Photo

BSL: Multiple Paths From Here To Contention


  • Please log in to reply
92 replies to this topic

#81 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,675 posts

Posted 22 December 2020 - 02:42 PM

So this is interesting and the responses are too long.  Let me sum up.

 

I'd still contend the best I could reasonably do year over year is 35% chance to make the Playoffs.  Lot's of discussion on it, I won't rehash, but if we want to do it again, ok.

 

The Night Moves Plan was a 5 year plan in 2019.  You, Rob, others said it wasn't good enough.  I asked you what good enough looked liked (any year in the future) and you have taken a hard pass.  I'd argue that team is as good or better (less performance risk, less acquisition risk) than the "Next Playoff Team" that Matt described in his 3rd article.  It also has some of the players in it that described as options for the newly competitive, rebuilt Orioles.

 

The reason I ask those questions before is because we predictably wind up in this spot.  Of course, I could just take your approach here and say, "I have no idea what it's going to look like, but I KNOW we're going to be legit Playoff Team in 2023".

 

I'm happy to talk about "What I'd do" in any year, including this one.  The threads never really generate any discussion other than the continued parsing of why 'nothing can ever happen'.  Then you have the "Fantasy baseball" and "TLDR" comments, which are fine (I don't care), but there's really nothing else.  I look putting those thoughts together as an exercise on Orioles Baseball on an Orioles Baseball Message Board, but in the rebuilding environment you get the "that's not what we're doing right now" also.

 

I think we're at Night Moves 5 this offseason so... <<shrug>>  Haven't really had a reason to change my mind. More than one option though.


You refer to this Night Moves sometime, I honestly have no idea what you are referring to. 
You wrote something at some point? Great, I legitimately have no recollection. If I said it wasn't good enough, it was likely because while I thought you improved the team for that year, you didn't improve it enough to make it a worthwhile endeavor.

 



1) Percentage chance any individual year?  Too many variables. What's around you, where exactly are you? You want to say that NY and Boston will always have their revenue (and typically quality FOs), and Tampa Bay is extremely well run, and Toronto has young talent... so over the next 5 years regardless of what you (the Orioles do) your chances of winning the East are no higher than 35%? Okay, whatever. But if I build a team whose true talent is a 90+ win team going into a season, then I'm not overly concerned about whoever else. If I've taken a pass on what good enough looks like, it's because there is context missing to that question. The hypothetical teams you've presented previously all share characteristics of having very limited windows, and while having a a chance to play-up and be 'good enough', wouldn't start years as prohibitive favorites. Which in-general is fine. It's certainly one of the many ways you could build a team.

 

2) We don't predictably end up in the same spot. The reason why my teams are 'vague' are because I'm about obtaining assets, and gaining payroll flexibility. Then using that accumulated depth and salary flexibility to address existing weaknesses when the rest of what you've assembled is ready.  You want to identify who you need to move forward with today. I want a group with extended team control, and further depth on the way.  You like giving away control tomorrow to give yourself a better x % chance today.

 

2a) That said what I've suggested at this point isn't that vague. It's this is who I see. These are the variables. These are the likely areas of target. Here are the adjustments I'd make if who I see doesn't work, or xyz variable happens.

 

 

3) You post what you want to post.  If you like posting about the shadow moves you'd make now, and what opportunity exists, and why you think your plan is a better approach... have at it.  For myself, it would be a more enjoyable read vs. hearing your thoughts on rebuilding for the 1000th time, or hearing you again state that the only reason Elias was hired was to sell rebuilding to the fanbase while expenses were cut to make it easier for the Angelos family to sell... 



#82 BSLSteveBirrer

BSLSteveBirrer

    Soccer Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,052 posts
  • LocationMS and ID

Posted 22 December 2020 - 02:48 PM

Lets have a contest.

 

I get $200M/year to spend on my baseball team.

 

Dude get's $100M/year to spend on his baseball team.

 

Whose team are you going to bet on to make the playoffs?



#83 BSLSteveBirrer

BSLSteveBirrer

    Soccer Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,052 posts
  • LocationMS and ID

Posted 22 December 2020 - 02:49 PM

Money is probably the most important tool.  I'd imagine that payroll correlates more highly to winning than any other definable factor.

 

But the correlation is pretty low.  Money isn't an absolute requirement for winning nor is it a guarantee if you do spend it. 

 

It definitely makes things much easier.

All I am trying to say.



#84 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 23,247 posts

Posted 22 December 2020 - 04:42 PM

I like Bob Seger.
  • BSLChrisStoner and BSLSteveBirrer like this

#85 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,573 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 22 December 2020 - 11:41 PM

I don't really have anything new to add to your comments.  I could repeat words where I disagree, but I'll skip it.

 

one comment here...

 

......, or hearing you again state that the only reason Elias was hired was to sell rebuilding to the fanbase while expenses were cut to make it easier for the Angelos family to sell... 

 

Odd how you can't remember things that I've said, but you are comfortable getting this totally wrong.  Never said either part and the second part is specifically wrong, literally backwards.



#86 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,675 posts

Posted 23 December 2020 - 07:42 AM

I don't really have anything new to add to your comments. I could repeat words where I disagree, but I'll skip it.

one comment here...


Odd how you can't remember things that I've said, but you are comfortable getting this totally wrong. Never said either part and the second part is specifically wrong, literally backwards.


If I have it wrong, just say what I have wrong.

#87 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,573 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 24 December 2020 - 10:20 AM

If I have it wrong, just say what I have wrong.

 

I mean this as a serious question.  Do you really have no idea what I'm talking about?  It relates directly to this thread because I'd guess there's something bigger (at least for John and Lou) going on than when the Orioles take a step forward to try and compete.

 

There is a precursor event to making any effort (spending) at the ML level. 

That has nothing to do with any opinion or perspective on timelines and templates for competing.



#88 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,675 posts

Posted 24 December 2020 - 11:44 AM

I mean this as a serious question.  Do you really have no idea what I'm talking about?  It relates directly to this thread because I'd guess there's something bigger (at least for John and Lou) going on than when the Orioles take a step forward to try and compete.

 

There is a precursor event to making any effort (spending) at the ML level. 

That has nothing to do with any opinion or perspective on timelines and templates for competing.

 

I have no idea what you are talking about. 


  • BSLSteveBirrer likes this

#89 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,573 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 03 July 2022 - 10:44 PM

bump



#90 mweb08

mweb08

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 30,294 posts
  • LocationRidgely's Delight

Posted 06 December 2022 - 06:55 PM

I'm looking at some old posts and damn, this is quite the bump! (talking about dude's bump, not mine)



#91 Pedro Cerrano

Pedro Cerrano

    I Miss McNulty

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 35,429 posts
  • LocationEllicott City, MD

Posted 06 December 2022 - 07:05 PM

Lets have a contest.

I get $200M/year to spend on my baseball team.

Dude get's $100M/year to spend on his baseball team.

Whose team are you going to bet on to make the playoffs?


You, Steve. I’d bet on you.
  • BSLSteveBirrer likes this

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

@bopper33


#92 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,573 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 06 December 2022 - 07:10 PM

IF the Orioles move to win in 2022 or 2023, it will have basically nothing to do with the 2019-2021 seasons.

 

No change.



#93 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,573 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 06 December 2022 - 10:48 PM

I'm looking at some old posts and damn, this is quite the bump! (talking about dude's bump, not mine)

 

post #62






0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users


Our Sponsors


 width=