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BSL: Time To Look At Some Negative Value Trades


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#1 MattKory

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 11:41 AM

BSL: Time To Look At Some Negative Value Trades

https://baltimorespo...e-value-trades/


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@mattymatty2000

#2 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 04:16 PM

Not sure there are really any negative, long term consequences to these (or similar) type deals. Sure payroll goes up but not to the point where it would be detrimental to any other things they want to do plus none of these examples are long term anyway.

 

The question really boils down to are the O's willing to spend more money now to just put a few more wins on the field? I think we most all agree that the answer to that is no.



#3 dude

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 04:30 PM

Chris, since you liked it, I'm interested what you liked about that entry.



#4 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 04:50 PM

Chris, since you liked it, I'm interested what you liked about that entry.

 

Well, I like every contribution that our writers add. 

Here specifically I like the idea of taking on contracts elsewhere to bring back cost-controlled talent.  I've been suggesting it for 20 years, soooo yeah. 

I'm in full agreement that it is one of the things the Orioles should be doing to take advantage of the non-existent payroll obligations, and one of the benefits of building in this manner. 
 


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#5 Mackus

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 04:55 PM

Its a special kind of trolling to suggest the Orioles should acquire ANOTHER (K)Chris Davis :)
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#6 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 05:00 PM

Its a special kind of trolling to suggest the Orioles should acquire ANOTHER (K)Chris Davis :)

cfc.jpg


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she/her


#7 Mackus

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 05:05 PM

The targets are a good starting point, but I'm most interested in the idea of how valuable a prospect is and what level of prospect we could expect to get for taking on a $10M albatross or $25M or whatever.   There aren't a lot of examples of exactly this type of move, but there are more now than there were a couple years ago.



#8 dude

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 07:15 PM

1) It seems incredibly tone-deaf to suggest something like this given the things going on recently.

 

2) The notion that this is some part of a rebuild is ludicrous.  Stuff like this is available to whoever is willing to buck the prevailing cost analytics (plus 3 below)

 

3) I doubt the analysis of teams or contracts has any merit.  There's probably some places you can do it.  I significantly doubt the examples provided are them.

 

4) Maybe most importantly when you pursue something like this (and totally left out here, not surprising) is you target depth in the other teams system.  It's the component that routinely gets left out of nearly discussion by "Analysts" (loosely used).  It's Cost of Availability which nearly everyone misses.  Here too.

 

5) The even better recent example is last year with the Angels and Giants, selling off Zack Cozart and his contract to the Giants and handing them their #5 prospect (and recent 1st rounder) Will Wilson.  You have other examples like the DBacks and Braves years ago where the Braves got Touki Toussant thrown into a deal to take about 10M (iirc) of Bronson Arroyo.

 

The crazy thing about the Cozart deal is it happened on 10 DEC last year.  The Orioles having the then lowest payroll in the League were just engaged with the Angels in the Bundy trade the week before and they couldn't leverage something like this.



#9 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 07:25 PM

1) Its not tone deaf...exactly what you're referring to was addressed.

2) Building in the fashion the Orioles are - where you've cleared out future obligations - only increases your ability to do this.


Dude I don't know why you post here.

Start your own site as you've suggested for years you will.

Sign your name to articles you write and put your stuff out there.

I can't be any more direct here.

I asked Rob to not post here further because I didn't think he was good for the site.

I banned Roll Tide earlier this week, because I thought he was bad for the site.

You have knowledge.
You like talking baseball.

I appreciate that... but you derail every thread you participate in, and I won't continue to have that.

Lastly welcome to tell me and our contributors we have things wrong...but I won't have you take thinly veiled shots at the contributors (2nd time you have with Matt).



#10 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 07:33 PM

3) Generally agree.

4) Agree on targeting depth.

5) Whether the Orioles take advantage or not; we agree they should.

#11 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 10:11 PM

Dude do you have a problem specifically with Matt?

#12 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 30 January 2021 - 09:54 AM

Dude do you have a problem specifically with Matt?

I think he has a problem with any body who writes for this site. Really wish he would start his own site. Would be fun to troll on it.....lol



#13 dude

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Posted 01 February 2021 - 01:50 AM

I think he has a problem with any body who writes for this site. Really wish he would start his own site. Would be fun to troll on it.....lol

 

Hard to leave this stuff like it is.  My neighbor cut our cable line to the neighborhood (drainage ditch, accident) so we were in the stone ages for about 40 hours Friday morning to Saturday afternoon.  Anyway..

 

Steve, your statement is absurd and provably false. 

 

I'd guess I'm one of the few external people that read most (if not all) of the Orioles/MLB related articles published on this site and taken the time to comment on them.  Suggesting that I have an issue with the people or the site couldn't be further from the truth and it's a little surprising (maybe not) that no one suggested this comment is unfair.  I'm often accused of writing too many words in an effort to explain my position.  It's nearly always on content.  Content only.  


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#14 dude

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Posted 01 February 2021 - 02:04 AM

Dude do you have a problem specifically with Matt?

