28 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Sun: Ravens position review: RB J.K. Dobbins is a rising star, but will Gus Edwards rejoin him in Baltimore?

[JordanKough]

I'll be very disappointed if they don't bring him back. I'll be equally shocked if it doesn't happen. 

[Mike B]

If the money is even close to being right, Gus will be back.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

They'll tender him. Its just what tender they put on him. If its not the 2nd then its possible another team signs him away because as an undrafted FA there is no draft pick compensation if we offer the lowest tender.

[makoman]

They'll tender him. Its just what tender they put on him. If its not the 2nd then its possible another team signs him away because as an undrafted FA there is no draft pick compensation if we offer the lowest tender.

It's gotta be the 2nd round. The article suggests the difference is likely only $3.4M vs. $2.2M. I could see them agreeing to a 2-3 year deal to get the cap # down too with a little more guaranteed.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

True they could work out a longer deal. I expect it'll be the 2nd.

[Mackus]

I like either idea.  I expect the 2nd round tender, but a new deal that gets the cap number lower would also be good.  He may not want such a deal, RBs don't get many opportunities to cash in, so I could see him wanting to hit free agency after next season.  I doubt he gets much of a contract after 2023 or 2024 following an extension.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The thing about Gus that other teams has to question is how much is this offense and Lamar helping his numbers and how well would he perform in another offense. I dont think its a lock he'd get signed to a contract we wouldn't match if we offer the lowest tender.

[Biggsy]

The thing about Gus that other teams has to question is how much is this offense and Lamar helping his numbers and how well would he perform in another offense. I dont think its a lock he'd get signed to a contract we wouldn't match if we offer the lowest tender.

Edwards isn't an exciting runner. He's in the mold of Alfred Morris. He always makes the right read, he hits the hole hard, and very rarely ever loses yardage. He's a grinder that eventually breaks one here or there.

Because or that, I'm not sure anyone goes out of their way to steal him from us.

[makoman]

Edwards isn't an exciting runner. He's in the mold of Alfred Morris. He always makes the right read, he hits the hole hard, and very rarely ever loses yardage. He's a grinder that eventually breaks one here or there.

Because or that, I'm not sure anyone goes out of their way to steal him from us.

Also, while he was a bit better last year, he still only has 22 targets in 3 years. A lot of teams these days want more passing game impact out of their backs. This may be the ideal offense for him (other than perhaps Tennessee, but they got a guy). He has to share share time but that helps him remain fresh and consistent, plus the two are a decent change of pace from each other.

[Filmstudy]

It's gotta be the 2nd round. The article suggests the difference is likely only $3.4M vs. $2.2M. I could see them agreeing to a 2-3 year deal to get the cap # down too with a little more guaranteed.

The tender is not guaranteed.  As has been done with some OL in the past, the club has resigned them to cheaper deals.  

 

I guess Gus will get a 2nd-round tender then sign for approximately $2M or perhaps 2 years for $5M.

 

Some past examples of RFA salaries for Ravens OL:

Matt Skura: $2.133M

James Hurst: $1.2M

Ryan Jensen: $1.797M

[Mackus]

The tender is not guaranteed. As has been done with some OL in the past, the club has resigned them to cheaper deals.

I guess Gus will get a 2nd-round tender then sign for approximately $2M or perhaps 2 years for $5M.

Some past examples of RFA salaries for Ravens OL:
Matt Skura: $2.133M
James Hurst: $1.2M
Ryan Jensen: $1.797M

I get the idea of a tender and then reach an extension, but I don't think Edwards is a candidate to sign a one-year deal for cheaper than the tender. Only guys that do that are typically not as desired guys whom if the team pulled the tender after FA frenzy is over would get much less. Edwards would still get more, I think, even if he hits free agency way late. James Hurst example you gave is one guy who signed for less, I think Campanaro did it as well. But those guys were a much lower class of player than Edwards.

