138 replies to this topic

[jamesdean]

Tillman was Ok....nothing special.  I think Bedard had more natural talent. 

[RShack]

I loved watching Bedard pitch...  nothing against Tillman, but I found nothing about him fun...

[hallas]

Big Tillman fan... never threw 220 innings.

Dammit, called out. I thought he did. The 206 and 207 is still pretty good.

[jamesdean]

Dammit, called out. I thought he did. The 206 and 207 is still pretty good.

By today's standards, 200 innings is astounding.  By Jim Palmer's standards, it's a joke.  I'll go with Jim.  

[dude]

ACE

 

I just wanted to point out the absurdity of using a game-to-game approach to using macro labels.

 

I like him just as much as I did a month ago and my position doesn't have to change one bit.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I just wanted to point out the absurdity of using a game-to-game approach to using macro labels.

 

I like him just as much as I did a month ago and my position doesn't have to change one bit.

I just want to point out the absurdity of using a single post which was clearly lighthearted to ...never mind.....

[jamesdean]

I just want to point out the absurdity of using a single post which was clearly lighthearted to ...never mind.....

I know.  Every post has to be this overanalyzed, "let me show you what a brilliant mind I have" drivel that ultimately goes nowhere.  It's a microcosm of everything I can't stand about today's sports.   You can't be lighthearted or satirical on this forum. You'd think most of these guys here were on the Orioles/Ravens payroll. 

[BaltBird 24]

I know. Every post has to be this overanalyzed, "let me show you what a brilliant mind I have" drivel that ultimately goes nowhere. It's a microcosm of everything I can't stand about today's sports. You can't be lighthearted or satirical on this forum. You'd think most of these guys here were on the Orioles/Ravens payroll.

They aren't?

[dude]

....because what the public space needs is terrible, uninformed and unmerited opinion.  Awesome.

[jamesdean]

They aren't?

LOL!

[jamesdean]

....because what the public space needs is terrible, uninformed and unmerited opinion.  Awesome.

Yeah, but look at the bright side....the terrible, uniformed and unmerited group gives you guys a chance to show your intellectual and analytical superiority.  

[dude]

You can move forward with risk, but today, 2022 is 5M, '23 is 8.5M, '24 is 12.5M, take your first FA year at 18M and throw in a 10M player option to mitigate some risk. add a 2M signing bonus for jumping now.  That's 5/56M and you can be a FA after 4/46M. 

 

Sandy Alcantara signed a 5/56 contract extension with the Marlins today.  He has 3.100 service and an ERA+ of 121.

 

Means has 3.007 service and a career ERA+ of 122.

[Mashed Potatoes]

The real question is, is Joe Flacco "elite"?

[Mashed Potatoes]

"Because he's the ace Baltimore deserves, but not the one it needs right now. So we'll hunt him. Because he can take it. Because he's not our ace. He's a silent guardian, a watchful protector. A dark knight."

[Mike in STL]

Sandy Alcantara signed a 5/56 contract extension with the Marlins today. He has 3.100 service and an ERA+ of 121.

Means has 3.007 service and a career ERA+ of 122.

A few contracts like that to fill out the rotation should be well within the Orioles range. Max Scherzer is nice. But for the same AAV you can have three #2-3 starters. That should be what the O’s are aiming for.

[Mackus]

A few contracts like that to fill out the rotation should be well within the Orioles range. Max Scherzer is nice. But for the same AAV you can have three #2-3 starters. That should be what the O’s are aiming for.

 

Two of these guys cost what Scherzer got, not three.  Unless you're counting cheaper deals like Kluber.  Which is fine.

 

This deal for Alcantara is really like a $16-18.5M/year AAV depending on if he picks up the $10M player option or not (he won't unless he's quite bad or injured by then).  3 arb years and then 1 or 2 FA years is not the same as a deal that covers 4 or 5 FA years.

 

That AAV is also cheaper than what he'd have gotten as a FA, since the FA years being bought out are so far into the future.  So it's really more like a discount down from $20M or so based on getting the security when he didn't have any.  Player gets security, team gets a discount.  So that's a little below the $22M that Ray and Gausman just got.

