397 replies to this topic

[Nigel Tufnel]

Law also said that he's going to do a separate article for each team starting this week, so we have that to look forward to.

[dude]

I'm not sure what metric you'd be using to assess that there are 17 minor league systems better than the Orioles.

 

Several years ago, Law rated the Orioles as the 30th best system when they clearly weren't.  I figured maybe he was just setting up a position to pander to Elias and Co to gain access or whatever when he would reflect the significant rise in the system.

 

I was wrong.  He's just incompetent.  

[Mackus]

I've got no idea how high our system should rank but synopsis feels absolutely accurate to me. Seems to me like we've got one stud (Rutschman), two good to great prospects (Rodriguez, Hall), and then a lot of interesting guys.

I feel like we're deeper in terms of intriguing guys than we've been in quite a while. But I don't know how they compare to most other teams. Also hard to say which of the intriguing guys may actually be good prospects since we missed a year of development.

[BobPhelan]

Baseball America ranked the Orioles 7th, the highest they have in their 32 year history.

[Nigel Tufnel]

1. Adley
2. DL Hall
3. Rodriguez
4. Kjerstad
5. Mountcastle
6. Adam Hall
7. Gunnar Henderson
8. Michael Baumann
9. Jahmai Jones
10. Dean Kremer
11. Yusnial Diaz
12. Zac Lowther
13. Keegan Akin
14. Kevin Smith
15. Jordan Westberg
16. Terrin Vavra
17. Tyler Nevin
18. Hudson Haskin
19. Ryan McKenna
20. Kyle Bradish

Others of Note: Alex Wells, Coby Mayo, Isaac Matson, Carter Baumler, Rylan Bannon

 

2021 Impact: Mountcastle, Kremer, Akin to start the season, with Matson, Baumann, and Lowther appearing later

 

Sleeper:  Nevin

 

Orioles 2021 prospect rankings: Keith Law on Baltimore’s top 20 – The Athletic

[Nigel Tufnel]

Mountcastle outside the top-100 is egregious.  Probably a third of the top-100 won't get as much MLB time in their careers as Mountcastle had last year.  Law's take on his ceiling being low due to his limitations is fair, but he's already reached the floor.  There is no downside that he's anything less than a passable DH.

 

 

Here's his Mountcastle writeup:

 

5. Ryan Mountcastle, OF

Mountcastle’s big-league debut went extremely well, better than I would have forecast, although small-sample-size caveats apply. He’s a big, strong kid who should hit for 25-plus homer power, but his patience and ball-strike recognition have always lagged behind, evident in his walk rates in the minors, which maxed out at 6.1 percent in Double A. He raked in the majors, with more contact than power, and walked nearly 8 percent of the time … but he struggled with breaking stuff and still chased pitches out of the zone at a rate 40 percent above the league average. He can strike out 22 percent of the time and be an adequate regular or excellent fourth outfielder, but he’s not going to post a .398 BABIP going forward.

[Mackus]

I think the evaluation of Mountcastle is fair, just the idea that he's not one of the top-100 guys (if eligible, which IMO he shouldn't be) is ludicrous considering what he's already done and how likely it is that a quarter or maybe even half of the top-100 guys won't ever do even that much.

[BobPhelan]

• Adley
• DL Hall
• Rodriguez
• Kjerstad
• Mountcastle
• Adam Hall
• Gunnar Henderson
• Michael Baumann
• Jahmai Jones
• Dean Kremer
• Yusnial Diaz
• Zac Lowther
• Keegan Akin
• Kevin Smith
• Jordan Westberg
• Terrin Vavra
• Tyler Nevin
• Hudson Haskin
• Ryan McKenna
• Kyle Bradish

Others of Note: Alex Wells, Coby Mayo, Isaac Matson, Carter Baumler, Rylan Bannon

2021 Impact: Mountcastle, Kremer, Akin to start the season, with Matson, Baumann, and Lowther appearing later

Sleeper: Nevin

Orioles 2021 prospect rankings: Keith Law on Baltimore’s top 20 – The Athletic

Hall and Jones that high is insane to me (and I’m a Hall fan).

[JeremyStrain]

I think the evaluation of Mountcastle is fair, just the idea that he's not one of the top-100 guys (if eligible, which IMO he shouldn't be) is ludicrous considering what he's already done and how likely it is that a quarter or maybe even half of the top-100 guys won't ever do even that much.

I think one of the things I've noticed about him over the years is that he doesn't change his mind easily. So if he's high on someone early, he will stay high on them longer than others would (Hall) and if he's not as high on someone, he'll tend to be harsher on them when they start moving up lists. I don't know if he's just big on holding his ground, or it's a stubborn bias thing. But it's his list and his opinion so he's entitled to it however he wants.

 

I disagree with chunks of it, just like you do on this, but at the end of the day with prospect lists it's hard to say they can't feel a certain way even if it's against popular opinion.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Hall and Jones that high is insane to me (and I’m a Hall fan).

I assume you mean Adam Hall but for me Rodriguez is easily #2 ahead of DL.

