59 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Sun: As payroll drops, Mike Elias says Orioles have resources to ‘execute the rebuilding strategy’ for a turnaround

[Slidemaster]

It is getting to the point that results are going to have to start being tangible rather than theoretical. This is the 3rd full year of the rebuild and some of the players who should be cornerstones of the next team that competes need to start showing their value this year.

However, the lack of effort in the offseason is very concerning. You can't *just* build from within.

[Old Man]

AT some point, stop talking having the resources, and start showing us that you are able to use them.

[dude]

I'm confident Mike Elias came into this thing with his own sets of demands and those things are likely all met.  Use the draft budget.  Leverage the IFA Pool.  Staff changes, build an analytics team, etc.  He likely wanted control with no interference in specific things.

 

He got it.  Now, when things are happening that aren't part of the agreement, he still gets to "be in charge" and take the script forward.  You want to be the point man, congratulations.  We saw this when he came forward with his 'letter' on the sale/move of the team.  You wanted to be in charge, here you go.

 

It's funny that Meoli characterizes Galvis, Hernandez and Leblanc as "meaningful additions".

 

...or how about this nugget...

" ...and the perception is the Orioles on and off the field have tried to cut costs at every turn ahead of this 2021 season."

... hey brother....it's not a perception.

 

....then you have this...

“Obviously, we’ve got to adhere to real-world economic challenges that present with what’s going on in 2020, but also being in the market that we’re in, and the part of the cycle that we’re in and the attendance cycle that we’re in, and the era of roster construction that we’re coming off of and still emerging from, but we have been able to and will be able to do everything that we need to do get this thing back up on its feet. When we need to invest much more than we’re doing right now in major league salary, and were to push our chances of making the playoffs, we’re going to be equipped to do that.”

 

<<throws up in my mouth a little>>

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Learn to accept it dude.

[Old Man]

Learn to accept it dude.

Or Walkaround.

 

Not too many options here.

[weird-O]

I think the covid shortened 2020 season has probably created delays in the projected timeline to compete. The minor league players missed a season, that's going to affect the lower level guys who are still in the early stages of career development. But I also agree with what Slidemaster said. No team has ever been completely built from within. We should see some external additions next winter. If not...well, I just stop there. 

[dude]

Learn to accept it dude.

 

You seem to seek the comfort of everyone around you rolling over with the same low expectations. 

 

I understand that my defendable position causes you anxiety.  You've been told to accept what you're given and you are expected to be happy with it.  Low expectations mean you don't have to manage failure.  You don't want to have higher expectations.

 

If you can't defeat the message, attack the messenger.  You can apply that to a lot of things. 

 

---------

 

I commented to an article presented on an Oriole message board.  Maybe you have a comment on the article.  If you have something you'd like to discuss on my comments on the article, I'm comfortable expanding the thought. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

"When we need to invest much more than we’re doing right now in major league salary, and were to push our chances of making the playoffs, we’re going to be equipped to do that.”

 

Exactly what I've said.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I cant do anything about it and neither can you. Id love for the team to have an annual payroll of 200 mil on top of investing heavily in int FA, player development, scouting. Its unhealthy to do anything other then accept it or not care about the organization anymore. For now I choose the 1st option.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

"When we need to invest much more than we’re doing right now in major league salary, and were to push our chances of making the playoffs, we’re going to be equipped to do that.”

Exactly what I've said.

That was the only thing I needed to read in the article. I'll take him at his word and we'll see what happens over the next 5 years.

[Ravens2006]

A week or two ago I rambled on and on with my take on what they're doing and how they're doing it... and somewhere near the end (I think) touched on potential excuses they might use (when the time comes) to NOT really spend competitively significant amounts of money on payroll again.

Elias kind of summarizes them right here: "...being in the market that we’re in, and the part of the cycle that we’re in and the attendance cycle that we’re in..."

So you have one perspective... where Elias saying basically "we'll spend bigger when the time is right" is all that matters, don't worry... And another (mine) where his own words ALSO serve as a warning for why they might not, or have a very very hard time doing so.

The market size excuse Elias uses is company line, again ignoring the MASN angle (which the owner himself billed as a powerful tool to help the Orioles compete on the field).

The attendance piece is pointing to lack of ticket / ballpark revenue as another excuse. You COULD interpret that as a shot at "lack of fan support", thus, not only is our market small but our fans don't support us.

