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O's sign Tsuyoshi Wada: Commentary from around the Web


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 December 2011 - 05:50 PM

FanGrahps: http://www.fangraphs...-tsuyoshi-wada/

Baltimore Sun / Orioles Insider: http://www.baltimore...,0,946116.story

MASN / Kubatko: http://www.masnsport...d-bergesen.html

#2 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 14 December 2011 - 12:12 PM

Well fro the Fan Graphs article, there's this:

All of this paints a picture of a guy without a great deal of stuff. Patrick Newman felt something similar: “He’s a bit of a nibbler.”

And you have to add in some questions about durability. The 5’10″, 170-pound Wada has had cartilage surgery on his left elbow and missed half of 2009 with issues in the same joint, and never went far into games to begin with. In 2010, he averaged about six and a half innings per start, and last year, that number was just above seven. If he’s going to be a starter in the American League, he might not last six innings most days, a sentiment Newman agreed with.


And then there's this:

For one, some of these faults may not be as bad as they seem. Even after he missed time in 2009 with his elbow problems, he came back to put up one of the best seasons of his career in 2010. And even though he’s older, he’s also managed to keep his pitch counts down. His lower innings totals can be seen as a sign that he’s not ready for 200 innings, or they can be seen as a sign that he doesn’t have as many miles on his arm.

Also, Wada is known to be a ‘student of the game’ type. He studies scouting reports before every game and perhaps that has helped him cut his home runs every year in the league (down to 11 in 2010 from 26 in his rookie year according to Randy Fuller on NPBTracker).


I guess we'll see how this turns out, but at $8MM, I don't see this as a bad risk at all. Especially given the credibility this helps to create with the O's and their international presence.

#3 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 14 December 2011 - 05:03 PM

Camden Crazies: http://www.camdencra...yoshi-wada.html

#4 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 04:15 PM

Watching the introduction on MASN. Duquette compares Wada physically to Tippy Martinez, and in-style to McGregor.

I'm interested to see him. There will be a major transition to the AL East and MLB, (Increased travel, less domes, a jump in talent etc.) and his individual skill set might have troubles. Overall though, I like the addition. The O's name gets further name recognition in Japan, the O's add a starter who has had professional success, and most importantly the organization shows a further willingness to look everywhere for talent.

While I will always be biased to a guy who has great overpowering stuff, I respect a guy that actually knows how to pitch. Uehara was as fun to watch for me as any pitcher anywhere the last couple of years.

#5 PD24

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 06:57 PM

This is a successful signing because it doesn't cost much and it opens the Japanese doors even wider for the O's. Koji was just a one time thing. With Wada, it's becoming a trend. This is how teams other than the Yankees and Red Sox have to build their organizations...by taking full advantage of every single avenue out there to acquire talent. Duquette realizes that.

When all is said and done though, Wada isn't going to help the O's contend. There's a reason he only got $8 million over 2 years. The O's are going to be bad again in 2012 unless the young pitchers step up, and if they do, they won't need Wada.

I'm hoping we look back on this in 2014 and say that Wada was an average pitcher who led the way to better Japanese players coming to Baltimore in 2013 and 2014.
@PeterDiLutis

#6 SportsGuy

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 07:40 PM

This is a successful signing because it doesn't cost much and it opens the Japanese doors even wider for the O's. Koji was just a one time thing. With Wada, it's becoming a trend. This is how teams other than the Yankees and Red Sox have to build their organizations...by taking full advantage of every single avenue out there to acquire talent. Duquette realizes that.

When all is said and done though, Wada isn't going to help the O's contend. There's a reason he only got $8 million over 2 years. The O's are going to be bad again in 2012 unless the young pitchers step up, and if they do, they won't need Wada.

I'm hoping we look back on this in 2014 and say that Wada was an average pitcher who led the way to better Japanese players coming to Baltimore in 2013 and 2014.

I don't think its really going to open more doors. Money is what opens up those doors. Yes, Wada could tell other Japanese players that we treated him right, etc....

But at the end of the day, its all about money.

I would guess that, much like Koji, the Orioles told him that he could start here(or at least give him the oppurtunity) and that sealed the deal.

#7 JeremyStrain

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 09:26 PM

I see him a lot like Koji, and that is probably the role they have him pegged for right now. Stuff isn't really good, but he's got good control. Chen is better and would bump Wada from any rotation spot I think.

This does legitimize the international scene a bit though, and the extra ML depth will help making other moves that should improve the team. Worst case is he can have a great year and we can deal him for a piece that might really help down the road.
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#8 PD24

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 09:29 PM

I think it helps open the doors. Just gives people more reason to wear O's hats in Japan.

I was at the press conference today....At least 8 Japanese media members were there. Just buzz that is generated over there. That can only be a positive.

BTW...Wada is going to start no matter what. He's not just getting a chance. He's in the rotation and is pretty much viewed as the 2nd best starter at this point.
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#9 JeremyStrain

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 10:29 PM

I think it helps open the doors. Just gives people more reason to wear O's hats in Japan.

I was at the press conference today....At least 8 Japanese media members were there. Just buzz that is generated over there. That can only be a positive.

BTW...Wada is going to start no matter what. He's not just getting a chance. He's in the rotation and is pretty much viewed as the 2nd best starter at this point.


Haha, ok, go with that. Wait til you actually see him pitch. After a couple turns through the order he's going to get ROCKED. His biggest advantages will be control and his delivery, if he goes more than 4-5IP he'll get lit up. You'll see ;)
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#10 SportsGuy

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 10:33 PM

I think it helps open the doors. Just gives people more reason to wear O's hats in Japan.

