81 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

BSL: Orioles: Still Rough In ’21, Better In ’22, A Contender In ’23

https://baltimorespo...ontender-in-23/

[Mackus]

I think the current roster has fewer spots that are completely hopeless, but I think that even most of the young guys are here it's hard to either see them being both likely to hit their ceiling and likely to be really good if they do.    I don't think we have anyone in the organization other than Rutschman and Rodriguez who project to be very good.  We've got a good crop of young guys who could be average to good.  And you need those guys, lots of them.  But you also need at least 3-4 star level guys.  I'm not sure I see that.  

 

I can see the team project as a low 80s win team within a couple years if we get relatively low attrition from the group of nice but not great prospects, but I still don't see how this squad gets to look like a 90+ win team on paper which is what my goal would be.  If they spend and bring in those two stars on top of a low 80s team, maybe that gets you there.

 

I still don't think the timeline of this article feels very realistic, and even if it does, isn't that already delayed from what people fully supportive of Elias' plan have been projecting?  Was there an article or post in 2019 saying the team would contend in 2021?  How much further will we need to keep pushing out the date?

[You Play to Win the Game]

Agreed with Mack, but they should make that realistic whatever it takes. Sign some stupid contracts, I don't care. If this is the making of another 15 year drought of not contending, I'm going to tap out here soon. Brutal to watch this disgusting product for 5 years now.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think the current roster has fewer spots that are completely hopeless, but I think that even most of the young guys are here it's hard to either see them being both likely to hit their ceiling and likely to be really good if they do. I don't think we have anyone in the organization other than Rutschman and Rodriguez who project to be very good. We've got a good crop of young guys who could be average to good. And you need those guys, lots of them. But you also need at least 3-4 star level guys. I'm not sure I see that.

I can see the team project as a low 80s win team within a couple years if we get relatively low attrition from the group of nice but not great prospects, but I still don't see how this squad gets to look like a 90+ win team on paper which is what my goal would be. If they spend and bring in those two stars on top of a low 80s team, maybe that gets you there.

I still don't think the timeline of this article feels very realistic, and even if it does, isn't that already delayed from what people fully supportive of Elias' plan have been projecting? Was there an article or post in 2019 saying the team would contend in 2021? How much further will we need to keep pushing out the date?

Timeline...maybe somewhere, but hasn't been an article here ever that said they would be ready to compete in '21.

You need a couple of stars and the avoidance of black holes.

Re: Elias... there is no valid excuse to not add around what exists this coming offseason.

[Mackus]

I really don't have an issue with Chris' projections from this point forward.  I think it's good to have a positive outlook and there are certainly some reasons to be optimistic about the future.  I'm not as optimistic but that doesn't make me right or him wrong.

 

I just hate a lot of what they've done to get to this point.  I hate it so much.  I don't even ask for as much as dude wanting the team to attempt to be good all the time.  I just want to be normal, routinely bad when we're bad and working towards being good eventually.  The tanking really rubs me the wrong way particularly because I think it is completely pointless towards the goal of becoming good again.  High picks aren't the same in baseball as other sports, it's not worth sacrificing competitiveness to attain them.  And the salary being saved by not having some competent fill-ins will never be reinvested into the team.  If either above point were not true, then I'd be accepting of tanking.  But both are incredibly difficult to argue against and negate any perceived benefit of being this bad.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I disagree with Stoners timeline. Its very difficult to see '23 being a year of contention. Now, if playoffs are expanded and an 80ish win can overachieve a bit and make the playoffs then I guess we could be a contender. No way I see us winning 90+ battling for a division in '23. In Mack's opinion he only sees Rodriguez and Adley as having potential to be very good. Thats a fair assessment based on what we know. This is why the minor league season is so important. Its why losing the '20 MiL season was such a kick in the balls to Elias and his team. With a '20 MiL season its conceivable guys like Henderson and Hall take the next step and now can be more easily projected as very good players in the Show. Maybe Baumann and Lowther continued to dominate AA and AAA and forced us to reevaluate how good they might be in Bal. In addition to many others that pop onto or continue to be on our radar. Its why Im so looking forward to the start of the minor league season. Its obviously fun to watch guys like Mullins, Mountcastle, Kremer, Hays, etc every day in BMore but for me the real anticipation and most important things to keep track of will be happening in the minors.

[Mackus]

Just to elaborate, I think several guys beyond Rodriguez and Rutschman have the potential to be very good.  Those are the only two for whom I think that outcome is the expectation.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Just to elaborate, I think several guys beyond Rodriguez and Rutschman have the potential to be very good. Those are the only two for whom I think that outcome is the expectation.

