How have you guys felt about some of the results the last two match weeks?
Reason I ask is during my last year at school I dove into more math classes, wanted to learn more about probability, big data analysis, etc...
Long story short I took a little of what I learned and wanted to apply it for gambling purposes. Worth noting, I haven't bet anything yet. Just tracking and seeing how it plays out before I risk anything. I started tracking it 8 match weeks ago. Had I been betting with it, here's how the match weeks would have played out.
9 - +2.57 units
10 - +4.64
11 - +5.68
12 - +8.53
13 - +2.31
14 - +4.68
15 - -5.67 (negative)
16 (most recent) +0.2
6 straight making a profit. Then a hard negative, and now breaking about even. Still, +22.94 units for a little more than a months work.
Couple things. I chose soccer for two reasons.
1. The model works best for sports where the score increases by 1, and stays relatively low. (I am going to try this for hockey and baseball as well).
2. Complete objectivity on my end. I can't name 5 players in the EPL so I'm less likely to make biased bets based on what my head or heart thinks.
The problem with number 2 is, as I track the scores, I can't help but notice what teams are doing what, so subjectivity can creep in. For example, yesterday, I would have picked a draw for Man U vs. Wolves. The three most likely outcomes I predicted were 1-1, 0-0, and 1-0. There was no value in betting Man U to win, but great value on betting the draw, ML of +319. I check the score to see that it was a draw for 93 minutes!!! Until it wasn't. Granted, 1-0 was one of the more likely outcomes, but the model said draw, and a +3.19 unit win would look a hell of lot better than -1. So now I'm thinking, are Wolves choke artists? Is that going to affect my decision making when the time comes that I start wagering? When Liverpool puts up 7 goals a few matches ago. I can't name a guy on the team, but when I'm looking at the model and Liverpool comes up...that 7 goals is in the back of my mind.
Back to my original question. The last two match weeks, for those of you that follow the sport, has it been a bit wacky?
Liverpool drawing twice with low scores, to bad teams, after putting up a 7 goal outing (my model stops at 6. lol).
Southampton hasn't scored for three games now but their shot ratio and expected goals ratio is often better than their opponent, and the value has been there to bet them to win. But three times straight, goose eggs and -1 unit for the bettors.
Model said Chelsea should have kicked the hell out of Aston Villa. Chelsea's shot and expected goal ratio always far exceeds the opponent they've matched up with. Maybe not kicked the hell out of, but should have beaten Arsenal as well. Maybe draw, but definitely not lose 3-1.
What say you guys? Is Chelsea not as good as the numbers suggest? Do they shoot alot just for the sake of shooting, but aren't good at hitting the net? Liverpool play down to opponents? Southampton actually not good at scoring goals despite their numbers, and 270+ minutes of shutout isn't surprising? Wolves actually bad and didn't deserve to draw Man U anyway?
Is a little subjectivity good for betting? I'm a football guy, so if there is "value" in betting on Jacksonville to cover a spread against Kansas City, I still wouldn't bet it because I know, or at least perceive, Jacksonville to suck. Should I start to adjust my picks accordingly in Soccer? Or was the last week or so just wacky?
I'll probably keep tracking, start tracking the other big leagues like Bundesliga and Serie A, La Liga. Down week or two bound to happen. But if another month is profitable, start betting it....and assuredly regress to the mean and go broke