Skura (2020 original round tender) and Jensen (2017 original round) got RFA tender values those years, so they definitely didn't sign for anything less than what they were owed with the tender.

[Huddle It Up Films]

I feel like a 2nd round tender is inevitable for Gus. 

 

Also with his mileage being relatively low, he may be more willing to bet on himself and not accept a low end extension (ie ballpark figure of anything less than the 5 million AAV Ingram got two years ago).

 

The cap should bounce back at least somewhat next year and teams will have more to spend after desperately trying to fit under the cap this year.

[makoman]

I get the idea of a tender and then reach an extension, but I don't think Edwards is a candidate to sign a one-year deal for cheaper than the tender. Only guys that do that are typically not as desired guys whom if the team pulled the tender after FA frenzy is over would get much less. Edwards would still get more, I think, even if he hits free agency way late. James Hurst example you gave is one guy who signed for less, I think Campanaro did it as well. But those guys were a much lower class of player than Edwards.

Skura (2020 original round tender) and Jensen (2017 original round) got RFA tender values those years, so they definitely didn't sign for anything less than what they were owed with the tender.

 

I guess it depends on how desired you think Gus really is. I think he's perfect on this offense but have no idea how the league views him. Consistent 5 YPC back who shows flashes and never loses yards? Or consistently the 3rd leading rusher on the team who gives no help in the passing game and only gets 700 yards a season because of the insane rushing volume of the offense?

 

Per OTC, $3.4M would have been the 21st highest average per year among RBs. Between Jalen Richard and Matt Breida.

 

--Richard signed a 2/$7M contract before last year, but not a great comp as he's been more a receiver esp with Josh Jacobs there.

--Breida was a 2nd round tender last year at $3.25M and was in a similar place--part of a committee, under 150 carries, over 5 YPC, a bit better receiving--so maybe that's about right.

--Tevin Coleman signed a 2/$8.5M before 2019 after a year better than any of Gus's so that seems too high.

--Mike Davis signed a 2/$6M before 2019 and I'm not sure why he got that much, but I've never seen him, only looking at stats.

--Raheem Mostert signed a 3/$8.6M prior to 2019 after getting a second round tender. Only 34 carries in 2018 but lots of special teams (which Gus doesn't do too much), they saw his promise I guess.

--Jeff Wilson just signed a week ago for 1/$2M after leading the 49ers in rushing with 600 yards. So maybe that's today's market. He's only had 1 adequate year though.

 

Seems like getting around the tender amount is reasonable enough. The weird cap situation this year is a wild card so I could see it being depressed.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I do think Edwards is more valuable to the Ravens then all other teams. I think I'd try to work out a 2 or 3 yr deal.

[Huddle It Up Films]

How teams value the Ravens RBs and OLinemen is a very interesting subject.

 

On one hand LJ makes everyone look better & job easier and on the other hand the players benefit stat/grading wise from his uniqueness.

 

Without looking at the yards over expected analytics, the tape tells me that Gus is a consistent 'get more than blocked' type of player. Not a homerun threat but very consistent getting at least a little more than what's there. And although he doesn't have receiving stats, really no one else on the team does either. And he's good-very good in pass pro.

[Mackus]

Gus looked faster (and a little leaner) this year to me.  Don't know if that's just an optical illusion or if anything to it.

[Huddle It Up Films]

Gus looked faster (and a little leaner) this year to me.  Don't know if that's just an optical illusion or if anything to it.

 

I thought the same thing Mack and really it's looked like that every year. I can't remember a RB becoming faster and more elusive than he was in college compared to his peers at both levels. You've got to give him credit. Especially since he was never the expected lead back and still must have worked his butt off.

[Mike B]

Gus looked faster (and a little leaner) this year to me.  Don't know if that's just an optical illusion or if anything to it.

I thought the same thing.  In addition, toward the end of the year, Gus made some plays in the passing game.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Sun: Ravens position review: Help needed on an offensive line that collapsed in playoff loss to Bills

https://www.baltimor...yhgy-story.html