31 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

To my eye he looks plus but not plus-plus defensively.  I don't know exactly how that translates to WAR and no idea how accurate my scouting is.

 

And about now is when Chris will want to chime in that the Orioles at least don't think the publicly available defensive metrics are worth much .  So we may not even be talking in units that really have any truth behind them even if the general idea is something we're familiar with.

 

  Just with DRS and UZR.   The Statcast numbers make sense to look at imo.

 

Plus vs. Plus Plus... his lack of arm strength would factor there. 

[Mackus]

Has Elias or Mejdal spoke on the overall scale of defensive numbers?  By that I mean not whether someone truly is a +20 run defender versus a -10 run defender, but merely if they think that is the appropriate range regardless of the system used to gauge the quality?

 

Since taking over, it seems like they've definitely lowered the priority of having good defenders.  Now certainly a big part of that is that they are trying to lose (or at least not trying to win) so playing bad defense doesn't have dire consequences.  But I wonder if any part of it is that as a group they simply don't feel that now that we're doing so much shifting, the value of individual player defense is as high as it's been perceived by some other organizations and maybe the league in general.  

[Ravens2006]

Mullins looks like a decent defensive outfielder with good speed and a bad arm. Offensively he's been very mediocre as a part time contributor over 3 seasons before now. His SB percentage isn't too bad but not great either. He's most likely a 4th or 5th outfielder on a decent team, maybe a late inning defensive replacement and off day replacement for a guy who takes off to DH.

All the statistical flavors of the day, with all the different qualifiers are great. His track record and eyes suggest he really is who I said he is.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Since taking over, it seems like they've definitely lowered the priority of having good defenders.  Now certainly a big part of that is that they are trying to lose (or at least not trying to win) so playing bad defense doesn't have dire consequences.  But I wonder if any part of it is that as a group they simply don't feel that now that we're doing so much shifting, the value of individual player defense is as high as it's been perceived by some other organizations and maybe the league in general.  

I think you nailed why they haven't prioritized at the ML level, but I don't think that's the case with what they've drafted, or will be their approach as the mentality towards winning changes. 

[mweb08]

The value of defense is lower than it was when I was growing up in the 80s and early 90s primarily because not nearly as many balls are put in play. So it would make sense to devalue defense unless you buck the trend and seek out pitchers that pitch to contact more, or at the least, allow more in play contact.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Defense is likely less valuable than even just 10 years ago. That doesn't change this:

 

Mountcastle at average LF and 1B/DH is more valuable than Mountcastle as only 1B/DH. Certainly the key word here being average.

[Mackus]

Mountcastle at average LF and 1B/DH is more valuable than Mountcastle as only 1B/DH. Certainly the key word here being average.

 

Independent value, yes.  It may be more beneficial overall to the team to have him be a 1B/DH than an average LF.

 

An example of that would be if some combo of Stewart, Diaz, Hay, Mullins, and Santander become three capable starting outfielders, we keep Mancini, but nobody else develops into a decent hitter for the DH spot. 

 

Mountcastle's WAR goes down, Orioles overall runs go up.

 

WAR is in a vacuum, but the O's don't play in one.  All that said, I still continue to give Mountcastle ample opportunity in LF though not everyday because we still want to see both Hays and Stewart get some time and eventually Diaz.

[Mackus]

The value of defense is lower than in it was when I was growing up in the 80s and early 90s primarily because not nearly as many balls are put in play. So it would make sense to devalue defense unless you buck the trend and seek out pitchers that pitch to contact more, or at the least, allow more in play contact.

 

Very good point that I hadn't considered.

[BaltBird 24]

Of course, the Orioles aren't really one of those teams who has ever had a power strikeout type pitcher aside from Bedard for a year..... so they should definitely focus on defensive minded players.

[BSLRoseKatz]

The value of defense is lower than in it was when I was growing up in the 80s and early 90s primarily because not nearly as many balls are put in play. So it would make sense to devalue defense unless you buck the trend and seek out pitchers that pitch to contact more, or at the least, allow more in play contact.

 

The most putouts by a team's CF by year

 

2019: 468

2010: 463

2000: 479

1990: 490

1985: 511

1980: 523

 

So it's gone down a bit but 1980 was 3.22 putouts by the CF per game and 2019 was 2.88, so I don't think there's a huge gap. I feel like the increase in homers also means there's an increase in guys trying to elevate the ball and coming up short, so there's still plenty for a CF to do. 

[mweb08]

The most putouts by a team's CF by year

2019: 468
2010: 463
2000: 479
1990: 490
1985: 511
1980: 523

So it's gone down a bit but 1980 was 3.22 putouts by the CF per game and 2019 was 2.88, so I don't think there's a huge gap. I feel like the increase in homers also means there's an increase in guys trying to elevate the ball and coming up short, so there's still plenty for a CF to do.

Well it's a game where finding small edges is key, so with that said, I think that's a sizable per game difference that adds up over time to something significant. Even more so when it comes to how much a team should weigh team defense now vs then.

[russsnyder]

The most putouts by a team's CF by year

2019: 468
2010: 463
2000: 479
1990: 490
1985: 511
1980: 523

So it's gone down a bit but 1980 was 3.22 putouts by the CF per game and 2019 was 2.88, so I don't think there's a huge gap. I feel like the increase in homers also means there's an increase in guys trying to elevate the ball and coming up short, so there's still plenty for a CF to do.

Teams value defense.( They always will.)

Despite balls being put in play being down, plays have to be made on the ones that are.

The best evidence of this is the use of the shift.