92 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

BSL: Multiple Paths From Here To Contention

https://baltimorespo...-to-contention/

[24fps]

Great article.  I'm already looking forward to the 2021-2022 off season.  I will have reached the end of my patience with this rebuilding business and will be more than ready for seeing a competitive team start to come into focus.

 

The baseball gods really need to give us a full 162 games in 2021.

[Mike B]

BSL: Multiple Paths From Here To Contention

https://baltimorespo...-to-contention/

Very thought provoking article. Everyone loooks at this rebuild a little differently.  I had hoped the Orioles would be slightly aggressive this off season, because with the no fan season, I think some of the free agents are going to have to settle for lesser contracts, and there will be bargains to pick up.  It sounds like we are going to go the minor league contract route again.

I am not as optimisitc about 22 as you are.

I think you are right on in regards to the young pitching.  If we hit with 2 or 3 of them, the future becomes much brighter.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Good article Chris. I am pretty much on board with your thoughts with one exception. I am not seeing Stewart as a real option, even for the bench. Hopefully Diaz comes through and then its not much of an issue.

[Mike B]

Good article Chris. I am pretty much on board with your thoughts with one exception. I am not seeing Stewart as a real option, even for the bench. Hopefully Diaz comes through and then its not much of an issue.

I feel the same as Stewart.  I think there are going to be options that are better than DJ.  His OBP keeps him in the picture, but eventually he will need to do damage to stick as a DH.

[dude]

I guess I don't have much issue with what is presented. I don't agree with all of it, but you could have a discussion about it. We can get to that.

The only important thing about this is that it ends the debate on the relevance of the 2019, 2020 and the 2021 seasons to competing in the future.

The issues in the discussions we've had is the push back in terms of being able to build Win Now and Win Later.

IF the Orioles move to win in 2022 or 2023, it will have basically nothing to do with the 2019-2021 seasons.

The 2022+ roster is just the most reasonable culmination of whatever could/would have been there.

The 2019-2021 seasons aren't important to get to Chris's 2022 'multiple paths to contention'.
With or without 'rebuilding', you can wind up in the exact same place 4-5 years down the line. That's always been my point.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I guess I don't have much issue with what is presented. I don't agree with all of it, but you could have a discussion about it. We can get to that.

The only important thing about this is that it ends the debate on the relevance of the 2019, 2020 and the 2021 seasons to competing in the future.

The issues in the discussions we've had is the push back in terms of being able to build Win Now and Win Later.

IF the Orioles move to win in 2022 or 2023, it will have basically nothing to do with the 2019-2021 seasons.

The 2022+ roster is just the most reasonable culmination of whatever could/would have been there.

The 2019-2021 seasons aren't important to get to Chris's 2022 'multiple paths to contention'.
With or without 'rebuilding', you can wind up in the exact same place 4-5 years down the line. That's always been my point.

 

That's a short-sighted way to look at things. 

Just because the '22 and '23 rosters could be comprised of what could have been here... doesn't mean the steps taken in '19-'21 won't have larger later impact. 

And it could still directly impact '22 and '23 in-terms of leaving you additional salary to address weaknesses via FA or trade... or increasing MiL depth for trades (or utilization due to injuries or other). 

 

There are multiple ways to build teams
The O's could have built in a way to have more competitive teams '19-'21, but I think how they've chosen to build will lead to more significant results quicker, and allow for a more sustained run later.

[RShack]

That's a short-sighted way to look at things. 

Just because the '22 and '23 rosters could be comprised of what could have been here... doesn't mean the steps taken in '19-'21 won't have larger later impact. 

And it could still directly impact '22 and '23 in-terms of leaving you additional salary to address weaknesses via FA or trade... or increasing MiL depth for trades (or utilization due to injuries or other). 

 

There are multiple ways to build teams
The O's could have built in a way to have more competitive teams '19-'21, but I think how they've chosen to build will lead to more significant results quicker, and allow for a more sustained run later.

 

If you want to rebuild to be better than a .500 team, it takes 5 years regardless of whether you treat the fans like dirt of not.

[BSLChrisStoner]

If you want to rebuild to be better than a .500 team, it takes 5 years regardless of whether you treat the fans like dirt of not.

You've made the assertion before that fans are being treated like dirt, I continue to disagree. 

Much rather be told honestly, "We're not in a position to compete, this is what we're doing about it," vs. 1998-2011 where we're told, "We're trying! If things go right, we might reach .500." 

[RShack]

You've made the assertion before that fans are being treated like dirt, I continue to disagree. 

Much rather be told honestly, "We're not in a position to compete, this is what we're doing about it," vs. 1998-2011 where we're told, "We're trying! If things go right, we might reach .500." 

 

We both know why your time period, above, stopped at 2011.

 

When they make a point of *trying* to put a crappy team on the field, they're treating the fans like dirt.

 

p.s.  Don't confuse the fan base with the minuscule minority of fans who are on message boards and sports talk radio.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I guess I don't have much issue with what is presented. I don't agree with all of it, but you could have a discussion about it. We can get to that.

The only important thing about this is that it ends the debate on the relevance of the 2019, 2020 and the 2021 seasons to competing in the future.

The issues in the discussions we've had is the push back in terms of being able to build Win Now and Win Later.

IF the Orioles move to win in 2022 or 2023, it will have basically nothing to do with the 2019-2021 seasons.

The 2022+ roster is just the most reasonable culmination of whatever could/would have been there.

The 2019-2021 seasons aren't important to get to Chris's 2022 'multiple paths to contention'.
With or without 'rebuilding', you can wind up in the exact same place 4-5 years down the line. That's always been my point.

So you don't think that the team has gotten or will get any useful information on their roster makeup based upon the 2019-2021 seasons?

