14 replies to this topic

[MattKory]

BSL: Defining Expectations For The Orioles’ 2021 Season

https://baltimorespo...es-2021-season/

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The Orioles are in the business of making win-later moves.

 

So far this seems to be correct. But the real truth will be in another year (or two) when they have the talent and the money to go buy the rest of the pieces. Will they actually do so? Time will tell.

[Mackus]

The Orioles are in the business of making win-later moves.

So far this seems to be correct. But the real truth will be in another year (or two) when they have the talent and the money to go buy the rest of the pieces. Will they actually do so? Time will tell.

"Will they spend" I'm not so worried about. They will.

"Will they allow Elias to spend as he sees fit" is what I'm worried about.

In the past money has been there, but it had to meet several random criteria to be spent. The end payroll was fine, but the ability for the GM to use payroll allocation to go fill needs was lacking. Each expense needed ownership approval. That's my concern. And little reason to think the sons are different, they've been a part of things for a long time, IMO, so were likely a significant part of the past roadblocks.

[BSLChrisStoner]

"Will they spend" I'm not so worried about. They will.

"Will they allow Elias to spend as he sees fit" is what I'm worried about.

In the past money has been there, but it had to meet several random criteria to be spent. The end payroll was fine, but the ability for the GM to use payroll allocation to go fill needs was lacking. Each expense needed ownership approval. That's my concern. And little reason to think the sons are different, they've been a part of things for a long time, IMO, so were likely a significant part of the past roadblocks.

I think Elias having the job is a great example of the sons operating differently than their Father. 

Dude thinks Elias having the job is an example of the sons operating exactly like their Father. 

 

We'll see I guess. 

[Mackus]

I think what I disagree with is the idea that it was 100% Peter up until some recent date and since then it's 100% sons (that may be oversimplifying people's opinions, but I don't think by a lot).

 

I do think it's 0% Peter now, but I think there was a lot of John & Lou influence over the past decade and not just the past couple years.  The bad things about Orioles ownership need to be at least strongly suspected of also applying to them.  There have been some changes recently, so that's encouraging, but not enough for me to think that we're now dealing with a horse of a different color.  The recent price slashing and being unwilling to use payroll to improve the organization (going back to 2018 trades) are particularly frustrating for me.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think what I disagree with is the idea that it was 100% Peter up until some recent date and since then it's 100% sons (that may be oversimplifying people's opinions, but I don't think by a lot).

I do think it's 0% Peter now, but I think there was a lot of John & Lou influence over the past decade and not just the past couple years. The bad things about Orioles ownership need to be at least strongly suspected of also applying to them. There have been some changes recently, so that's encouraging, but not enough for me to think that we're now dealing with a horse of a different color. The recent price slashing and being unwilling to use payroll to improve the organization (going back to 2018 trades) are particularly frustrating for me.

Fair and valid post.

[dude]

I think Elias having the job is a great example of the sons operating differently than their Father. 

Dude thinks Elias having the job is an example of the sons operating exactly like their Father. 

 

We'll see I guess. 

 

I do find it interesting that you chose to drag me into this thread with off-topic comments.  

 

I'm comfortable detailing my position at whatever level anyone wants to discuss on an Orioles message board.  The separation between your position and my position is that we are looking at the situation through different eyes.  You are trying to evaluate every move through the lens of winning.  If you go back over 20 years and did a pair-wise comparison of Angelos goals, winning would never have been the top goal.

 

It's possible I'm wrong, but for everything we know, I think I'd have a correlation pretty close to 1.0.  

 

Mike Elias perfectly serves the Angeloses needs right now at least at 3 levels, which is exactly in line with their history.

 

I actually have some comments on Matt's article, but I'll make them later.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Only four players with 3+ years of service time is an absolutely wild stat, really puts into perspective how young the roster is

[dude]

So my first comment is a question.  We haven't answered one yet, but I am curious.  Last year the article was titled with "Success", this year it's titled with "Expectations".  Parts of the articles seem to use them interchangeably. I have thoughts in both directions,  I think they are different.

 

For example, in the Rule 5 narrative, the expectation (I guess) is that they'll be given opportunity. Sure. What we leave out here is that that opportunity (the 2 x R5) didn't come free.  This has been discussed in some detail in other parts of the board but the Orioles lost Zach Pop and Gray Fenter in the Rule 5 also.  Not to enter the discussion again, but that's a calculated risk on the part of the Orioles and the notion of 'losing guys through the R5' was generally mocked by Melewski.

 

Sure we expect the R5 will get opportunity, but success (if you can have success in a season you don't care about competing) in terms of R5 selections will be the endstate balance (team, performance) of Sceroler, TWells, Pop and Fenter.  That seems like the analysis that should be done (which has been discussed elsewhere).

[dude]

Also, we mention the draft here.  

 

So "there is the Major League Draft..." and "...the Orioles will get another crack at it...".

 

Yes, I expect the Orioles to participate in the Draft. 

Out of curiosity, has any team - ever - chosen not to participate in the draft? 

Is participation in the Rule 4 draft an expectation we need to highlight?

[dude]

Only four players with 3+ years of service time is an absolutely wild stat, really puts into perspective how young the roster is

 

I expect the Orioles to have fewer next year.

[dude]

Only four players with 3+ years of service time is an absolutely wild stat, really puts into perspective how young the roster is

 

Not to belabor a fact like this, but the Orioles actually have 6 players with 3+ years of service as Severino and Valaika both qualify also (basically all Arb non-Super-2s), 7 depending on your definition of 'players', if you want to count pitchers (Armstrong).

 

Still not very many.  Still a hyper young roster.  Still take the under for next season.

[MattKory]

To quickly address the draft, I didn't include a whole lot about it because there isn't much to say, but I didn't want to write an article about the 2021 O's season and, more specifically, the situation they are in, and not mention the draft. It's going to be an important part of their future success, so leaving it out wasn't an option. 

 

I think that's an interesting point about the difference between success and expectations. I absolutely agree they have different meanings, though in this case I don't think they really do, at least as I was using them. The point is the O's are in a place where winning on the field isn't the goal right now, which forces us to look elsewhere to define success and set their expectations. That gets trickier, but hopefully I addressed at least some of those aspects in the article. 

[Mike B]

Only four players with 3+ years of service time is an absolutely wild stat, really puts into perspective how young the roster is

I don't think it is as young as it is going to be.  

They are going to break camp with a few aging vets...Harvey, LeBlanc, Hernandez, and a lot of cheap pick ups, like Galvis, Valaika, Lopez etc. But if things go as poorly as I expect, we will see some of the kids come up, cutting or trading the older guys.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I don't think it is as young as it is going to be.  

They are going to break camp with a few aging vets...Harvey, LeBlanc, Hernandez, and a lot of cheap pick ups, like Galvis, Valaika, Lopez etc. But if things go as poorly as I expect, we will see some of the kids come up, cutting or trading the older guys.

Well... hopefully.  It will be a better utilization of time, and more interesting to watch if the club is that much younger beginning June 1st.