1729 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

You're way off base here. You're acting like Lebron is 5+ years younger. Those picks may never become high picks, but they have legit potential, especially when you consider the pick deferments and swaps involved.

The odds are they won't...and the 14th and 19th or 22nd for this year are worth way more.

 

That's the gamble you take with future picks.

 

if they end up being worth a lot its because the ownership/management blows and you have no hope anyway.

[mweb08]

Moving the discussion to just Kyrie.... I'm pretty meh on him, you?

Respect that he's a great 1x1 player, with strong offensive ability.... but don't think he plays much D, don't think he's a leader, and seems like a poor teammate.

Understand he's regarded as a significantly better talent than Russell, but I'm a bit surprised that Nets are so eager to move from Russell for him. Russell AS in his own right, younger, and the Nets seemed to have developed a good chemistry. A chemistry which will change (even if not for the worse, will change with a new dynamic) with Kyrie.

I think there is some concern that what Russell did was a little flukey.

I have some of the same concerns regarding Kyrie, plus durability concerns. However, he's a great player and would be ideal in a role more similar to what he used to be in with the Cavs if he's willing to do that.

[mweb08]

The odds are they won't...and the 14th and 19th or 22nd for this year are worth way more.

That's the gamble you take with future picks.

if they end up being worth a lot its because the ownership/management blows and you have no hope anyway.

They can end up worth a lot because LeBron is old and all that they gave up limits their ability to add talent around he and Davis now and going forward. They can also bre worth a lot if LeBron and/or Davis have injury issues. Plus, Lebron will probably be gone or far from a star by the end of this pick run and Davis could have moved on by then himself.

Those picks are vastly more valuable than Boston's picks for this year. I can't even believe there's pushback to that.

[SportsGuy]

They can end up worth a lot because LeBron is old and all that they gave up limits their ability to add talent around he and Davis now and going forward. They can also bre worth a lot if LeBron and/or Davis have injury issues. Plus, Lebron will probably be gone or far from a star by the end of this pick run and Davis could have moved on by then himself.

Those picks are vastly more valuable than Boston's picks for this year. I can't even believe there's pushback to that.

In the NFL, current picks are always worth more than future picks and its usually by at least a round.  (IE, you would have traded a 2020 second rounder for a 2019 third rounder). I doubt the NBA looks at things differently.

 

Sure, those picks could be high but the likelihood is that they won't be.  They are complete lottery tickets.  You don't even worry about those picks in this deal if you are LA.

 

The Celtics picks give you right now assets.

[mweb08]

In the NFL, current picks are always worth more than future picks and its usually by at least a round. (IE, you would have traded a 2020 second rounder for a 2019 third rounder). I doubt the NBA looks at things differently.

Sure, those picks could be high but the likelihood is that they won't be. They are complete lottery tickets. You don't even worry about those picks in this deal if you are LA.

The Celtics picks give you right now assets.

Well that's not the prevailing thought process in the NBA, especially when we are talking about either getting a top 8 pick in 2021, or that being deferred to the next year, which is expected to be the first year of high school kids being allowed in the draft again, and will be the first of four consecutive years of a chance at unprotected Lakers picks through either having the pick, being able to swap picks, or defer it. I would say that the likelihood is that they get at least one top 10 pick and there is a very real possibility of the Lakers being pretty bad by the end of this.

Those Celtics picks aren't that valuable in this draft.

[SportsGuy]

Well the Lakers picks won’t be that valuable either imo.

And even if they turn out to, trading them now is meaningless and you do this deal every single time to land a player like AD.

And I would like to see that the NBA doesn’t view picks like the NFL.

[mweb08]

Well the Lakers picks won’t be that valuable either imo.

And even if they turn out to, trading them now is meaningless and you do this deal every single time to land a player like AD.

And I would like to see that the NBA doesn’t view picks like the NFL.

The picks have solid potential.

Sure, ultimately you give up the picks to get him, but obviously I think they could have gotten away with giving up less.

NBA teams tend to have more defined windows for rebuilding or competing than NFL teams, which can change how they view the timing of picks. They also have less room for guys on the roster and in terms of who they can get out on the court.

Lastly, mid first round picks are much less valuable in the NBA compared to in the NFL. Conversely, the allure of potential really high picks is greater in the NBA.

[SportsGuy]

But the Celtics 2019 mid first round picks are worth more than 2023/2025 mid to late firsts of the Lakers.

[mweb08]

But the Celtics 2019 mid first round picks are worth more than 2023/2025 mid to late firsts of the Lakers.

Except we don't know if they'll be mid to late first picks. Again, you're acting like LeBron is young.

[mweb08]

Another thing is future picks are more of trade assets in the NBA than in the NFL because there's a lot more trades (other than deals only involving picks) and because there's a lot fewer picks.

