395 replies to this topic

[BaltBird 24]

I’d almost never like the idea of drafting a catcher with the number one overall.

[SportsGuy]

I really have no interest in taking a C with the first pick

[JTrea81]

Witt was my top choice, but right now after watching video I'd be fine with the Orioles taking Rutschman if he has a junior season as good if not better than his sophomore one.   The kid can really hit - and not just HRs but all over the field.

 

Wieters didn't hit for as good an average in college, and this kid looks like another Buster Posey and he might be better.

 

It will come down to who has the better season, but it's hard to go wrong on either at this point.

 

If the Orioles do pick Rutschman, then they need to protect his bat as much as possible which means giving him time at DH or 1B and not burn him out behind the plate.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Put me down also for no interest in a C for the top pick. 

[SportsGuy]

Witt was my top choice, but right now after watching video I'd be fine with the Orioles taking Rutschman if he has a junior season as good if not better than his sophomore one.   The kid can really hit - and not just HRs but all over the field.

 

Wieters didn't hit for as good an average in college, and this kid looks like another Buster Posey and he might be better.

 

It will come down to who has the better season, but it's hard to go wrong on either at this point.

 

If the Orioles do pick Rutschman, then they need to protect his bat as much as possible which means giving him time at DH or 1B and not burn him out behind the plate.

If you pick him, a big part of that is his (seemingly) elite ability to catch.  You don't take that away and have him at another position.  Sure, you could DH once a week or something like that but he needs to catch 120 games a year.

 

Hate the idea of taking a C #1 though.  No interest there.

[Mackus]

Catcher seems like one of the few positions you should consider at the #1 spot.  SP, SS, CF, and C.  Unless someone else is a massive hitting prospect at a corner OF or corner IF spot, how do you take any other position.

 

Very few picks in the recent past have been anything but one of those spots.  Delmon Young in 2001 was more of a corner OF than CF.  Adrian Gonzalez in 2000 was a 1B.  Pat Burrell in '98 was drafted as a 1B/3B.  Phil Nevin in '92 was a 3B.  Jeff King in '86 was a 3B.  Everyone else was a SS, CF, SP, or C.  Not a ton of catchers taken in that time frame (Mauer, Harper, Surhoff the only ones), but it is a position that gets taken unlike most other spots.

 

If you're talking specifically about the Orioles needs relative to the talent available, I think it's reasonable to say you'd prefer Witt to Rutschman.  But a general rule against drafting a catcher #1 overall is a very unsound rule, IMO.  Most years there is a player who distinguishes himself from everyone else, that should be the #1 pick.  If it's a year without a distinction, then you can go with personal or organizational preferences.  But the career numbers very much bear out that the #1 overall pick is worth far more than the #2 pick, and my theory is that's because there is usually one guy who is so clearly ahead of everyone else.  If that's the case, you take that guy, regardless of what position he plays or where your organizational strengths and weaknesses lie.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Mackus I think you are mostly correct here with a bit of a caveat. I am would not take a player rated #1 if they play a position that you are already stacked at (except of course starting pitching). Certainly you can always trade some pieces away but I'd have a pretty good plan in place if I was to take a guy blocked by multiple players you already have.

 

Probably not the case with either of the two guys we are talking about here.

[Mackus]

Mackus I think you are mostly correct here with a bit of a caveat. I am would not take a player rated #1 if they play a position that you are already stacked at (except of course starting pitching). Certainly you can always trade some pieces away but I'd have a pretty good plan in place if I was to take a guy blocked by multiple players you already have.

 

I'd only consider position and organizational depth as a tie-breaker among a couple similarly rated guys if there isn't a clear cut #1.  If the clear #1 guy is a SS, and I've already got a stud SS, I'm still taking the clear #1 SS over the lower rated #2 player.

 

Lower in the draft, I'd consider position much more strongly as a factor, as the players start bunching up and you inherently will have to break some ties or at least effective ties.  My theory is that there is less of a bunch between the #1 and #2 guy most years.  And history has borne that out in retrospect, there is a massive chasm of expected value between the #1 and #2 picks, larger than the gaps anywhere else even across multiple pick ranges.

[Nigel Tufnel]

It will come down to who has the better season, but it's hard to go wrong on either at this point.

 

I don't think that's how scouting works at all.

[FFH]

Witt was my top choice, but right now after watching video I'd be fine with the Orioles taking Rutschman if he has a junior season as good if not better than his sophomore one.   The kid can really hit - and not just HRs but all over the field.

 

Wieters didn't hit for as good an average in college, and this kid looks like another Buster Posey and he might be better.