I was at the press conference today....At least 8 Japanese media members were there. Just buzz that is generated over there. That can only be a positive.

BTW...Wada is going to start no matter what. He's not just getting a chance. He's in the rotation and is pretty much viewed as the 2nd best starter at this point.


Haha, ok, go with that. Wait til you actually see him pitch. After a couple turns through the order he's going to get ROCKED. His biggest advantages will be control and his delivery, if he goes more than 4-5IP he'll get lit up. You'll see ;)

Yea, that's going to be the issue.

Koji didn't throw hard but his command and control were great and he had/has a legit out pitch. He misses bats at a great rate.

Will Wada be able to do that? He has always shown good control and I assume command but will his stuff be good enough to miss bats? If not, can he change speeds enough and have so much command that he is the asian Jamie Moyer? Because if not, he will be in the pen quickly.

#11 PD24

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 10:51 PM

I'm just saying to start the season, there is no question that Wada is in the rotation.
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#12 JeremyStrain

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 11:38 PM

I'm just saying to start the season, there is no question that Wada is in the rotation.


Yeah, they'll probably give him a spot, I'm sure there is some handshake agreement.

I just wouldn't be shocked to see him get batted around in ST and him go to the pen. Put it this way, Chen is much better than he is, and I have my doubts if Chen could be a 5th starter.
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#13 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 23 December 2011 - 09:55 AM

Camden Crazies: Projecting Tsuyoshi Wada
http://www.camdencra...yoshi-wada.html

Strong statistical anlaysis from Dan, getting to the the same conclusion I have. That Wada has a chance to be a productive / league average back of the rotation starter.

#14 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 04 January 2012 - 10:43 AM

Buying or Selling the Camden Crazies projection?

Year IP HR BB K "FIP"
2012 147 20 55 111 4.5

#15 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 03:40 PM

Since the Chen signing, there seems to be discussion by some that Wada might not start the year in the rotation. Based on Wada's public comments, it seems clear that part of the reason he signed here was a promised opportunity to start. I think you have to expect him to be in the rotation to begin the year.

#16 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 24 January 2012 - 04:51 PM

Buying or Selling the Camden Crazies projection?

Year IP HR BB K "FIP"
2012 147 20 55 111 4.5


Never got feed-back here. What do you think?

#17 RVAbird

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Posted 25 January 2012 - 12:04 PM

Buying or Selling the Camden Crazies projection?

Year IP HR BB K "FIP"
2012 147 20 55 111 4.5


Never got feed-back here. What do you think?


I'll buy it with a couple of large caveats:

1) I think the projection is a decent 50% mark given the data we have, but the fact that we're attempting translation from 33 players who've made the jump means there's a pretty huge margin of error. Think about how much trouble the best translation and projection systems have with rookies coming from MiL, a translation type that we have thousands of data points to source from. I applaud the work, but the uncertainty stands out more than the projection IMO.

2) I think Wada could post a serviceable 'back-end ERA' if he were limited to 4-5 inning starts. I think as he gets pushed into the mid-to-late innings ML hitters will track his junk and hit him hard. My guess is that he'd either frequently exit early and maybe throw 140-150 IP over 30 starts or be pushed beyond his limit and see his ERA inflate over 5. Either way, I still think his best spot is in the pen.
@TenthInning

#18 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 25 January 2012 - 12:33 PM

Buying or Selling the Camden Crazies projection?

Year IP HR BB K "FIP"
2012 147 20 55 111 4.5


Never got feed-back here. What do you think?


I'll buy it with a couple of large caveats:

1) I think the projection is a decent 50% mark given the data we have, but the fact that we're attempting translation from 33 players who've made the jump means there's a pretty huge margin of error. Think about how much trouble the best translation and projection systems have with rookies coming from MiL, a translation type that we have thousands of data points to source from. I applaud the work, but the uncertainty stands out more than the projection IMO.

2) I think Wada could post a serviceable 'back-end ERA' if he were limited to 4-5 inning starts. I think as he gets pushed into the mid-to-late innings ML hitters will track his junk and hit him hard. My guess is that he'd either frequently exit early and maybe throw 140-150 IP over 30 starts or be pushed beyond his limit and see his ERA inflate over 5. Either way, I still think his best spot is in the pen.



Yeah, you nailed it. I respect the work Daniel did here, but I basically came to the same conclusion just eyeballing it. As Daniel mentioned, the ball change in '11, appeared to decrease offense across the NPB.

I anticipate a guy with plus control, limited k's, that gives up his share of bombs. I think he will be fun to watch, as someone that likely 'knows how to pitch.' Just figure with that makeup, you have to anticipate (especially in the AL East), seeing his ERA jump somewhere between a run and half, to two runs. That gets you right to what Daniel projected, and a serviceable back-end starter.

Like you, I think he probably would be better in the bullpen. I'm doubt he lasts the year in the rotation, but figure he is more likely to help early on. Cooler weather, ball traveling less. That should help the transition. If he ends up in the bullpen, that means other starters have stayed healthy and productive, or that a spot has been opened for Matusz. In both cases that should be a win.

Also agree with your point that after 4 or 5 innings, he will likely hit a wall that 3rd time through the lineup. That to me is further incentive to have guys in the bullpen that are capable of going multiple innings vs. going with someone like Rapada with an available spot.




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