 

 

The real problem is the Orioles need both one Scherzer AND three #2/3 types.  Hopefully we can develop most of it, I've got no confidence that they'll sign anyone (certain they won't this year, don't think they will in the future).  Means is a nice start.  But we've got nothing else that matters.  Hopefully Rodriguez exceeds all the lofty expectations and contributes at a high level right away, but an early struggle would be completely typical even for top-10 SP prospects.

[BaltBird 24]

I'd be content with three or four #5 types.... you know, guys who can pitch to an ERA somewhere over 5 but under 7.

[Mike in STL]

Two of these guys cost what Scherzer got, not three.  Unless you're counting cheaper deals like Kluber.  Which is fine.

 

This deal for Alcantara is really like a $16-18.5M/year AAV depending on if he picks up the $10M player option or not (he won't unless he's quite bad or injured by then).  3 arb years and then 1 or 2 FA years is not the same as a deal that covers 4 or 5 FA years.

 

That AAV is also cheaper than what he'd have gotten as a FA, since the FA years being bought out are so far into the future.  So it's really more like a discount down from $20M or so based on getting the security when he didn't have any.  Player gets security, team gets a discount.  So that's a little below the $22M that Ray and Gausman just got.

 

 

The real problem is the Orioles need both one Scherzer AND three #2/3 types.  Hopefully we can develop most of it, I've got no confidence that they'll sign anyone (certain they won't this year, don't think they will in the future).  Means is a nice start.  But we've got nothing else that matters.  Hopefully Rodriguez exceeds all the lofty expectations and contributes at a high level right away, but an early struggle would be completely typical even for top-10 SP prospects.

Again, laziness on my part. Thanks for the breakdown. I was using the $11M as a round number (5/56 = 11.2). Scherzer getting 43.3M AAV (3/130). The O's should be able to get three pitchers good enough that together raise the payroll $33M or more, but not more than $43M. Means as your 1, even if he's a 2 on some rosters. 3 FA additions that would be most teams 3, on this team one a 2, one a 3, one a 4. 8 guys in house fight for the 5th spot. 

 

If you are competitive, and with the #1 farm system, you can get a Scherzer type for the stretch run to get you over the top, without paying the full freight in dollars. Like how the Astros landed Verlander. Got him in the trade with two years and $40M still owed. You can't get a Verlander/Scherzer/Kershaw on the FA market for 2/$40M.  But if you can rob a stupid team like the O's got robbed for Machado...I mean, this is one reason to build a deep farm system, right? You want to have some of these guys directly contribute. You want some of these guys to be pieces other teams want in trade. 

[Mike in STL]

^^^

 

When the rotation was Tillman, Chen, Norris, Gausman, Gonzalez, that was like having five, #2 starters. I don't know how much salary that was considering Tillman, Gaus, M.Gon, were on the cheap. Chen I think came cheap. Norris probably didn't cost much. 

 

Right now, Means could be Tillman. But no one else on the roster is even close to worthy of starting MLB games.

 

You hope G.Rod can be Gausman on this list. I hope he's on the fast track, and even if he struggles in his first taste, it's to the tune of maybe a 4.00 ERA, not 6.00+. But still number three starter stuff, with potential to be an ace in 23'.

 

Hall I can't count on yet with his injury status.

 

You pray that one of Lowther, Baumann, Bradish, Zim...emerges as a solid rotational option on the cheap, call them M.Gon on this list.

 

So creatively add at least two FAs. Put the nerd cave to the test. 

 

Ideally:

2022

Means - plays to #1-#2 level

FA - plays to a #3 level

FA - #3

G.Rod - #3-#4

One of the in house guys emerges - #3-#4

 

2023

Means - #1

G.Rod - #1-2

FA signed in 22' - #3

FA signed in 22' - #3

Whomever emerged in 22' - #3

 

2022 would be building. 2023 would be contending. Which is where they should be.