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BSL: Scouting Overview


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#1 CaleCox

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 01:35 PM

BSL: Scouting Overview

https://baltimorespo...uting-overview/


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#2 dude

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 03:47 PM

I was eventually given the opportunity to oversee amateur signings in Latin America.

 

Given what we're routinely told, you could understand how this would make us laugh.  This could have it's own life like the Mark Reynolds sunflower seeds picture. :)  Maybe a thought for a future article "2012-2018 Orioles IFA, Fact and Fiction".

 

Good first piece.

 

I don't know what your future goals are (if they're still in Baseball) which might limit some of the things you can or at least are willing to say, but you could probably include some specifics about players even more specifically (NDAs?) that relate to the process and where you've been in these type articles.

 

Couple questions on the article and maybe a few more later better done through PM.

 

1) Melewski started a series (I don't think he's done anything else after the first piece that I've seen) about some of the advanced tools used for generating spin rate and other physical data.  How would you translate language that scouts use with their eyes/reactions/results to the more scientific data accumulation.

 

2) Related to the above, did you see the proliferation of technical accumulation (ie Statcast generating data) in Latin America in your time (Orioles?, others?) or was it largely eyes - stopwatch - radar gun and intuition/feel.

 

3) Your first chart is interesting...would you consider it common across the industry or do teams have their own internal versions of it.

 

4) You mentioned the current and future grading, but the real question is how do you get to, in the assessment, your future grades?



#3 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 03:49 PM

3) Your first chart is interesting...would you consider it common across the industry or do teams have their own internal versions of it.


The image used is just a standard 20-80 chart I added. 



#4 dude

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 04:24 PM

The image used is just a standard 20-80 chart I added. 

 

OK (I guess I never really looked for it)...I guess my question is the same (because I generically like the chart) in that, is that the same chart they used, or the Industry uses, or is there internal variants of it.  



#5 CaleCox

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 06:09 PM

Given what we're routinely told, you could understand how this would make us laugh.  This could have it's own life like the Mark Reynolds sunflower seeds picture. :)  Maybe a thought for a future article "2012-2018 Orioles IFA, Fact and Fiction".

 

Good first piece.

 

I don't know what your future goals are (if they're still in Baseball) which might limit some of the things you can or at least are willing to say, but you could probably include some specifics about players even more specifically (NDAs?) that relate to the process and where you've been in these type articles.

 

Couple questions on the article and maybe a few more later better done through PM.

 

1) Melewski started a series (I don't think he's done anything else after the first piece that I've seen) about some of the advanced tools used for generating spin rate and other physical data.  How would you translate language that scouts use with their eyes/reactions/results to the more scientific data accumulation.

 

2) Related to the above, did you see the proliferation of technical accumulation (ie Statcast generating data) in Latin America in your time (Orioles?, others?) or was it largely eyes - stopwatch - radar gun and intuition/feel.

 

3) Your first chart is interesting...would you consider it common across the industry or do teams have their own internal versions of it.

 

4) You mentioned the current and future grading, but the real question is how do you get to, in the assessment, your future grades?

 

I do understand why that would be funny, trust me. All I can say is that if it were up to me, we would've been much more active in International signing.

 

To answer your questions:

 

1. I didn't see Steve's piece, but if I understand your question a couple of today's advanced metrics that would correlate to scouting terminology are:

 

Power = Launch angle/Exit velo

Hit = Exit velo/quality of contact

Pitch Movement/Break/Life = Spin Rate

Deception = Perceived velo

 

The correlations aren't perfect, but that's my attempt off the cuff. Maybe a good idea for a future piece.

 

2. Scouting in Latin America is still done largely with the eyes/stopwatch, especially in countries outside of the DR. However, during my time there, the majority of teams had installed TrackMan in their Dominican academies and had begun using advanced metrics on tryouts held there. I would imagine even more Clubs, if not most, have it now. How much the advanced metrics play into decision making varies, but when I was working, scouting evaluations were still weighted heavily in the process.

 

3. The chart is generic, but most teams use something similar but tweak it here and there to their own preferences.

 

4. This is a good question that would take a while to answer, but I'll give it a shot in a few sentences. For young International players, you're often making big guesses since the players are so far from being ML ready. Certain traits - like frame, coordination, athleticism - tend to be predictive of future ability. You also take into account current Major Leaguers and what they looked like at a similar young age. You're relying on a mental library of players you've seen develop and what they looked like along the way. 

 

Thanks for the solid questions!


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#6 dude

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 06:44 PM

1. I didn't see Steve's piece, but if I understand your question a couple of today's advanced metrics that would correlate to scouting terminology are:

 

Power = Launch angle/Exit velo

Hit = Exit velo/quality of contact

Pitch Movement/Break/Life = Spin Rate

Deception = Perceived velo

 

The correlations aren't perfect, but that's my attempt off the cuff. Maybe a good idea for a future piece.

 

Right, so this is heading down the path.  I think of additional terms like "throws a heavy sinker" or "ball rides through the zone".  I think "deception" is a good one and how it translates to something like [perceived velo.] or "Late life"....maybe true spin, not just rpm?  Here's a good word you hear sometimes..."conviction", like he threw that pitch with .... but what is the data transition to something like that?

