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Tatis / Orioles Angle


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#21 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 11:42 AM


If service time was only a consideration for elite prospects, it would be easier to swallow. But imo, it's not.

I have no idea what Diaz is going be or not. I think there is plenty to like.
No real issue with him going and having to earn his way up. I just think earning his way up, isn't what is going to keep him down to start the year.

I really dont think service time manipulation has much if anything to do with Diaz this year. Even if he had a good spring the combination of him needing to prove more in the minors and the Os having the corner OF spots locked down would have him in Norfolk. We've gone back and forth on this before but Mountcastle deserves a real chance in the OF. Imo he was solid out there last year and he's more valuable if he's a LF vs 1b.



#22 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 11:57 AM

I really dont think service time manipulation has much if anything to do with Diaz this year. Even if he had a good spring the combination of him needing to prove more in the minors and the Os having the corner OF spots locked down would have him in Norfolk. We've gone back and forth on this before but Mountcastle deserves a real chance in the OF. Imo he was solid out there last year and he's more valuable if he's a LF vs 1b.


I'm not saying Diaz would be a lock to come North without service time questions... I'm saying it makes it that much easier to send him down, and not really let him openly compete for a spot this Spring. 

 

We will continue to disagree about Mountcastle. I think he was generally fine in LF.  He wasn't killing the O's there, but I think he can be improved on.  And I'm not worried about him being more valuable in LF vs. 1st / DH.   He's going to produce enough offensively for me to be 100% comfortable with him at 1st or DH, especially when he is cost controlled for years.



#23 Mackus

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 12:16 PM

I think you've got it backwards, Chris. Diaz not having pounded down the door makes it easy and justifiable for them to keep him down even if they also want to do it for service time reasons.

He hasn't done so much in the minors that there will be a ground swell from fans to call him up, like there was for Mountcastle last year.

#24 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 12:22 PM

I think you've got it backwards, Chris. Diaz not having pounded down the door makes it easy and justifiable for them to keep him down even if they also want to do it for service time reasons.

He hasn't done so much in the minors that there will be a ground swell from fans to call him up, like there was for Mountcastle last year.


It's not backward, because it's not one vs. the other. 

There are multiple valid arguments for him going to AAA. 

But if the Orioles felt what he showed last Summer coupled with what anything he showed this Spring was worthy of bringing him up... they'd still be faced with having to make a choice which goes against their longer term economic interests vs simply making a baseball decision.



#25 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 12:28 PM

I am with Twenty Thrity Five

 

I think Mountcastle is much more valuable to the O's (or pretty much any team) if he can be a serviceable LF. 1B/DH guys are easy to find. 



#26 dude

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 01:07 PM

1) I've talked about Machado extensions (amongst the group) going back 8 years here.  Search would only take me back to 2017 (maybe I did something wrong, but there's a Machado Extension thread from 2014 (I think) where I talk about this exact thing.  I've referenced many more times over the years.  Very few people, if any, have endorsed the notion that your approach to a player can or should have any impact no the long-term considerations.

 

The Orioles treated Manny better (well better) than the Padres treated Tatis in terms of service+.  We don't have to re-hash that conversation, there's plenty of text on it, still stand by my positions which is in line with what just happened in the SD/Tatis contract.  I put the same type of thing in the Rutschman thread recently.  You can give it away if you like, I think players should respect how they are treated because there's a tangible cost value to decisions (discuss it all of the time).

 

2) We should confuse the 'service time manipulation' of Boras clients with other players/agents.  You aren't getting anything back from a Boras client unless you do something ridiculous.  Ignore the banter of a Boras client.

 

3) People are getting the Longoria situation generally wrong.  Talked about it here and back on the Sun Boards.

 

4) If you are competitive, there's less excitement about 'prospect promotion' because you are competing. You Win Now, Win Later plan accounts for all of that stuff, if you're smart.

 

5) I don't think Diaz is anything (league average would be a good result for him) but what's true about his situation and every situation is that Player Opportunity is zero balance.  For one guy to play, it comes at the expense of someone else. Everyone can't play.  We aren't going to learn anything about a guy over a partial season or a whole season or even 2 seasons that is typically going to change an approach.  Again, it's 1SP.

 

6) There's a reason to manipulate time beyond Service.  People ignore or mock that, I think the Orioles are doing it (intentionally).  You really don't need to manage service of guys you aren't keeping for 6 years.



#27 dude

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 01:10 PM

7) I actually have an answer and I haven't published it yet.  If you want to solve problems, you have to incentivize both sides.  That's the challenge of current approach to structures, you create a line and then everyone tries to exploit that line.  That's what you have to solve.  Mackus has read an early version of it (couple years ago), mdrunning I think left.



#28 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 01:12 PM

I am with Twenty Thrity Five

I think Mountcastle is much more valuable to the O's (or pretty much any team) if he can be a serviceable LF. 1B/DH guys are easy to find.