[SportsGuy]

Except we don't know if they'll be mid to late first picks. Again, you're acting like LeBron is young.

No, I’m acting like the Lakers will be able to build a team around AD, with or without LeBron.

The first of the 3 picks should be at or near the bottom. The 2023 pick should be low too.

The one pick that could really pay off is the 2024/2025 pick. I agree that has a CHANCE but not enough of a chance to care, be upset about the deal or not make the deal at all.

But if Boston was giving up multiple picks now plus the Memphis pick (which obviously is more likely to be a high pick than anything the Lakers gave up), I think that’s better than any of the “other assets” in this deal. That Memphis pick being on the table or not is huge.

[SportsGuy]

Another thing is future picks are more of trade assets in the NBA than in the NFL because there's a lot more trades (other than deals only involving picks) and because there's a lot fewer picks.

It’s all relative...fewer picks but far less players on a roster.

[mweb08]

No, I’m acting like the Lakers will be able to build a team around AD, with or without LeBron.

The first of the 3 picks should be at or near the bottom. The 2023 pick should be low too.

The one pick that could really pay off is the 2024/2025 pick. I agree that has a CHANCE but not enough of a chance to care, be upset about the deal or not make the deal at all.

But if Boston was giving up multiple picks now plus the Memphis pick (which obviously is more likely to be a high pick than anything the Lakers gave up), I think that’s better than any of the “other assets” in this deal. That Memphis pick being on the table or not is huge.

Well we strongly disagree about the 2021-2025 outlook for a Lakers team that won't have much cap space until Lebron leaves, will lack draft picks, and hasn't shown much competence as an organization since Jim Buss died.

[SportsGuy]

Well we strongly disagree about the 2021-2025 outlook for a Lakers team that won't have much cap space until Lebron leaves, will lack draft picks, and hasn't shown much competence as an organization since Jim Buss died.

Which is exactly why you make this deal.

You secure the second best (healthy) player that is available this offseason and pair him with LeBron and Kuzma.

You try to win a title or 2 before LBJ leaves and re-establish the brand that has been lost for a while.

Once LBJ is gone, you still have AD and see where Kuzma is and see what else you can build around them.

The only way this doesn’t become a good deal for the Lakers is if they don’t win at least one title.

[mweb08]

Which is exactly why you make this deal.

You secure the second best (healthy) player that is available this offseason and pair him with LeBron and Kuzma.

You try to win a title or 2 before LBJ leaves and re-establish the brand that has been lost for a while.

Once LBJ is gone, you still have AD and see where Kuzma is and see what else you can build around them.

The only way this doesn’t become a good deal for the Lakers is if they don’t win at least one title.

That's cool.

[mweb08]

That's cool.

To be clear, I mostly agree with Rob's post. I'm guessing the like I got on that post may have come from a different interpretation.

[JordanKough]

To be clear, I mostly agree with Rob's post. I'm guessing the like I got on that post may have come from a different interpretation.

 

It was more that Rob has written about 15,000 words on this compared to your maybe 1,000 in your posts. This post was a good articulation of that. I feel like usually posters like me and you are more often writing the longer posts and Rob is writing the shorter ones. I found some humor in that, hence the like.

 

I think the interesting part of the scenario not discussed here is who really had the leverage? In some sense, the Lakers really did have the leverage. They've got the high pick and a bunch of assets. They had the best and most willingly aggressive package. No bidding war had seemed to come to fruition. The risk was they took a guy NOP didn't want with #4. Perhaps they weren't confident they could leverage that into what they really wanted or they were worried that eventually NOP gets spooked by the trade. Maybe they were spooked the league agreed with Rob's assessment of the picks. 

 

But ultimately, they were better served to wait, IMO. You should only be scared of a bidding war if you aren't ever willing to give up it all to get a guy. And I think the Lakers were willing to do that. But they are so much better off doing this trade after July 30 so they kind of lost on both sides of the coin here. Maybe make the fully loaded offer with the July 30 contingent and see (and maybe they did that)...

 

I think the Lakers blinked first. And I don't think you can ever say if they gave up too much or not (which is kind of what Rob is saying, so I guess I actually agree with him if that's what he's trying to say...but for me maybe more in the sense that you can just never know).

[JordanKough]

Given that I live in LA, I also really want Kwahi to come to the Clippers now. That'd make for a fun NBA season next year here in LA. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

Given that I live in LA, I also really want Kwahi to come to the Clippers now. That'd make for a fun NBA season next year here in LA. 

Saw Kellerman guarantee the Clippers win the title next year if Kwahi joins them. 

[mweb08]

Fair enough jkough.

And yeah, of course we don't and likely won't know if they gave up too much for sure. I think it's highly likely that they did based on the evidence, and I think the evidence is overwhelming, but we don't know everything, nor will we as mentioned.