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Premier League Talk 2020-21


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#41 DuffMan

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Posted 13 November 2020 - 11:36 AM

So for example, would Pulisic would be expected to play for Chelsea tomorrow? But if he had played for the U.S. yesterday, would he sit out the Chelsea game tomorrow for load management, or something? Was his EPL commitment that writes him a paycheck, the reason he didn't play an Int'l friendly? 

Sorry for my shorthand, I could have explained that better.  When I said no games I meant that there are no EPL games on the schedule for the International Break.  This allows the players to play for their country without missing and EPL games.

 

As far as Pulisic goes, he didn't play in the friendly because he's dinged up again. (seriously I'm going to start calling him Lil Altidore if he keeps getting hurt)


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#42 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 13 November 2020 - 01:25 PM

Sorry for my shorthand, I could have explained that better.  When I said no games I meant that there are no EPL games on the schedule for the International Break.  This allows the players to play for their country without missing and EPL games.

 

As far as Pulisic goes, he didn't play in the friendly because he's dinged up again. (seriously I'm going to start calling him Lil Altidore if he keeps getting hurt)

Gotcha. Didn't realize they had breaks unless it was World Cup, Olympics.


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#43 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 16 November 2020 - 07:42 AM

Gotcha. Didn't realize they had breaks unless it was World Cup, Olympics.

Mike,

 

There are typically five official FIFA breaks every year. Those breaks are to enable national teams to train and play without missing club matches. These breaks are held to enable:

1. Qualifying and playing for the World Cup, EUROs, League of Nations, Asian Cup, etc.

2. Friendlies (although this time clubs were not required to release players pending the rules of their leagues for dealing with Covid....which is why Josh Sargent is not in our camp.)

 

FIFA breaks do not occur for things like Champions League since these are club matches and not related to national teams.


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#44 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 November 2020 - 09:03 PM

ESPN: Lampard 'still searching' for Pulisic injury solution

 

Lack of common sense in Premier League scheduling, says Chelse

#45 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 23 November 2020 - 01:29 PM

https://www.espn.com...west-risk-areas

 

Fans returning on a limited basis starting Dec 2.



#46 glenn__davis

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Posted 23 November 2020 - 02:52 PM

Fulham has missed 3 penalty kicks in recent games, all 3 of which would theoretically have cost a draw or win (with the understanding that the game could have played out differently).  Could very well be a difference in a fight for relegation.  But still, it's been nice to actually be able to watch their games this year!


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#47 Mashed Potatoes

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Posted 25 November 2020 - 06:24 AM

Fulham has missed 3 penalty kicks in recent games, all 3 of which would theoretically have cost a draw or win (with the understanding that the game could have played out differently). Could very well be a difference in a fight for relegation. But still, it's been nice to actually be able to watch their games this year!


They're going back down regardless by the end of the season. Talent level is a cut below
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#48 Russ

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Posted 06 December 2020 - 01:40 PM

Tottenham look like the best team in the Prem right now.



#49 Mashed Potatoes

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Posted 06 December 2020 - 06:45 PM

Tottenham look like the best team in the Prem right now.


No they don't. That would be Liverpool even despite their injuries. Man City will also finish ahead of Tottenham.
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#50 Russ

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Posted 06 December 2020 - 06:49 PM

No they don't. That would be Liverpool even despite their injuries. Man City will also finish ahead of Tottenham.

 

My man, I did not say they would win the Prem.



#51 glenn__davis

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Posted 07 December 2020 - 09:25 AM

They're going back down regardless by the end of the season. Talent level is a cut below

 

OH YEAH WELL UR TALENT LEVEL IS A CUT BELOW!!!!

 

We'll see.  Right now looks like a fight between 4 teams, 1 of which will make the cut.  Long way to go though, Fulham has looked better of late including a huge win against Leiceister.


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#52 Mashed Potatoes

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Posted 07 December 2020 - 01:38 PM

My man, I did not say they would win the Prem.

 

My man, I know Mourinho ball is built on the counterattack but we cannot in good conscience say a team that had 30% possession and generated 3 shots on goal against the 15th placed team in the table looks the best in the premier league at the moment. 


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#53 glenn__davis

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Posted 14 December 2020 - 07:31 AM

Fulham with a great draw against Liverpool.  Really should have had the game won if not for an unfortunate and stupid handball in the box late in the game.  So they come away with 4 points against a tough stretch against Leiceister, Man City and Liverpool.  Playing much better but back in the relegation zone because Arsenal lost to Burnley of all teams...



#54 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 14 December 2020 - 10:28 AM

Fulham with a great draw against Liverpool.  Really should have had the game won if not for an unfortunate and stupid handball in the box late in the game.  So they come away with 4 points against a tough stretch against Leiceister, Man City and Liverpool.  Playing much better but back in the relegation zone because Arsenal lost to Burnley of all teams...

 

I actually thought they got robbed twice in that match. 

 

1. They had an attacking player get taken down in the box. To me the VAR clearly showed that the defender tackled the ankle of the attacker and then the follow through got the ball. The VAR official called it that way and told the Ref. The Ref then reviewed the video and said no its just a corner. Terrible in my book. My wife came into the room during the replay and asked me "what's the review for.....clearly that's a penalty."  My wife did a better job than the Ref there.