And your note about pretty much any team was what I was going to say. You want him as valuable as possible period. If we get to the point where say Hays, Santander, and Diaz are 3 productive hitters and the better defenders then absolutely you move Mountcastle to 1b/DH. We are far from that. Of Hays, Diaz,Mountcastle and Santander Mountcastle's bat is the one Im most confident is going to play longterm in the bigs. Im not going to potentially stunt his development as a LF just to get another guy a look. Diaz will get his shot somewhere very soon in the Os outfield. Whether through injury or performance.

#29 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 01:17 PM


You manipulate service time to try to keep guys you feel like are elite prospects. You don't do that with guys that are middle of the pack or so-so. If Diaz is going to get a spot he's going to have to earn it, and he's got to outplay others to get it. I'm not moving a SINGLE person out of his way unless he just tears the cover off the ball and forces his way on the team.

The few things of him I saw after we got him weren't in the slightest impressive, and I suspect there's a reason LA was happy to send him in this deal.

The emotional component of wanting him to be a stud because he's the main piece we got back for Manny, which makes that look even worse if he doesn't pan out is real. Because of last year you have to pause a little bit before you write him off, but I'm completely comfortable with saying this year is make or break for him and you don't HAND him anything. He either works for it, or he doesn't, but I have a feeling that desire and work ethic is what it's going to come down to.

Obviously, it's subjective, and sometimes you miss when you throw out a bold statement like this, but it's what I see and how I feel. No right or wrong until they either do or don't.

I dont think it has to necessarily be an elite prospect for teams to play the service time game but I agree that I dont think the Os are worried or thinking about the service time game with Diaz in particular.

#30 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 01:22 PM

And your note about pretty much any team was what I was going to say. You want him as valuable as possible period. If we get to the point where say Hays, Santander, and Diaz are 3 productive hitters and the better defenders then absolutely you move Mountcastle to 1b/DH. We are far from that. Of Hays, Diaz,Mountcastle and Santander Mountcastle's bat is the one Im most confident is going to play longterm in the bigs. Im not going to potentially stunt his development as a LF just to get another guy a look. Diaz will get his shot somewhere very soon in the Os outfield. Whether through injury or performance.


I can agree with parts of this. 

- Agree you want Mountcastle as valuable as possible. 

 

- Agree that when we get to the point that Hays / Santander / Diaz are productive and the better defenders, Mountcastle moves. 

 

- Agree that Diaz in particular has more to prove. 

 

- Agree that out of Mountcastle, Hays, Santander, and Diaz I feel best about Mountcastle's bat.



#31 JeremyStrain

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 01:28 PM

I dont think it has to necessarily be an elite prospect for teams to play the service time game but I agree that I dont think the Os are worried or thinking about the service time game with Diaz in particular.


I paused at that word choice for a sec, you’re probably right but then I was too lazy to come up for a scale between elite and meh so I just left it.
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#32 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 02:15 PM

The one benefit of a rebilding team is the Os wont be too concerned about playing Santander or Diaz in CF if Hays is hurt or underperforming. Even if its pretty clear neither guy is a long term CF. Just as a way to get them in the lineup every day. Over say playing Mullins out there everyday where you know hes good defensively but only profiles as a 4th outfielder longterm.

#33 Mackus

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 03:49 PM

I'd dislike it, but yes, you could go with a Mountcastle, Santander, and Diaz outfield.  It'd be pretty brutal defensively.  I'd try to avoid that on days that either Kremer or Akin are pitching in hopes of giving them the best opportunity to produce good numbers and start gaining confidence.



#34 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 03:59 PM


I'd dislike it, but yes, you could go with a Mountcastle, Santander, and Diaz outfield. It'd be pretty brutal defensively. I'd try to avoid that on days that either Kremer or Akin are pitching in hopes of giving them the best opportunity to produce good numbers and start gaining confidence.

Yeah, its just an option and I guess a luxury they have by not worrying about contending. It would likely take both Mancini and Stewart performing well as 1b and DH. Otherwise you could cycle through Mountcastle at 1b/DH LF, Santander at OF/DH and Diaz at OF/DH while playing Mullins or McKenna in CF.

#35 Mackus

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 04:20 PM

Don't forget about Davis! :)



#36 mweb08

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 05:16 PM

I wonder how teams would change development if players reached free agency after their Age 28 season no matter when they were drafted or debuted or how much service time they accrue.

 

Or you could do it 8 years after draft for college guys, 10 for High School guys, and 12 years after signing for international FAs.  

 

This is a good idea, but the age should be younger than 28.

 

I know we're used to the system as is, but players should have the freedom to choose where they want to play and what contract they play under before they hit their prime. Besides just that a person shouldn't be under such restriction for 8-12 years imo, teams have wised up some to the point where guys don't generally get paid as well into their mid to late 30's. 






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