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BSL: Thoughts On Mullins And Mountcastle


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#1 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 10 April 2021 - 04:58 PM

BSL: Thoughts On Mullins And Mountcastle

https://baltimorespo...nd-mountcastle/


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#2 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 10 April 2021 - 05:06 PM

Spot on!



#3 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 07:36 AM

What Mullins did over 70 ab's in '19 was overblown, and what he is doing right now is a bit too - though it's certainly encouraging and fun to watch. What I really like about Mullins is that after his '19 struggles (which continued in the Minors), he worked to address his weaknesses and earn another opportunity. Last Summer we saw some gains, highlighted by the defense. This year, he's shown a great approach offensively too, and obviously abandoned the switch hitting. That makes him easy to root for.  

I still don't know if I think he's a long-term starter, but when you start with his range in CF, that's a great piece. 
Obviously won't sustain this offense... but if he's a .750 OPS guy with the defense, you've got something. 

 

 

Admittedly, I'm still biased to the idea of ultimately having Hays in CF, and Diaz in LF.  But Mullins is the one taking advantage of the current opportunity, and Hays is the one back on the IL.  Doesn't matter what talent you have, if you can't be depended on to post up.  Hays needs to get back, produce, and stay in the lineup, or you'll reach the point as an organization where he'll run out of opportunities. 

 

 

Re: Mountcastle...  

 

I've been saying it for years, his future imo is bat.  
I never loved the idea of giving him time in the OF, and I don't buy the argument that giving him another glove makes him more versatile and thus more valuable.   It doesn't matter if he can stand in another position, if he's going to be below average there.  

 

The absolute best upside for Mountcastle in LF is becoming a below average but serviceable LF.   If you didn't have other options with better all-around profiles (Hays, Diaz) that you'll also want to be evaluating out there this year; then you could give Mountcastle extended time in LF to see if he could ultimately reach that serviceable bar.   

Some people seem to think it's an L for the Orioles if Mountcastle only plays 1st and DH going forward. I don't. 
I think he's going to produce enough offensively even with the strike zone questions, that he's going to be very productive... and a great piece for years while he costs nothing. 

 

Before Hays immediately went on the IL, Hyde had Hays in LF and Mountcastle at DH.
Stewart comes back last night - and he's below average in LF too - and Hyde immediately puts him in LF, and Mountcastle at DH. 
My take from that, is that Hyde agrees with me. 

Get Hays back, and put him into the lineup. He produces or he doesn't. He stays healthy or he doesn't. 
Put Mountcastle where he belongs. In the lineup everyday at 1st or DH. 

If you trade Mancini, Stewart can also factor at 1st and DH. 
If you don't trade Mancini, Stewart is likely the odd guy out...  or Mullins comes back to Earth, Hays replaces Mullins in CF, and Stewart gets a chance to hold off Diaz in LF. 

 

 

Also... as we've talked before...  Mejdal has told us previously that the available defensive metrics such as UZR and DRS are no longer of use. 


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#4 Mackus

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 08:37 AM

I'm comfortable shifting Mountcastle to DH at this point. I'd like to continue seeing him in LF, but positional scarcity is only a factor when you will have an opening you need to fill. If Santander, Mullins, Hays/Diaz is gonna be the outfield and Mancini at 1B, then it only hurts his value on paper (i.e. WAR) if Mountcastle is DH. Doesn't cost the Orioles any real runs.

I would limit Hays and keep giving Mountcastle more time in LF. I think it's more likely that Mountcastle's glove comes around than Hays' bat. But I know I'm in the minority there and have no issues if they go the other way with the bulk of the time.

#5 Mackus

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 08:45 AM


I still don't know if I think he's a long-term starter, but when you start with his range in CF, that's a great piece.
Obviously won't sustain this offense... but if he's a .750 OPS guy with the defense, you've got something.

Yep, that's the goal.

750 actually is pretty much dead on league average overall the past couple years. CF only are actually a little below that. I think if Cedric can keep the bat at an OBP-heavy 700+ then he's a legit everyday CF. Maybe if he's barely at that level you look to improve the spot but it wouldn't be a major weakness.

I'm with you that I'm not sure if he can do it or not, but I absolutely love the changes he's made and the willingness to do whatever it takes and whatever he can to get there.

#6 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 09:22 AM

I was a proponent of playing Mountcastle a good bit in LF this year based on how he looked last year. Hes had some really ugly moments this year and no the opponent and situations have nothing to do with the angst. There have been some really bad jumps and an inability to track the ball. Thats concerning. That has to improve and improve quickly.

#7 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 09:27 AM

Mullins is fun. Even when the bat inevitably slumps the range and baserunning will be fun to see. Wish the arm was better and wish he had a better feel for stealing bases. Maybe he can improve the stolen bases. Willing to keep him penciled in as the everyday CF if he can do something like .270/.315/.415. Wouldn't surprise me if he can be a high 700s OPS guy. He has sneaky XBH pop. If he could improve the OBP a bit something like .270/.335/435 is a real possibility.
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#8 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 09:33 AM

Mullins is fun. Even when the bat inevitably slumps the range and baserunning will be fun to see. Wish the arm was better and wish he had a better feel for stealing bases. Maybe he can improve the stolen bases. Willing to keep him penciled in as the everyday CF if he can do something like .270/.315/.415. Wouldn't surprise me if he can be a high 700s OPS guy. He has sneaky XBH pop. If he could improve the OBP a bit something like .270/.335/435 is a real possibility.


