574 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

Is it supposed to be a real probability or is it scaled relative to other draft-eligible players?

[StephenCLoftus]

The model is trained on drafted players.

[Mackus]

But the model isn't actually saying that any player has a 99% chance of reaching the majors and that all the top 30 guys are in the 80%+ range, right?

[StephenCLoftus]

Yes, the model is ultimately saying that given past historical drafted player inputs and the results of their careers, that the player has a 99% predicted chance of reaching the majors.

[Mackus]

I think that guys aren't nearly that likely to reach the majors. 

 

At the very top it's fairly close, but 4 #1s (Aiken, Appel, Brien Taylor, and 1966 overall #1) and 4 #2s by my count have failed to reach  excluding some more recent picks that haven't had a full chance yet.  So that's like 92% likely based historically depending on exactly what years you're counting.  And that's top two overall.  It plummets after that.  8 #3 picks never reached the majors.  8 #4 picks.  17 #5 picks.  11 #6.  13 #7 picks.  17 #8 picks.  17 #9 picks.  6 #10 picks.  I haven't pulled the data in a while so it's possible a couple of those guys ended up reaching.  But top-10 overall picks reach the majors about 80% of the time.  23 #15s have failed.  19 #20s, 19 #25s.  By the end of the first round it's down to about 60-65% likely.

 

And all these numbers are simply for reaching the majors.  The number of guys who get a cup of coffee but do next to nothing (<1 career WAR) is really high.  Nearly half of the top-10 and nearly 60% of the entire first round accrues under 1 WAR. 

 

The early years of the draft things were definitely worse than more recently.  So entirely possible that the numbers climb up if you don't look back quite as far.  Which is a fair approach, IMO, although that doesn't change the overall point too dramatically.  I still think that the probabilities in your model (over 90% for the top-30 combined) seem significantly too high if real-world accuracy is an objective.  Though again if they are all self-consistent, then it doesn't really matter.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: How Will Teams Approach This Year's Draft?

[StephenCLoftus]

So, the model is going to fit the average well (The average probability from the scores is around 43%, and the percentage of players ranked in BAs Top 200 from 2009-2015, were signed, and who have made the majors is ~44%). Individual subsets may be "off," even important subsets. The model ultimately decided that to maximize the statistical likelihoods, the best choice was to predict higher probabilities for high-ranked players and virtually 0 probabilities for low-ranked players (Even if ~5% of those players historically make the majors). When interpreting my results, if you want to take off 10% from the top guys and add 5% to the bottom guys, feel free. The DRAFT Model just provides a guide, and how much you want to use that guide is up to you.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Here's Keith Law's top 30, fwiw.

 

2021 MLB draft prospect rankings: Vanderbilt's Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker top Keith Law's list – The Athletic

[Mike B]

Here's Keith Law's top 30, fwiw.

 

2021 MLB draft prospect rankings: Vanderbilt's Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker top Keith Law's list – The Athletic

4 of the top 7 are pitchers.  I wonder if the Orioles under Elias, are ready to take a pitcher on the first pick.

 

Maybe we can take Gunnar Hoglund and be the only team with 2 Gunnar's

[Nigel Tufnel]

MLB also moved the draft out of Georgia.

[StephenCLoftus]

BSL: Players Are Moving
https://baltimorespo...ers-are-moving/

[BobPhelan]

Would love it if Jaden Hill fell to our second pick.

[Mackus]

Large movement, which is absolutely typical, highlights how volatile last year's draft will be. There is simply no way to know what the order would've looked like had we had a real season.

I'll be interested in tracking that draft class later. If that class looks just like the others in terms of relative correlation between draft order and future production, then I think it would indicate that the spring pre-draft is overvalued by evaluators. Only one year though, so hard to draw too many conclusion, plus there were other factors like the shortened draft and reduced bonuses put in place by MLB which made that draft unlike others.

[NickStevens]

Not one, but two MAC pitchers highlighted here which is awesome! Bachman is a real sleeper who has been impacted heavily by an injury that kept him out almost a month and Joe Rock has been a big riser this year. It's a shame there's not a bigger opportunity for kids like these two to showcase their stuff to a wider audience. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Think Id like to have one of Lawler, Rocker, Leiter, or Mayer. After that Im not sure. Think Id lean college arm.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Davis is intriguing as well but Im not sure what we'd do with Adley already penciled in.

[Mackus]

Picking where we are I'm definitely intrigued by the approach of going underslot so we can go over slot later. After the top couple guys it's nearly impossible to accurately distinguish between the next 5 or 10 guys. If you don't think the best guy in the draft is still available at 5, then pick which one of the rest agrees to sign for the least and spend the savings later on.

[BobPhelan]

Think Id like to have one of Lawler, Rocker, Leiter, or Mayer. After that Im not sure. Think Id lean college arm.

I think I agree but I don’t see Elias going pitcher that high in the draft unless he thinks it’s a truly special arm.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think I agree but I don’t see Elias going pitcher that high in the draft unless he thinks it’s a truly special arm.

I tend to agree. Interesting position to be in and I suspect he'll go underslot again at 5.

[dude]

Would love it if Jaden Hill fell to our second pick.

 

If we're rounding, there's a 0% chance that the Orioles take a pitcher at 1-5.

 

I don't really care about that in any direction.  I get why they're scared off, whatever.

 

That said, I wound up watching Leiter and Hill the other night and I was not impressed with Hill at all.  I wouldn't draft him.