada is they were playing CF and SS versus LF and DH.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Mountcastle is going to strikeout at a pretty good rate more than Miggy did. But I understand the comp and that Im being nitpicky

[Mackus]

Right, Jones and Tejada were franchise type guys because they hit well and played premium defensive positions.

 

Mountcastle and Hays project as solid starters if they hit their ceiling.  Hays should be a really good defensive LF so that still has value and he's got much more wiggle room on the bat.  He's got a far more suspect bat though, IMO, I'll be pleasantly surprised if it ends up being good enough to stick in the majors.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Jones was an average .771 OPS, Tejada (I like that comp too) was an average .791 OPS.

I think those are the right comp ranges and adjust up for the run environment a little.

I think Hays is in a similar boat.

That is good. The separation for Jones and Tejada is they were playing CF and SS versus LF and DH.

I dont see Hays in any boat resembling the others. Though he does bring more defensive value than Mountcastle.

[russsnyder]

I think Ryan is his own worst enemy right now.  he is getting himself out, IMO more than the pitchers, he is facing. 

We have seen this before with young players.  I think he will get it going.    

 

  This.

 

  You can tell that he is pressing at the plate right now.

 

   I heard Hyde about a week ago saying that he gave Mountcastle a night off because of how hard he has been on himself.

 

   He'll hit, he has to trust his swing again.

 

   It looks to me like he is feeling for the ball at the plate right now.

 

   Slumps happen and I am not too worried at this point in time.

[Slidemaster]

Jones was an average .771 OPS, Tejada (I like that comp too) was an average .791 OPS.

I think those are the right comp ranges and adjust up for the run environment a little.

I think Hays is in a similar boat.

That is good. The separation for Jones and Tejada is they were playing CF and SS versus LF and DH.

Looking at their lifetime OPS isn't a fair comp. In their prime both were well above .800. I don't know if Mountcastle gets there.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Looking at their lifetime OPS isn't a fair comp. In their prime both were well above .800. I don't know if Mountcastle gets there.

Jones had 2 years in his career with an OPS over .800.

[Slidemaster]

Sure it is. What do you think the average OPS is for 1B or DH?

I don't particularly care what the average is because half of those players aren't on playoff teams. But in a good lineup, it's tough to have a sub .800 OPS as a dh type unless you're surrounded by offensive talent at other positions. He's supposed to be one of the best hitters on the team.

If .780ish is his prime average, the team is in trouble.

[Mike B]

Mountcastle is very young, and he is in his first rough patch.  setting ceilings on him as far as numbers go is extremely premature IMO.