 

2. Then I hated the hand ball call. The defenders arm was compressed against his body. Just go back to the good old days. That was not hand to ball it was ball to hand.

 

But the good news is that LB Antonee Robinson was MOTM. As far as I am concerned the USMNT have out outside back pairing nailed down for the next qualifying. ARob at LB and Dest at RB. Solid if not damn good!!


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#55 glenn__davis

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Posted 14 December 2020 - 11:52 AM

Yeah, I thought that play in the box was a foul as well, but then Fulham scored just a few moments later which I figured they probably wouldn't have done had the penalty been given, so it all evened out haha.

 

And yes, Robinson has been terrific for them all year.  Bright future for him for sure.


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#56 Mashed Potatoes

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Posted 14 December 2020 - 02:21 PM

I don't think the Fabinho tackle in the box should've been called (though I understand given the current standard why it could've been). Shout out to Fulham for really taking it to Liverpool right from the jump, took us awhile to get control of the game, and God I miss our full starting lineup! Loftus Cheek in form really changes the dynamic of Fulham's attack with his size and speed (especially against Matip/Fabinho in the back which has to be the slowest centerback pairing in the premier league AND the Championship).


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#57 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 16 December 2020 - 05:24 PM

Liverpool beat the Spurs 2-1 today taking over sole possession of first. The Spurs have only won once  in their last 4 EPL matches having gone 1-2-1.



#58 Mashed Potatoes

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Posted 17 December 2020 - 06:03 AM

Loved Jose telling Klopp that the better team lost today despite only have 25% of possession (part of the plan) and 1/4 the amount of shots on goal (not the plan). Like yea you had chances but you didn't finish and Liverpool had more that they also didn't finish.
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#59 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 27 December 2020 - 08:36 PM

ESPN: Tottenham's current winless run a massive test for Mourinho and his relationship with his players
https://www.espn.com...ith-his-players



#60 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 30 December 2020 - 11:33 PM

How have you guys felt about some of the results the last two match weeks? 

 

Reason I ask is during my last year at school I dove into more math classes, wanted to learn more about probability, big data analysis, etc...

 

Long story short I took a little of what I learned and wanted to apply it for gambling purposes. Worth noting, I haven't bet anything yet. Just tracking and seeing how it plays out before I risk anything. I started tracking it 8 match weeks ago. Had I been betting with it, here's how the match weeks would have played out. 

 

9 - +2.57 units

10 - +4.64

11 - +5.68

12 - +8.53

13 - +2.31

14 - +4.68

15 -  -5.67 (negative)

16 (most recent) +0.2 

 

6 straight making a profit. Then a hard negative, and now breaking about even. Still, +22.94 units for a little more than a months work.

 

Couple things. I chose soccer for two reasons.

1. The model works best for sports where the score increases by 1, and stays relatively low. (I am going to try this for hockey and baseball as well).

2. Complete objectivity on my end. I can't name 5 players in the EPL so I'm less likely to make biased bets based on what my head or heart thinks.

 

The problem with number 2 is, as I track the scores, I can't help but notice what teams are doing what, so subjectivity can creep in. For example, yesterday, I would have picked a draw for Man U vs. Wolves. The three most likely outcomes I predicted were 1-1, 0-0, and 1-0. There was no value in betting Man U to win, but great value on betting the draw, ML of +319. I check the score to see that it was a draw for 93 minutes!!! Until it wasn't. Granted, 1-0 was one of the more likely outcomes, but the model said draw, and a +3.19 unit win would look a hell of lot better than -1. So now I'm thinking, are Wolves choke artists? Is that going to affect my decision making when the time comes that I start wagering? When Liverpool puts up 7 goals a few matches ago. I can't name a guy on the team, but when I'm looking at the model and Liverpool comes up...that 7 goals is in the back of my mind.

 

Back to my original question. The last two match weeks, for those of you that follow the sport, has it been a bit wacky? 

 

Liverpool drawing twice with low scores, to bad teams, after putting up a 7 goal outing (my model stops at 6. lol).

 

Southampton hasn't scored for three games now but their shot ratio and expected goals ratio is often better than their opponent, and the value has been there to bet them to win. But three times straight, goose eggs and -1 unit for the bettors.

 

Model said Chelsea should have kicked the hell out of Aston Villa. Chelsea's shot and expected goal ratio always far exceeds the opponent they've matched up with. Maybe not kicked the hell out of, but should have beaten Arsenal as well. Maybe draw, but definitely not lose 3-1.

 

What say you guys? Is Chelsea not as good as the numbers suggest? Do they shoot alot just for the sake of shooting, but aren't good at hitting the net? Liverpool play down to opponents? Southampton actually not good at scoring goals despite their numbers, and 270+ minutes of shutout isn't surprising? Wolves actually bad and didn't deserve to draw Man U anyway? 

 

Is a little subjectivity good for betting? I'm a football guy, so if there is "value" in betting on Jacksonville to cover a spread against Kansas City, I still wouldn't bet it because I know, or at least perceive, Jacksonville to suck. Should I start to adjust my picks accordingly in Soccer? Or was the last week or so just wacky? 

 

I'll probably keep tracking, start tracking the other big leagues like Bundesliga and Serie A, La Liga. Down week or two bound to happen. But if another month is profitable, start betting it....and assuredly regress to the mean and go broke :)


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