All of the losing of course takes it's toll. Attendance bottomed out again before COVID because of the quality of the product they put on the field. It's not going to bounce back big again because in 2 or 3 years MAYBE they win 75 games. The occasional major league debut of a Rutschman will sell more tickets that night and maybe for a week or two. If said player doesn't light it up right away, that hype and enthusiasm dies quickly. Improving enough to only lose 85 or 90 games instead of 100 or more won't move the needles much in the big picture.

Anyway, in the same article he is supposedly reassuring fans that they'll spend what they need to, when they need to... he also prefaces it with the very built-in excuses that I'm suspicious we'll hear as excuses "when the time comes".

[Old Man]

"When we need to invest much more than we’re doing right now in major league salary, and were to push our chances of making the playoffs, we’re going to be equipped to do that.”

 

Exactly what I've said.

Right now, its just all words.

 

Their actions are not looking like they are trying to improve the parent club and be ready to compete in less than 10 years.

[weird-O]

That was the only thing I needed to read in the article. I'll take him at his word and we'll see what happens over the next 5 years.

While Elias has only been here for a couple of years, it's worth noting that many of his predecessors delivered that same message. "The day will come when we'll spend big and we'll have a team that competes every year, not just for a couple of years". It would be unfair to say he's making empty promises, because he hasn't been here long enough to deserve that doubt. And I'm sure he believes every word he's saying. The problem is, every person that held his position before him, also believed the promises they were making. The other problem is, he works for the same ownership group that all those other promise makers worked for. And that's why I have the attitude of, I'll believe it when I see it.     

[BSLChrisStoner]

Right now, its just all words.

 

Their actions are not looking like they are trying to improve the parent club and be ready to compete in less than 10 years.

 

I just can't disagree more. 

[Mike in STL]

"When we need to invest much more than we’re doing right now in major league salary, and were to push our chances of making the playoffs, we’re going to be equipped to do that.”

Exactly what I've said.

I think one hand shakes the other though. You push your chances of making the playoffs by investing.

They keep down their prospects to save a penny because they aren’t ready to win yet. But promoting them helps you win.

If you keep waiting until the stars align just right to start proactively doing what the perennial contenders do, you could end up waiting a long time.

I like what they are doing in regards to IFAs, analytics, but that just brings them up to par with the league.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think one hand shakes the other though. You push your chances of making the playoffs by investing.

They keep down their prospects to save a penny because they aren’t ready to win yet. But promoting them helps you win.

If you keep waiting until the stars align just right to start proactively doing what the perennial contenders do, you could end up waiting a long time.

I like what they are doing in regards to IFAs, analytics, but that just brings them up to par with the league.

 

When the team is ready to compete, they will augment what they have. 
If they don't, then hold them accountable. 

Until then, they've directly told us from the beginning what they're going to do, and they've done exactly that. 

[Old Man]

I just can't disagree more. 

I get that, usually, I am on the optimistic side.

 

Letting Cobb walk, and paying 10 mill of his salary and not really have a replacement for that slot, bugs the heck of me.

 

Not like they got anything in return either.

 

We shall see in ST, how the position players start lining up for what slot.

[Mike in STL]

When the team is ready to compete, they will augment what they have.
If they don't, then hold them accountable.

Until then, they've directly told us from the beginning what they're going to do, and they've done exactly that.

What signs are you looking for that shows they are ready to compete? Is it just, when they tell us they are? When specific prospects climb to the major league club? Having a certain number of wins on a certain day of the season?

Plus, when that time comes and they go to augment, are they going to do that in one off-season? Take payroll from $25M to $150M all of a sudden with the intent of making their push? What if the FA market is very weak then?

[BSLMikeLowe]

While Elias has only been here for a couple of years, it's worth noting that many of his predecessors delivered that same message. "The day will come when we'll spend big and we'll have a team that competes every year, not just for a couple of years". It would be unfair to say he's making empty promises, because he hasn't been here long enough to deserve that doubt. And I'm sure he believes every word he's saying. The problem is, every person that held his position before him, also believed the promises they were making. The other problem is, he works for the same ownership group that all those other promise makers worked for. And that's why I have the attitude of, I'll believe it when I see it.     

 

He's also doing a lot of foundational things his predecessors didn't do, or weren't allowed to do by ownership. Not saying that means he'll deliver on the ML spending promise when the time comes, but I don't necessarily think the past is a dead-on accurate predictor either.