Feels like 35-40 doubles, and 10 homers is possible for him.



#9 russsnyder

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 10:21 AM

Mullins has seized the job as the regular centerfielder on this club. He should be pencilled in every day unless he slumps miserably. I agree with 35 that he has sneaky extra base pop. I fully expect him to OPS in the.700's if/when he gets 400 to 500 PA's.

Hays should be the fourth outfielder when he comes back. He can play all of the positions. He can spell Mullins in center, play right when Santander DH's and left sometimes when Mountcastle DHs. The guy has a lot of talent, but his inability to stay healthy has in part allowed Mullins to take the starting job in center. Despite his tools and athleticism, he has only shown flashes of his ability.

I think Mountcastle should continue to get the bulk of time in left. Let him try to work out his fielding slump. He's too young to be a full time DH IMO.
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#10 Mackus

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 10:26 AM

Hays filling in for Santander or Mountcastle to slide to DH once a week would be fine with me. Give Mullins a day every couple weeks. Agree that's the role he's earned at this point, everyone else has done more.

#11 IanQuillen

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 11:10 AM

I still think Mullins' ceiling is most likely MLB-average offensive/defensive CF, but that's a big deal by itself, especially considering the parks you play in as an AL East club. The Orioles haven't really had an average defensive CF since Adam Jones' early years (before he started picking up occasional injuries that would result in brief DL stints.) In OPACY, having an average CF means you can cover A LOT of ground and sort of hide less than avg defenders in the corners of a smaller outfield. In Yankee Stadium and Fenway, CF is disproportionately huge.

As for offense, I would love to see analytic data on how effective switch-hitting really when a guy is more comfortable as a left-hander. I suspect more hitters could benefit from sticking to one side of the plate (but wouldn't claim to know for sure.)



#12 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 11:11 AM

Improved SB ability and better walk rate and he's Kenny Lofton lite. Loved Kenny Lofton

#13 Ravens2006

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 04:29 PM

This is his 4th year in the majors. At 26 now, he'll be 27 when October arrives. Enjoy his hot streaks while they last. Most guys that become regular starters for any length of time have shown more consistency by now.

#14 Mackus

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 04:37 PM

Anything remotely approaching Kenny Lofton (who has a legit HOF argument) is way too lofty of a goal. Realize you said "lite", but still.

Passable starter is very near to best case, IMO. But that does feel like a very reasonable possibility.

#15 dude

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 05:14 PM

Anything remotely approaching Kenny Lofton (who has a legit HOF argument) is way too lofty of a goal. Realize you said "lite", but still.

Passable starter is very near to best case, IMO. But that does feel like a very reasonable possibility.

 

I don't think Lofton (even 'lite') is the right comp.

 

I view him more like JBJ where you flip some HRs for SBs.



#16 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 06:55 PM

Anything remotely approaching Kenny Lofton (who has a legit HOF argument) is way too lofty of a goal. Realize you said "lite", but still.

Passable starter is very near to best case, IMO. But that does feel like a very reasonable possibility.

From a defensive and offensive production outside of SBs he can be Lofton lite. Lofton was a 107 career OPS+ guy. His prime was in Cle where he was at 109 OPS+. Lofton put up 48.9 rWAR in 10 years in Cle. 4.9 a season. I think Mullins can be 3-3.5 if his defense is as good as I think it is. I stand by it again assuming he can show some ability to be an efficient SB threat.

#17 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 06:59 PM

From a defensive and offensive production outside of SBs he can be Lofton lite. Lofton was a 107 career OPS+ guy. His prime was in Cle where he was at 109 OPS+. Lofton put up 48.9 rWAR in 10 years in Cle. 4.9 a season. I think Mullins can be 3-3.5 if his defense is as good as I think it is. I stand by it again assuming he can show some ability to be an efficient SB threat.

Baseball Savant had his sprint speed 92nd percentile in 2020 and 87th percentile for this year just in case you needed data to back up his speed, but SBs feel like they're a product of getting a jump more than just strictly being fast 


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#18 Mackus

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Posted 11 April 2021 - 07:35 PM

Mullins turning into a 3-3.5 WAR guy is a 100th percentile result, IMO. Would be fantastic, and I hope it happens, but I have lower expectations.

#19 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 12 April 2021 - 05:38 AM

If we are going strictly by WAR then he'll have to get a significant amount through dWAR. We'll see how he grades as a defender. Thats the part Im most unsure about.

#20 Mackus

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Posted 12 April 2021 - 07:41 AM

To my eye he looks plus but not plus-plus defensively.  I don't know exactly how that translates to WAR and no idea how accurate my scouting is.

 

And about now is when Chris will want to chime in that the Orioles at least don't think the publicly available defensive metrics are worth much :).  So we may not even be talking in units that really have any truth behind them even if the general idea is something we're familiar with.






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