37 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

ESPN: Tag or goodbye? Ravens face potential turnover at pass-rusher

[Biggsy]

I wouldn't tag either Judon or Ngakoue. I think Judon's tag number would be astronomical if I'm remembering the tag rules properly. If you tag a guy two years in a row, the salary is a lot higher. I didn't think he was worth the tag salary last year.

Ngakoue did himself no favors offering almost no impact here after his trade. Hard to justify a large cap number on him either.

I'd possibly look into Von Miller pending his off-field situation. Outside of him, maybe Clowney if his salary demands are low enough. Maybe even make a phone call to Chicago about a Mack for Brown Jr trade.

[Mike in STL]

I wouldn't tag either Judon or Ngakoue. I think Judon's tag number would be astronomical if I'm remembering the tag rules properly. If you tag a guy two years in a row, the salary is a lot higher. I didn't think he was worth the tag salary last year.

Ngakoue did himself no favors offering almost no impact here after his trade. Hard to justify a large cap number on him either.

I'd possibly look into Von Miller pending his off-field situation. Outside of him, maybe Clowney if his salary demands are low enough. Maybe even make a phone call to Chicago about a Mack for Brown Jr trade.

I wouldn't tag Judon or Ngakoue either. 

 

Clowney would have to come way down on salary demands for me. Like near league minimum with incentives for games played and sack totals. I definitely didn't want him at his cost last year. He and I racked up the same amount of sacks in 2020, only difference is he got paid almost a million dollars per tackle (14 tackles, 1/$13M contract). 8 games and done for the year. Par for the course for him. 

[PrimeTime]

The only way you tag either guy is if you're close on an extension and just need more time.

Given the cap situation though, I don't know if either guy fits without really kicking the can down the salary cap road.

[Mike B]

I wouldn't tag Judon or Ngakoue either. 

 

Clowney would have to come way down on salary demands for me. Like near league minimum with incentives for games played and sack totals. I definitely didn't want him at his cost last year. He and I racked up the same amount of sacks in 2020, only difference is he got paid almost a million dollars per tackle (14 tackles, 1/$13M contract). 8 games and done for the year. Par for the course for him. 

I think Clowney has been one of the most over rated players in the last 5 years.  The Ravens need a sack guy, that is not Clowney

[Mike B]

The only way you tag either guy is if you're close on an extension and just need more time.

Given the cap situation though, I don't know if either guy fits without really kicking the can down the salary cap road.

Given the enviroment the Ravens are not as cap strapped as we think.  I have been beating the drum for patience.  I think if we dig in and refrain from spending on a big name guy at a big price tag, we are going to get some cap friendly deals with some good players.  

 

Given that, I think Judon and Yannick are gone.  

[Mike in STL]

I think Clowney has been one of the most over rated players in the last 5 years. The Ravens need a sack guy, that is not Clowney

Agreed. He’s not even a number one overall pick without that uncontested tackle for loss in a bowl game that went viral.

[Mike B]

Agreed. He’s not even a number one overall pick without that uncontested tackle for loss in a bowl game that went viral.

It might not be fair, but to me, his career, has been enhanced because of some highlight plays.

[St.Steveg]

Given the enviroment the Ravens are not as cap strapped as we think.  I have been beating the drum for patience.  I think if we dig in and refrain from spending on a big name guy at a big price tag, we are going to get some cap friendly deals with some good players.  

 

Given that, I think Judon and Yannick are gone.  

Judon should be seen only in the review mirror as we move on. But I would think the Ravens' situation for Yannick would be such a good one (and the FA market so lousy) that he would be open to a favorable signing, maybe a one year prove-it deal, in line with his modest 2020 production. For whatever reason, I think he's got more in him than we've seen, and maybe a full season would help him show it.

[Mike in STL]

It might not be fair, but to me, his career, has been enhanced because of some highlight plays.

There’s that. He’s also a good edge setter in the run game. But I’m not paying an edge setter north of $10M unless they are a good chance to get you double digit sacks too.

The team that signs him will be lucky to get 8 games and 3 sacks out of him. Maybe if last year was any indication, how long it took a team to sign him, been though three teams in three years, maybe he doesn’t sign anywhere.

[Mike B]

Judon should be seen only in the review mirror as we move on. But I would think the Ravens' situation for Yannick would be such a good one (and the FA market so lousy) that he would be open to a favorable signing, maybe a one year prove-it deal, in line with his modest 2020 production. For whatever reason, I think he's got more in him than we've seen, and maybe a full season would help him show it.

I was disappointed in Yannick, although maybe he is better with a training camp.  The deal would have to be right.

[Biggsy]

I think Clowney has been one of the most over rated players in the last 5 years. The Ravens need a sack guy, that is not Clowney

I think Clowney is one of the most underrated pressure guys in the last 5 years. People that only look at sacks may think he's overrated. People who know football, know pass rushing is more than sacks.