[Mike B]

I think it is pretty clear that Law struggles to say much good about the Orioles, which is fine because at times I do too.  What bothers me, is at times he seems to go out of his way to run down the organization.  Frankly, I don't think he is very good and don't pay much attention to him.  It seems strange that while other, more accomplished writers, and sites have the Orioles solidly in the top 10, they barely make the top 20 in his.  Time will tell who is right, but for now, I will try to ignore him and his views.  

[BobPhelan]

I assume you mean Adam Hall but for me Rodriguez is easily #2 ahead of DL.

 

Yeah I meant Adam Hall. I know Law likes him but goodness.

[BobPhelan]

ESPN/Kiley McDaniel:

 

2. Adley Rutschman

30. Grayson Rodriguez

93. Ryan Mountcastle

97. DL Hall

 

https://www.espn.com...-prospects-2021

[JeremyStrain]

Starting to feel like the O's have the most volatile list of prospects ever. Adley at the top, DUH, but there's been so much up and down in guys like DH Hall, Mountcastle, Kjersted, even Rodriguez a little bit.

 

It's either a bi-product of this past year being washed, or people are getting bi-polar when it comes to prospects.

[dude]

My issue is that system ranking is relative to other teams.  If you don't like the Orioles because you don't like the Orioles, ok, but you have to make arguments for 17 other teams that are better.

 

Here's MLB Pipeline Top100 by team. Honestly there are some really weak systems out there.

 

MLB Pipeline has the A's with 0 guys.  The Astros with 1 (and he's been terrible).  Nationals, 1. Rockies, 1. The Yankees have 2 with IFA Dominguez being a half decade out at 32. Phillies 2 and one was disappointing last year. Brewers, no. Cards, no.  red Sox, no. Cubs, hell no.  I like some of the Dodgers guys, but they may not have a kid in the top 50 right now.

 

If you like the Rays or Jays or Mariners systems, I get that.  If you like the Tigers with Torkleson, ok.

 

I think anywhere from 7-11 is reasonable and you make an argument for teams that bump ahead or whatever.  18 is stupid.  I can give you 15 teams that would trade their entire MiL system for Rutschman and GRod.

[dude]

fwiw, I think Elias is intent on having the #1 system.....but the system is going to thin out this year some with guys like Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer losing status for sure and then some combination of Diaz, Baumann, Lowther, maybe Kevin Smith, Wells, McKenna and Nevin, JJones, Bannon all possibly breaking their rookie limits.  Most of those guys aren't a huge deal, but it will still thin the top30 a lot....maybe enough for the Orioles to slide back a little, depending on what they do at 1-5.

 

...but after Adley, GRod and Hall debut (break status), the Orioles will likely have no shot at climbing to #1....so they need them to maintain status until they get to #1.

[Mackus]

dude why are you so convinced that Elias wants to have the #1 graded system as a primary goal?  I agree that in a nebulous way that's what he wants, to build a great farm system, but you lose me when you say he's going to manipulate arrivals not just for service time reasons but for the sole reason of obtaining that ranking from Baseball America or whatever other publication.

[dude]

My guess would be that he knows he's probably not here long-term.  I'd suggest we've already seen (going back to 2019) a series of things that have happened that would indicate he understands that.  He's going to fight for his space, that's fine.  So he's going to do everything he can for his career with this opportunity.

 

He doesn't have to win a WS in Baltimore to get a Lifetime bullet for the top of his resume.  If (I'll say when, I think it happens) he gets it, it will serve him tremendously throughout his professional baseball career....like the next 30+ years.  It will be etched in stone.  There's no risk in it's accomplishment.  It's a much more direct path to a permanent success metric than actually winning.

 

I wouldn't use the word manipulation.  There's many people here who are excited to get top prospects to Baltimore.  I would use words like deliberate and intentional. You and I have discussed several guys that have stayed on prospect lists by a handful of ABs or IP.  I don't think it's an accident.

 

You have to have prospect longevity on these lists to keep rising.  Graduation isn't your friend.  Build perception.  Add.  Don't subtract.  You will get there.  You need guys with some reasonable success (Hjerstad, Henderson, Westburg need to meet expectations) to keep moving up with people graduating around them.

 

I think it's possible to accomplish it by the end of this year, heading into 2022.  I think heading into 2023 would be the most significant opportunity.  If not then, you probably can't get there.

 

If you think I mean he's selfish, I don't think that's the way anyone would consider it.  Nobody thinks having the #1 system is a bad thing.  There's credibility for the Organization, many people think it's exciting. Many argue that's the future of winning (ie Championships), so building the #1 system can be perceived as a very 'team' thing, regardless of it's impact on his personal career.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Tom C: The team hate accusations have been hilarious as usual. Take the Orioles fans – I looked it up, the team has made the playoffs 3 times this century. They have 6 total winning seasons. What have they been so happy about that they get mad because your assessment doesn’t match other reviews?

Keith Law: Also, the expectation that a team that has completely ignored international scouting – you know, where the best player in the NL came from, where the #1 and #3 prospects on my top 100 came from as well as the guys at 16 and 19 and 20 and 24 and 25 and 25 – for a decade, and that has zero international prospects of their own signing in their top 20, would have a top ten system is delusional

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Its a huge circle. Law is thin skinned and likes to take swipes and trolls to lash out. Then when he gets the heat for trolling he doesnt have the skin thick enough to not start the circle over again. Been that way for years.