 

With Matt? No.  With what Matt writes?  No different then any other person I disagree with.  No different than I commented on, for example, Rob's stuff.  I don't know Matt, maybe he's a great dad and person, maybe he used to have 4 cats and 2 of them wound up in the microwave, don't know, don't really care honestly.  I don't go looking for his stuff, it's posted as an article to comment on on this site.  I don't chase down any authors, anywhere.  I have issues with lots of stuff that Meoli or Ruiz write.  I don't chase it down either unless it's posted here for comment.  Dayn Perry is THE WORST.  I think Anthony Castrovince is about as good as there is out there.  Content.

 

Like I said a couple articles ago, I sort of think Matt just wants to use Baseball as a foil for his writing style.

 

I do have a larger issue (still not personal) so there's a longer answer, you can ask for it if you want.



#15 BobPhelan

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Posted 01 February 2021 - 03:19 PM

Hard to leave this stuff like it is. My neighbor cut our cable line to the neighborhood (drainage ditch, accident) so we were in the stone ages for about 40 hours Friday morning to Saturday afternoon. Anyway..

Steve, your statement is absurd and provably false.

I'd guess I'm one of the few external people that read most (if not all) of the Orioles/MLB related articles published on this site and taken the time to comment on them. Suggesting that I have an issue with the people or the site couldn't be further from the truth and it's a little surprising (maybe not) that no one suggested his comment is unfair. I'm often accused of writing too many words in an effort to explain my position. It's nearly always on content. Content only.


For the record I’ve never had an issue with anything Dude has responded to my stuff with and I’ve always appreciated the feedback. Just glad I haven’t suffered his wrath yet! 😆
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#16 dude

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Posted 07 February 2021 - 01:02 AM

So interesting MLB trades related (sort of) to this topic and we get a Jonah Heim sighting to boot.

 

My estimation of the targets that Matt identified in this article is that those teams wouldn't be interested in dealing prospects to move those salaries.  Those teams would be much more likely to eat salary to get something back or use the off-putting salary as a swap for needs.

 

If I was going to identify targets to do something like this with (I think it's infinitely more likely the Orioles would be involved in dumping salary in this way then adding through it, whatever) then I would have suggested guys like Furcal/Odor from the Rangers or Justin Upton from the Angels or Dexter Fowler or Matt Carpenter form the Cards.

 

This week we saw Fowler dealt with money to the Angels in the same way they added Cobb. Angels targeting unwanted salary and getting cash thrown in.  The Cardinals saved a minimal amount of money with Fowler (less than the the Orioles saved) and with the commitment to Arenado and the overall salary structure of their roster, it's possible you could have targeted some depth there.

 

Today, the Rangers and A's hooked up in an inter-divisional trade swapping displaced SS Furcal for the other Khris Davis.  Some money and some minor prospects swapped in the deal, including former Oriole 4th rd pick Jonah Heim, who has apparently put himself on the catching map in recent years.

 

The A's trade out Davis' salary for Furcal because they needed a SS with Semien signing in Toronto.  The Rangers struggled with RHed hitting in recent years so they move a guy they didn't wanted for a guy they can at least use in some role.  Same for Oakland with SS....need a SS and swap out bad salary where they have other options for a position (fit) they need.  Also, both players hitting styles may be better served in the respective park changes.

 

My guess would be if you wanted something the Rangers had, they would be much more likely to package something with Davis than the A's would have been.

 

Matt discusses Heyward and while I think he's certainly available, I doubt they're dumping anything meaningful to move him.  He would probably be more available in a salary swap of some type....again, not that the Orioles are doing anything like this, but if they were in a position to do this (they aren't, they are doing the opposite of this, but if someone wanted to say 'hey, what could you do?'), then you could probably swap Santander and all of Davis's money for Heyward and Bryant.   

 

With the NL East continuing to ramp up and Bauer heading to the West Coast, I could see the Met's getting crazy and looking for a Heyward-Bryant package to swap with Cano and his money (and get someone like JD Davis++) back.  Big short-term savings for the Cubs (who release Cano and eat the 40M in 2022 and 2023) and the Met's get some headlines back.  Met's don't care about them money and swap out a disaster for offensive and defensive help in RF and at 3B.


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#17 dude

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 12:37 AM

So Josh Sborz (waiver to make room for Bauer) was just traded from the Dodgers to the Rangers for Jhan Zambrano.....

 

...anyone know why this relates to the Orioles and this thread?



#18 Mackus

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 08:08 AM

Because Jhan Zambrano is related to probably-soon-to-be-signed-to-a-minor-league-deal Carlos Zambrano?
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#19 dude

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 09:44 AM

Because Jhan Zambrano is related to probably-soon-to-be-signed-to-a-minor-league-deal Carlos Zambrano?

 

That's a good guess, but no.  Interestingly (or maybe not) Carlos Zambrano is one of the few FA pitchers I've advocated for.  Him and AJ Burnett.






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