We went through this last year. If you don't want Clowney because of his injury history, you're justified. If you don't because you only look at sack numbers and believe he actually isn't a really good pass rusher, you're wrong. In averages alone, Clowney is around 4 total pressures (sacks, QB hits, hurries) a game. Judon is around 2.5. (quick math that I'm sure is wrong without diving into the numbers too deep) We don't even need to try and compare the two against the run. It's not even close to a contest. Judon flat out isn't good there. Clowney is great there.

If it's down to those 2 (Judon and Clowney). And I have to pick one to pay 15 million annually, give me the better player. That's how you win games, you put superior players on the field. Its not an opinion when it comes to actual talent and production. Anyone who thinks Judon is better than Clowney is flat out wrong. Every single number proves that.

If you want to say Clowney is overrated due to the hype he came out with, that's fair. Hes not s generational talent like most claimed. If you want to say it because of his injury history, also fair. He's still extremely good when he's on the field. He's a far superior player to Judon. Now, if you can get Judon at 10 or 11 million annually, and Clowney wants 13 or more, yeah, go after Judon, hands down. If they're both asking for more, I say look elsewhere, because neither are worth that much for different reasons.

[Steve55]

It looks like neither player will be tagged. There will only be a few big FA contracts given out this year due to the cap dropping and less teams with money to spend. If both Judon or Yannick are just looking for big money they are not going to find it. Most of the FA are going to settle on 1 yr deals which will get them back on the market. But then 2022 might not see a large cap increase either unless people can get back into stadiums in big numbers. There also might not be the huge TV deals coming for the NFL.

[Mackus]

One-year make good offers might not be very feasible for the Ravens, unfortunately.  While it's certainly less of a long-term commitment to a player, the 1-year term means it's all against the cap with no way to push any money out.  The 1-year deal can often be more of a cap burden in that first (only) year than the first year of a much larger, longer-term deal.

 

The one workaround would be if the "one year" deal is really a 2- or even 3-year contract that automatically voids after the first season.  Then it can be a reduced cap hit in 2021 and then the balance comes due in 2022.  

[Mike in STL]

I think Clowney is one of the most underrated pressure guys in the last 5 years. People that only look at sacks may think he's overrated. People who know football, know pass rushing is more than sacks.

We went through this last year. If you don't want Clowney because of his injury history, you're justified. If you don't because you only look at sack numbers and believe he actually isn't a really good pass rusher, you're wrong. In averages alone, Clowney is around 4 total pressures (sacks, QB hits, hurries) a game. Judon is around 2.5. (quick math that I'm sure is wrong without diving into the numbers too deep) We don't even need to try and compare the two against the run. It's not even close to a contest. Judon flat out isn't good there. Clowney is great there.

If it's down to those 2 (Judon and Clowney). And I have to pick one to pay 15 million annually, give me the better player. That's how you win games, you put superior players on the field. Its not an opinion when it comes to actual talent and production. Anyone who thinks Judon is better than Clowney is flat out wrong. Every single number proves that.

If you want to say Clowney is overrated due to the hype he came out with, that's fair. Hes not s generational talent like most claimed. If you want to say it because of his injury history, also fair. He's still extremely good when he's on the field. He's a far superior player to Judon. Now, if you can get Judon at 10 or 11 million annually, and Clowney wants 13 or more, yeah, go after Judon, hands down. If they're both asking for more, I say look elsewhere, because neither are worth that much for different reasons.

Last year Clowney generated 28 pressures on 256 pass rush assignments. 10.9% of his rushes generate pressure. 6.9% Run stop%

Judon generated 39 pressures on 272 pass rush assignments. 14.3% generated pressure. 6.8% Run stop%

 

Crazy to me that Judon in 14 games had barely as many pass rush assignments as Clowney in 8 games. I guess some variables in play.  Judon played 365 passing snaps, rushed 272 times. I guess was asked to play in coverage more. Clowney played 266 passing snaps, and rushed 256 times. Guess thats his primary job. One coverage assignment per game give or take. Judon on six or seven?

 

2019

Clowney - 13 games. 409 passing plays, 392 pass rushes. 48 pressures. 12.2% generated pressure. 9.3% Run stop%

Judon - 16 games. 504 passing plays, 405 pass rushes. 62 pressures. 15.3% generated pressure. 8.5% Run stop%

 

2018

Clowney - 15 games. 577 passing plays. 550 pass rushes. 59 pressures. 10.7% generated pressure. 9.9% Run stop%

Judon -  16 games. 427 passing plays, 319 pass rushes. 41 pressures. 12.9% generated pressure. 6.1% Run stop%

 

I'll conceed Clowney is a better edge setter (debatable in 2020). But that's not what you pay edge rushers to do. Ravens drafted Suggs for his ability to get to the quarterback. That he became a great run stopper too was a bonus. Does Judon being asked to play more coverage make up for his lesser run stop ability? I don't know. 

 

Neither is worth what they are seeking. Gun to my head, I'd take Judon over Clowney. 

[Mackus]

I'd absolutely take Judon over Clowney if that's the debate.  If you could magically guarantee health and availability it becomes a fair question, but nobody can do that so it's Judon in a landslide, IMO, even if it costs a little more.  Either versus other stuff is the more interesting question to me.