[BSLChrisStoner]

We both know why your time period, above, stopped at 2011.

 

When they make a point of *trying* to put a crappy team on the field, they're treating the fans like dirt.

 

p.s.  Don't confuse the fan base with the minuscule minority of fans who are on message boards and sports talk radio.

Yeah, it stopped at 2011 because their position changed. 

 

Shack imo, your view points on organization building have been off-base as long as I've seen you posting.*

 

*However, your posts about how many players you 'need', thoughts on what you need from starters is good.   

For some reason you've always been resistant to the path which is most likely to reach the outcomes you want roster wise. 

 

To the last line of don't confuse the fan base.   That means nothing to me. 
You put people you believe in in-charge, and you allow them to operate. You don't operate to placate the fans with moves you don't believe in. 

 

[RShack]

Shack imo, your view points on organization building have been off-base as long as I've seen you posting.*

 

Yeah, I know.   I stopped posting here about baseball when you told me my views on baseball were nothing but "white noise" unless I played the game of being a pretend-GM and providing you with a pretend budget.

 

My views on org-building are based on available evidence.

 

For some reason you've always been resistant to the path which is most likely to reach the outcomes you want roster wise. 

 

You've reached a faith-based conclusion that is unsupported by available evidence.  Which is OK.  The problem is that you think it makes others wrong.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Yeah, I know.   I stopped posting here about baseball when you told me my views were nothing but "white noise" unless I played the game of being a pretend-GM and providing you with a pretend budget.

 

My views on org-building are based on available evidence.

 

 

That is a faith-based conclusion that is unsupported by available evidence.

 

It's always been easier for you to chirp from the seats. 

And no, it's not a faith based conclusion.  Ridiculous assertion. 

[RShack]

It's always been easier for you to chirp from the seats. 

And no, it's not a faith based conclusion.  Ridiculous assertion. 

 

OK

[Mackus]

So you don't think that the team has gotten or will get any useful information on their roster makeup based upon the 2019-2021 seasons?

 

I don't think that information outweighs the downsides of acquiring it.  And I think almost all of the positive information they find out would still have been acquired had the teams been constructed a bit more palatably in terms of the on-field product.

 

DJ Stewart probably doesn't get much of an opportunity if I was running things, we'd have better players filling the spot that he got.  He played well, but I can live with that.  He's the only one, I think.  Ryan Mountcastle certainly gets discovered just the same (sooner, most likely).  Same with Akin and Kremer. 

[dude]

Just because the '22 and '23 rosters could be comprised of what could have been here... doesn't mean the steps taken in '19-'21 won't have larger later impact. 

 

Nope.  There's almost nothing that the Orioles have done from 2019-2021 that couldn't have been done regardless of their Win Position.

 

The ONLY things you have to account for is the one unique pick each year as a function of poor record.

 

for the 2019 season, the name of that person is Heston Kjerstad. 

We will have the 5th pick this year and probably another top 10 pick in 2022 (2021 record)

 

The impact of the Astros selections would have been zero if they'd signed their second guy.  Appel and Aiken = 0 WAR.  Because they didn't sign Aiken, they drafted Bregman and while he's been great (moreso after 2017), he's also tainted by the Astros cheating.

 

The 3 players you align with that in Chicago are Bryant, Schwarber and Almora.  Schwarber and Almora were non-tendered this year.  They will dump Bryant if they can....so literally no impact outside of the 6-year window in terms of anything they do or don't do.

 

Neither the Astros or Cubs have delivered on anything you are describing in terms of longer-term consequences of rebuilding.

 

And it could still directly impact '22 and '23 in-terms of leaving you additional salary to address weaknesses via FA or trade... 

 

 

Again, this is just fake narrative.  You want to make the assumption that in order to be competitive in the 2019-2021 seasons the Orioles had to go out and sign stupid big dollar contracts that prevent you from handing out similar big dollar contracts you want to hand out in 2022.

 

I didn't want them then and I don't want them next. 

[dude]

There are multiple ways to build teams

The O's could have built in a way to have more competitive teams '19-'21, but I think how they've chosen to build will lead to more significant results quicker, and allow for a more sustained run later.

 

This is pre-rebuilding opinion.  The 2019-2021 seasons are over (ok, the 2021 season isn't over yet, but it essentially is).

 

We now know the names of everything they've done.  Short of the early picks, nothing they've done couldn't have been done regardless of win position.  Maybe you don't have all 15 guys (whatever), but you could certainly have most of them.

 

If your team thinks Easton Lucas or Terrin Varva or Issac Mattson is a thing, you can get those players.  'Rebuilding' is not needed to do it. Any. Of. It.  That's just Identification, acquisition and development of Talent (and TBD on all of those guys, we don't know if any of them are even any good, most are down the road)

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I don't think that information outweighs the downsides of acquiring it.  And I think almost all of the positive information they find out would still have been acquired had the teams been constructed a bit more palatably in terms of the on-field product.

 

DJ Stewart probably doesn't get much of an opportunity if I was running things, we'd have better players filling the spot that he got.  He played well, but I can live with that.  He's the only one, I think.  Ryan Mountcastle certainly gets discovered just the same (sooner, most likely).  Same with Akin and Kremer. 

I guess I am a bit confused. Are the O's not gaining information on those three guys? Now if you want to asset that they would even had the O's went out and bought a bunch of players to be a better on field product then Ok I can see that's a possibility. But that's not what Dude said. He said that what happens/happened in 2019-2021 will have nothing to do with being competitive in 2022 or 2023.  I just think that is flat wrong.

[Old Man]

The baseball gods really need to give us a full 162 games in 2021.

I agree, but think covid is a bit outside of the baseball god's purview.