264 replies to this topic

[Mike in STL]

We back our way in if Indy or Cle lose correct?

Yes, If Indy or Cleveland lose, Ravens can lose and get in as the 7 seed, facing Buffalo if they win at home vs. MIA, or PIT if BUF loses. However, I'm writing in sharpie a Colts win, meaning with a Ravens loss the Steelers need to win. What happens in MIA/BUF and TEN/HOU is basically meaningless if the Ravens lose. 

 

Steelers aren't even sending their top starters to Cleveland. Browns favored by 10, Browns should win. All the more reason for the Ravens to handle their business, game is must win.

 

Given those three outcomes (Ravens, Colts, Browns win) Miami must beat Buffalo to get in, and Miami is the 5 seed, or out with a loss. 

 

If Miami wins, Titans decide the AFC South and the 4 seed. Win and it is theirs, lose and it's the Colts. 

 

 

 

If the Colts and Browns win, 538 gives the Ravens an 84% chance of making the playoffs, which means an 84% chance they'll beat the Bengals.

If the Colts win and Ravens lose, they have a 33% chance of making the playoffs, meaning a 33% chance Steelers beat Cleveland. 

If the Browns win and the Ravens lose, they have a 10% chance of making the playoffs, meaning a a 10% chance Jags beat Colts.

 

I don't know the math on the probability of outcomes. But I'd say...

Least likely: Ravens are a 7 seed playing PIT.

Next least likely: 7 seed playing BUF.

Next least likely: Missing the playoffs.

Next least likely: 6 seed playing BUF.

Next least likely: 5 seed playing IND.

Then: 6 seed playing PIT. 

Most likely: 5 seed playing TEN.

[Roll Tide]

We back our way in if Indy or Cle lose correct?

YEP

[GabeFerguson]

It's likely going to come down to whether or not Miami can beat Buffalo. Will the Bills sit starters? 

 

I think its 50/50 that Miami can pull out a win. 

[russsnyder]

Haden test positive will miss Sunday and likely round 1 playoff game

Also Saints lose whole running back stable

https://www.espn.com...ara-source-says

Wow

[cprenegade]

It's likely going to come down to whether or not Miami can beat Buffalo. Will the Bills sit starters? 

 

I think its 50/50 that Miami can pull out a win. 

 

Buffalo's not sitting their starters.  They want the #2 seed.  With Ryan Fitzpatrick unavailable because of covid I would say it's only about 25% or less that Miami could pull out a win in Buffalo.  

[Mackus]

Buffalo's not sitting their starters. They want the #2 seed. With Ryan Fitzpatrick unavailable because of covid I would say it's only about 25% or less that Miami could pull out a win in Buffalo.

Bills are 3 point favorites which means it's about a 60/40 game. If you're a betting man and truly think they have a 75% chance at winning, then that's a big opportunity to get strong value.

[cprenegade]

Bills are 3 point favorites which means it's about a 60/40 game. If you're a betting man and truly think they have a 75% chance at winning, then that's a big opportunity to get strong value.

 

I am 2 behind the leader in a pick 5 a week against the spread contest, and Buffalo is one of my picks.  I don't understand the line, unless they are sitting people that I don't know about.  I would have had that line more in the 4 1/2 - 6 range.  

 

* Btw, all spreads are 1/2 points so it's 3 1/2 in our contest.

[BobPhelan]

I am 2 behind the leader in a pick 5 a week against the spread contest, and Buffalo is one of my picks. I don't understand the line, unless they are sitting people that I don't know about. I would have had that line more in the 4 1/2 - 6 range.

* Btw, all spreads are 1/2 points so it's 3 1/2 in our contest.

+3 for the Bills now. Some inactives on defense and sounds like Allen is only starting until he breaks the team passing record (40 yards away).

[Dupin]

Not the first time 3 teams from the AFC North have made the playoffs.  Must be nice being in a cupcake division.

[85Knight]

I want the Titans but I'll settle for the Colts. Right now the Bills look as scary as the Chiefs so no need to look ahead at divisional round possibilities.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Just play your best and win. I don't care who it's against. With the possible opponents being who they are, all that truly matters is just being prepared and executing next weekend.

[russsnyder]

Just play your best and win. I don't care who it's against. With the possible opponents being who they are, all that truly matters is just being prepared and executing next weekend.

I agree.

You can't control it anyway.

Ravens seem to be peaking at the right time.

[Ravens2006]

I'd much rather see the Colts in round one. Ravens should be able to road grade them too and force a Rivers turnover or three. Get a playoff win and some confidence to then head in to the lion's den carrying a spear and yelling "Where is the SOB!?!?!?"

[85Knight]

I agree.

You can't control it anyway.

Ravens seem to be peaking at the right time.

Of course the team feels that way but as fans we can get a little crazy. At the end of the day the goal is the same. Just win!

[BSLChrisStoner]

Gonna be the Titans and I'm pleased by that. They are owed. Let's go!

[Roll Tide]

I agree.

You can't control it anyway.

Ravens seem to be peaking at the right time.

Please don’t be fooled they beat the Cowboys, Browns, Giants, Jaguars, and Bengals.

I’m fine that we handled our business but we played 4 horrible teams and a Browns teams that doesn’t make the playoffs if the Ben had played today. They were lucky to win against Mason Freakin Rudolph

I’m hoping the Titans lose as I think we can beat the Colts. I have 0 confidence we can beat the Titans.

[Mackus]

No chance against a team we went to OT against. Seems like a good evaluation.

[hallas]

No chance against a team we went to OT against. Seems like a good evaluation.

I have visions of Derrick Henry running over patrick queen and I don't like it.

[85Knight]

No chance against a team we went to OT against. Seems like a good evaluation.

It's not just who they're playing but how they're playing. Just looking at the competition is lazy analysis. The execution, schemes and play calling on offense are all better than they were earlier in the season. They've made adjustments and gotten better regardless of who the competition is.

[Roll Tide]

No chance against a team we went to OT against. Seems like a good evaluation.

Your a jerk! I said I have 0 confidence that we can beat the Titans. I did not say we had no chance. Are you illiterate or just pushing an agenda?