[Biggsy]

I'd absolutely take Judon over Clowney if that's the debate. If you could magically guarantee health and availability it becomes a fair question, but nobody can do that so it's Judon in a landslide, IMO, even if it costs a little more. Either versus other stuff is the more interesting question to me.

I personally don't want either at this point. But guaranteeing health, it's not even a question. Clowney is by far the better overall player, it's not even close. I certainly wouldn't pay more for a lesser player, that's just terrible business sense. That's what teams like the Jets and Browns do.

[Biggsy]

Last year Clowney generated 28 pressures on 256 pass rush assignments. 10.9% of his rushes generate pressure. 6.9% Run stop%
Judon generated 39 pressures on 272 pass rush assignments. 14.3% generated pressure. 6.8% Run stop%

Crazy to me that Judon in 14 games had barely as many pass rush assignments as Clowney in 8 games. I guess some variables in play. Judon played 365 passing snaps, rushed 272 times. I guess was asked to play in coverage more. Clowney played 266 passing snaps, and rushed 256 times. Guess thats his primary job. One coverage assignment per game give or take. Judon on six or seven?

2019
Clowney - 13 games. 409 passing plays, 392 pass rushes. 48 pressures. 12.2% generated pressure. 9.3% Run stop%
Judon - 16 games. 504 passing plays, 405 pass rushes. 62 pressures. 15.3% generated pressure. 8.5% Run stop%

2018
Clowney - 15 games. 577 passing plays. 550 pass rushes. 59 pressures. 10.7% generated pressure. 9.9% Run stop%
Judon - 16 games. 427 passing plays, 319 pass rushes. 41 pressures. 12.9% generated pressure. 6.1% Run stop%

I'll conceed Clowney is a better edge setter (debatable in 2020). But that's not what you pay edge rushers to do. Ravens drafted Suggs for his ability to get to the quarterback. That he became a great run stopper too was a bonus. Does Judon being asked to play more coverage make up for his lesser run stop ability? I don't know.

Neither is worth what they are seeking. Gun to my head, I'd take Judon over Clowney.

Not sure where you got your numbers, but PFF has different numbers than you're offering.

They have 2019 Clowney at 482 pass rush snaps with 58 pressures. And Judon at 450 with 63.

2018, Clowney at 613 with 63. And Judon at 366 with 47.

I think that tell a similar story. Judon is a slightly better pass rusher. Clowney is a far superior edge setter. Judon's highest PFF rating was a 69 in 2019. Clowney hasn't had one season under 74 outside of his rookie season.

[Mike in STL]

Not sure where you got your numbers, but PFF has different numbers than you're offering.

They have 2019 Clowney at 482 pass rush snaps with 58 pressures. And Judon at 450 with 63.

2018, Clowney at 613 with 63. And Judon at 366 with 47.

I think that tell a similar story. Judon is a slightly better pass rusher. Clowney is a far superior edge setter. Judon's highest PFF rating was a 69 in 2019. Clowney hasn't had one season under 74 outside of his rookie season.

I used PFF as well. Under pass rush productivity. I’ll have to double check my work.

Edit: I didn’t include playoff games if that makes a difference.

[Mike B]

Last year Clowney generated 28 pressures on 256 pass rush assignments. 10.9% of his rushes generate pressure. 6.9% Run stop%

Judon generated 39 pressures on 272 pass rush assignments. 14.3% generated pressure. 6.8% Run stop%

 

Crazy to me that Judon in 14 games had barely as many pass rush assignments as Clowney in 8 games. I guess some variables in play.  Judon played 365 passing snaps, rushed 272 times. I guess was asked to play in coverage more. Clowney played 266 passing snaps, and rushed 256 times. Guess thats his primary job. One coverage assignment per game give or take. Judon on six or seven?

 

2019

Clowney - 13 games. 409 passing plays, 392 pass rushes. 48 pressures. 12.2% generated pressure. 9.3% Run stop%

Judon - 16 games. 504 passing plays, 405 pass rushes. 62 pressures. 15.3% generated pressure. 8.5% Run stop%

 

2018

Clowney - 15 games. 577 passing plays. 550 pass rushes. 59 pressures. 10.7% generated pressure. 9.9% Run stop%

Judon -  16 games. 427 passing plays, 319 pass rushes. 41 pressures. 12.9% generated pressure. 6.1% Run stop%

 

I'll conceed Clowney is a better edge setter (debatable in 2020). But that's not what you pay edge rushers to do. Ravens drafted Suggs for his ability to get to the quarterback. That he became a great run stopper too was a bonus. Does Judon being asked to play more coverage make up for his lesser run stop ability? I don't know. 

 

Neither is worth what they are seeking. Gun to my head, I'd take Judon over Clowney. 

Your last statement is pretty much how I feel.  I think Judon is slightly better than Clowney.  Bottom line, I do not want to pay up for either and I think both are going to find it hard to get the $$$ they want.