Based on what we know thats fair but your opinion could have changed with a '20 season. Its fluid.

[Mackus]

Based on what we know thats fair but your opinion could have changed with a '20 season. Its fluid.

Sure, a season is a fairly long time in the life cycle of a prospect.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Based on what we know thats fair but your opinion could have changed with a '20 season. Its fluid.

Not only do I think its fair but I agree about those two being in a different tier than the other prospects. I just think we'd see things more optimistically had we had a '20 season. I believe in what we are doing from a scouting and player development standpoint.

[NewMarketSean]

I think 2023 is the earliest this team could be decent. Competitive. Finish around .500. But you’ll absolutely need to sign FAs to compliment the base you’re developing. Not unlike what the Padres have done. Maybe not a $300M contract but big contracts for upper tier FAs. I just don’t believe ownership is willing to do that now or soon. And I don’t trust the organization to continuously develop talent like TB has done so that you don’t need to rely on FA. So 2023 will likely become 2025, 2027, etc until we’re back in the extended dark ages before 2012.

[dude]

Congratulations on building your house.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Congratulations on building your house.

Thanks!

[bmore_ken]

That was a fun couple of weeks. When's the NFL draft?

[bmore_ken]

I think 2023 is the earliest this team could be decent. Competitive. Finish around .500. But you’ll absolutely need to sign FAs to compliment the base you’re developing. Not unlike what the Padres have done. Maybe not a $300M contract but big contracts for upper tier FAs. I just don’t believe ownership is willing to do that now or soon. And I don’t trust the organization to continuously develop talent like TB has done so that you don’t need to rely on FA. So 2023 will likely become 2025, 2027, etc until we’re back in the extended dark ages before 2012.

Totally agree. Elias apparently lost his Houston mojo. 

[Slidemaster]

I'm going to wait to pass judgement on Elias's rebuilding until I see what the prospects drafted, acquired, and/or developed under his watch turn into.

With that said, I'm pretty lukewarm on the results so far. Mountcastle is off to a horrible start, and his ceiling is probably that of a league-average regular. Nothing wrong with that, but those guys don't put you into contention. The pitching has been a mixed bag as well, and there is just a lot of lukewarm, milquetoast type guys on this squad that make it hard for me to get excited.

I hope the stars are in the minors, but if Adley, Gray-Rod, Hall, etc. prove to be good-not-great, the rebuild is going to stall quickly.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I'm going to wait to pass judgement on Elias's rebuilding until I see what the prospects drafted, acquired, and/or developed under his watch turn into.

With that said, I'm pretty lukewarm on the results so far. Mountcastle is off to a horrible start, and his ceiling is probably that of a league-average regular. Nothing wrong with that, but those guys don't put you into contention. The pitching has been a mixed bag as well, and there is just a lot of lukewarm, milquetoast type guys on this squad that make it hard for me to get excited.

I hope the stars are in the minors, but if Adley, Gray-Rod, Hall, etc. prove to be good-not-great, the rebuild is going to stall quickly.

Its not going to stall if the player development and scouting is on point. People need to stop be consumed by the individual names and hopefully start to appreciate the process that can churn out ML players.

[Mackus]

Its not going to stall if the player development and scouting is on point. People need to stop be consumed by the individual names and hopefully start to appreciate the process that can churn out ML players.

I just don't see why some are so confident that process exists here.

I hope dearly that it's true, I just will need to see it to believe it.

Losing a full year and more of public development certainly hurts in terms of convincing fans and getting more buy-in. That's unfortunate.

[weird-O]

The Orioles need to draft more than one impact player each year, it's that simple. Because they have no intention of entering the tier 1 level of the FA market. The Angelos group's aversion to that practice is no longer in question. It's been decades since they were players in the impact FA market. That trend isn't ending, ever. 

[Old Man]

The Orioles need to draft more than one impact player each year, it's that simple. Because they have no intention of entering the tier 1 level of the FA market. The Angelos group's aversion to that practice is no longer in question. It's been decades since they were players in the impact FA market. That trend isn't ending, ever. 

I think you have to separate the Angelos.

 

Just because their last name is the same, mean, they will act like their daddy.

 

There were never into the international market, and yet now they are.

 

Will they have deep pockets for a tier 1 FA, most likely not.

 

But, some solid tier 2, would help fill in the gaps.