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Adley Rutschman


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#741 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 29 August 2024 - 11:27 AM

Trade....while he still has value...get some SP


There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

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#742 Mackus

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Posted 29 August 2024 - 11:28 AM

Because it appears that catching is wearing on him and he hits much better as a DH this year...way better. I would hope that catching just half the time or a little less would improve his hitting and catching.

I put little stock into those splits. Can't deny they are the numbers this year, but I think it's flukey timing rather than particularly causal. I'd expect some slight improvement at DH because of the less wear, but not the extent we've seen this year with only a 650 OPS behind the plate. Last year he was 785 and 795 in '22. Similar to how his L/R splits are noisy rather than consistent, there is gonna be fluctuation based on random timing more than an actual influence on his skill.

If you think this year's production is his true talent level moving forward, then of course you don't sign him.

#743 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 29 August 2024 - 11:31 AM

I dont think his finish changes his value much but agree with Mack that you at least reach out and see if he is interested in some more security. He is not being traded. Lets all be realistic here

#744 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 29 August 2024 - 11:32 AM

Better and more highly touted players than Neo Wieters have been traded.

 

If they're convinced Bassillo can be the every day catcher why wouldn't you field offers.

 

Teams might be dumb enough to basically stock pile the majority of our starting rotation for him.


There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#745 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 29 August 2024 - 11:40 AM

You dont reject calls. You listen to everything. Realistically hes not going anywhere. The Os wont be out there shopping him thats for sure. Basallo isnt ready to C. He may not be a C period. Apparently he does nothing well defensively besides throw.

#746 BobPhelan

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Posted 29 August 2024 - 07:21 PM

You dont reject calls. You listen to everything. Realistically hes not going anywhere. The Os wont be out there shopping him thats for sure. Basallo isnt ready to C. He may not be a C period. Apparently he does nothing well defensively besides throw.

 

He's improving but he's nowhere near ready to be the main catcher on a team. Great defense at first base already though.



#747 dude

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Posted 29 August 2024 - 09:30 PM

I dont think his finish changes his value much but agree with Mack that you at least reach out and see if he is interested in some more security. He is not being traded. Lets all be realistic here

 

Funny.  Weren't you trying to pan this thought like 10 days ago?



#748 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 29 August 2024 - 09:38 PM

Funny.  Weren't you trying to pan this thought like 10 days ago?

His value isnt changing but you can call and make sure he and his agent arent panicking about his finish to the year. Its not 100% he wont takes less than he would have 3 months ago. Just 95%. 



#749 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 29 August 2024 - 09:40 PM

So what kind of extension would you guys go for now? It would have to he very team friendly for me.

#750 NewMarketSean

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Posted 30 August 2024 - 01:01 AM

I wouldn’t extend him at all.

Play out the rookie deal and trade him in the last year of it.

However I’d move him to 1B next spring and see how he does there. I don’t care what the league numbers are throwing out runners he sucks back there. And his offensive numbers are better when he’s not catching.
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#751 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 30 August 2024 - 06:53 AM

You can’t play him at 1B. His value comes from being a catcher.

I’m so sick of this. It’s Wieters all over again. Nightmare.

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#752 Mackus

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Posted 30 August 2024 - 07:26 AM


So what kind of extension would you guys go for now? It would have to he very team friendly for me.


I'd push for 3-4 FA years and look to pay a bit under $25M or so annually for the FA years (less for ARB years obviously). Realmuto gets about $23M a year. Will Smith is a tough comp because he earns less annually but has a lot of years on the back end that he'll likely never see, prorate it out and he's over $20M. I'd like to sign Adley through about Age 33, which I'd have dreamed impossible before these rough couple months, and likely still is, but maybe we have a shot now.
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#753 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 30 August 2024 - 07:49 AM

I would have an incredibly tough time paying Adley $25M/yr.

#754 makoman

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Posted 30 August 2024 - 07:50 AM

His OPS+ is still higher than Wieters’ best full year.

If you think his second half is is true talent you obviously don’t extend and you try to trade him, but you have to dismiss the prior 6 years. I think he’s probably banged up and will quietly have some kind of minor surgery in the offseason, or just plain old rest, and be fine next year. I’d do the Mackus deal, doubt Adley would.

#755 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 30 August 2024 - 07:52 AM

Adley would be a fool not to take $25M/yr right now.

#756 Mackus

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Posted 30 August 2024 - 08:00 AM

I would have an incredibly tough time paying Adley $25M/yr.

 

I think that's because you're stuck on thinking about the last two months and not the two years (and his entire minor league and amateur career) that preceded it.  

 

Zero chance he'd had accepted $25M a year in May.  I still think its close to zero.  



#757 makoman

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Posted 30 August 2024 - 08:16 AM

On June 29 he had a 831 OPS after 353 PAs. 136 wRC+. Any catcher doing that is worth well over 25M. Since then he has a 556 OPS in 181 PAs. Not sure why the first 2/3 are invalid and the latter 1/3 are seemingly the truth, but the first 2/3 is more like the rest of his career so that's what I'd hope for. And it's not like we're talking 10/250M right now, we're talking a couple FA years at 25M.
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#758 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 30 August 2024 - 08:16 AM

I think that's because you're stuck on thinking about the last two months and not the two years (and his entire minor league and amateur career) that preceded it.

Zero chance he'd had accepted $25M a year in May. I still think its close to zero.


Probably so. But for me the handwriting is on the wall. He's not long for being behind the plate.

#759 Mackus

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Posted 30 August 2024 - 08:21 AM

Probably so. But for me the handwriting is on the wall. He's not long for being behind the plate.

 

 

If you think he's this bad then you have to trade him.  You and Pedro both have to trade him.  You can't keep him with what his value is around the league if you actually think he's a 725 OPS first baseman within a year.  I have a hard time accepting that take on Adley, but if that's the opinion then you cash him in for whatever the best offer you can get is and go try to find another catcher (or hope on Basallo at some point next year).

 

The only thing at all that worries me about him is the low walk-rate this year.  Even when he was hitting really well through the season's first half, he was walking a lot less.  I think that was an intentional decision in his approach.  I would prefer he do what he'd done previously and walk a ton even if it means a bit less pop.  We'll see next year what his approach looks like.  I have no concerns about his defense, I think he'll continue to be a capable to average defensive catcher for the next half decade at least.


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#760 Mackus

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Posted 30 August 2024 - 08:24 AM

He had an atrocious July, sub-500 OPS.  If that hadn't happened, then his bad August (650 OPS) would be barely noticeable.  Like his June in 2023 where he had a similar month but still a terrific season.  Almost nobody is so consistent that they have a similar OPS every month of the year, but catchers in particular I'd imagine are even more volatile as they have to deal with various nicks and dings that other players don't.


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