 

My guess is we could go through many older scouting reports and find 'scout language' that we can now better understand and match up with physical (Trackman/other) data.  

 

In some ways, when it comes to the scouting, we've moved from subjective assessment to objective data, but I'd guess there's a historical correlation between the 2 (which is something I was suggesting maybe Melewski explore in his effort).  Obviously it's a little easier to fool someone in your subjective assessments with your engaging demeanor whereas the data today is just the data.

 

You mentioned the 3 things in the makeup arena which I agree with...."self-confidence, emotional control and mental toughness"...but where we have some language that may get to the physics pieces...it's areas like this that I think can carry some water that we may not understand how to translate into data today. Like maybe 'conviction' is some perceivable component of those 3 outside of physics data.

 

The Orioles (maybe all teams) are working on shape of pitches or bats paths and trying to relate the best players with certain shapes (pitching) or paths (hitting) but my guess is you can get to the same physics without necessarily producing the same results....which means there's some stuff in there beyond Trackman.  



#7 CaleCox

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Posted 18 February 2021 - 11:53 AM

Right, so this is heading down the path.  I think of additional terms like "throws a heavy sinker" or "ball rides through the zone".  I think "deception" is a good one and how it translates to something like [perceived velo.] or "Late life"....maybe true spin, not just rpm?  Here's a good word you hear sometimes..."conviction", like he threw that pitch with .... but what is the data transition to something like that?

 

The term "conviction" was used more frequently when referring to the scout's conviction in his evaluation. For example, if you're submitting a report on a AAA player that you truly think is ready to break out, (Present 30/Future 50 as an example) your conviction would be high. If you're trying to sign a $20K kid that is a long shot to make the Majors unless everything goes perfectly in his development, your conviction could be low or average. Of course, you could think a prospect is a surefire Major Leaguer and submit a report with high conviction. 

 

I always thought it was kind of an unnecessary box to fill in a scouting report because a good scout should most always have high conviction in his opinions, but you check all of the boxes when it's asked of you. 



#8 Mackus

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Posted 18 February 2021 - 12:18 PM

So "conviction" is statistical confidence.  



#9 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 February 2021 - 12:51 PM

Tells me how important player development is within an organization. So many of these guys are coming in very raw at least from a hitting perspective . From a makeup POV I think Id try to figure out which of these guys have that intense drive and work ethic. You're giving them money and an opportunity to play pro ball. The ones that crave information, can process and apply what they're taught and are determined to succeed are good targets. Im sure its not easy to see those things in 16 and 17 yr old kids.
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#10 dude

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Posted 18 February 2021 - 01:15 PM

The term "conviction" was used more frequently when referring to the scout's conviction in his evaluation. For example, if you're submitting a report on a AAA player that you truly think is ready to break out, (Present 30/Future 50 as an example) your conviction would be high. If you're trying to sign a $20K kid that is a long shot to make the Majors unless everything goes perfectly in his development, your conviction could be low or average. Of course, you could think a prospect is a surefire Major Leaguer and submit a report with high conviction. 

 

I always thought it was kind of an unnecessary box to fill in a scouting report because a good scout should most always have high conviction in his opinions, but you check all of the boxes when it's asked of you. 

 

Thanks.  I guess I hear the word more from pundits and analysts (like, in game), so it's informative that it's not a term that is in the scouting evaluation, rather more about the scouting evaluation. 

 

I don't want to just create language here...I guess what I was thinking is if we culled through 1000 scouting reports, we'd see a fair amount of descriptive language and where we've broken the code between what the scout sees (historically) through his eyes and what Trackman tells us (today).  For the past, we'd have the language and the results (performance), today we have the language (maybe) and the data, but we're trying to get to performance prediction.

 

Thank again for your responses.


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#11 Mike B

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 11:03 AM

Great job on the first post Cale.

 

I have seen and heard the 20-80 scale used and discussed many times, but never really had seen it defined by projected stats level.  Thanks for defining it.

 

The one question, I have related to the International market is what is a reasonable time for a team like the Orioles, who ignored International avenues so long, to become a major force in signing top quality players?    It seems like they made great progress this year, and hopefully they are almost to a place where they can sign "the prospect".


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#12 CaleCox

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Posted 20 February 2021 - 12:56 PM

The one question, I have related to the International market is what is a reasonable time for a team like the Orioles, who ignored International avenues so long, to become a major force in signing top quality players?    It seems like they made great progress this year, and hopefully they are almost to a place where they can sign "the prospect".

 

Good question, but a difficult one to answer. I can't think of another situation where a Club went from being so inactive to relatively active in recent memory. Throw in the fact that the International Signing landscape is so unique at the moment given the pandemic and the shifted signing window/modified eligibility rules and it makes it even more difficult to project. The best estimate I can make given all of the moving parts is (very) roughly 3 years.

 

I will say though, that the most important thing in the market is money, and spending your full bonus pool every year will help close the gap. It's clearly a good sign that the O's are now spending their full bonus pool. I can realistically see them inking a top international talent within the next couple of signing periods if they keep spending their full allotment. I'll be even more optimistic about that if they make a move to increase their bonus pool when they're allowed to do so again.


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