 

It will come down to who has the better season, but it's hard to go wrong on either at this point.

 

If the Orioles do pick Rutschman, then they need to protect his bat as much as possible which means giving him time at DH or 1B and not burn him out behind the plate.

 

Definitely not seeing what you are seeing. He has talent, but if he doesn't clean up his swing he is going to miss a lot of pitches in the majors, and even if he succeeds he's going to fall on his face around 30, when his body wears out. 

 

You should probably look at his play in college again.... 

 

Irony with that video is that Buster's swing looks more like Witt's. 

 

Honestly, I'm not sure, at least from what I'm seeing, that there are any superlative talents this year.  

[FFH]

Shea Langeliers

As a side note, this guy looks a little more promising.  He could probably stride more to the ball, but that is a nice, smooth swing, with a good (maybe not great eye).  Noted as a talented gun, he can also play defense.  

 

 

He's number 4 here...

https://www.mlb.com/...aft/c-280269044

[dude]

Well thank goodness the Orioles are focused on the draft because.....they are the only team focused on it? 

Every past Oriole team was focused on the draft as are the other 29 other ML teams.  I don't see the point.

 

While we're arguing for who is the talent separating #1 pick...when Correa signed, he was not considered the top talent in the draft and they while they obviously liked him, they were working on leveraging total draft dollars.

 

Also...how embarrassing is it that they had to update the article to get the CompBal pick layout correct.

 

---------------------

 

If you wanted to focus on the draft in a way that's maybe different (better) than the other 29 teams, then go find ways to add CompBal picks.

 

The pick numbers may change some based on FA signings but you have...

 

CompA

34. Marlins

35. Rays

36. Reds

37. Pirates (compensation for not signing a guy last year.  Tradable?)

38. Athletics

39. Brewers

40. Twins

 

CompB

71. Royals

72. Orioles

73. Pirates

74. Padres

75. DBacks

76. Rockies

77. Indians

78. Cardinals

 

Interestingly...the article from 3 weeks ago on MLBTR cites Mayo suggesting that these CompBal picks can only be traded during the season.  Odd...since we know the Orioles have traded CompBal picks in the offseason previously.  Guess that could have changed in the newer format.

-----------------------------

 

I'd also point out that if you ignore the early pick (just as an exercise), the best team in the league has better draft position than the worst team in the league.  The draft value of losing is one uniquely better pick.  Not the whole draft.  

[BSLChrisStoner]

Orioles.com: O's have inside info on Rutschman for Draft
https://www.mlb.com/...aft/c-302088036

[birdwatcher55]

I read online, don't recall site, where top scouts were wowed by Witt in a recent All-Star game. As I recall, he had hit for the cycle by the sixth inning. One scout noted he had questions about Witt but came away convinced he's the No. 1 pick in the draft.

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman remains atop draft boards
http://www.masnsport...aft-boards.html

 

The Orioles have four of the first 80 picks and six of the top 150. They select No. 1, No. 41, No. 72 (in competitive balance round B), No. 79, No. 109 and No. 139. The slot amount for that No. 1 pick should be in the $8.4 million range. The Orioles will have 11 picks in the top 10 rounds. In recent years, clubs have signed the No. 1 overall pick for under slot and used the savings to sign others to overslot deals.

[birdwatcher55]

Wieters really worked out great. Draft Witt.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Camden Chat: Adley Rutschman is making his case to be the Orioles top draft pick
https://www.camdench...-rutschman-2019

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The article compares him to Weiters and said that he 'had an impressive career in Baltimore"  I guess I have a different definition of impressive especially when it comes from such a high draft pick. Matty was a good catcher and a good Oriole. Impressive? Hardly the term I would use.

[BSLChrisStoner]

The article compares him to Weiters and said that he 'had an impressive career in Baltimore"  I guess I have a different definition of impressive especially when it comes from such a high draft pick. Matty was a good catcher and a good Oriole. Impressive? Hardly the term I would use.

Wieters underachieved given the astronomical expectations that he had placed on him (based on crushing competition below him at the A and AA levels).... but he had a very successful career when you remove those expectations. 

[JeremyStrain]

The expectations around here, thinking he was coming in to be the Bryce Harper of the O's and save the day were always so over the top. I get it at the time we needed hope, and all the eggs went in that basket. It was a high profile guy, a Boras guy, and the legend grew.

 

I'm trying to think of the last real IMPACT Catcher that was like top of the draft boards touted.

Buster Posey was highly thought of, but not like this. Joe Mauer maybe, but different type of player. I dunno. Catchers seem to bust more than other position players because of the weight on both sides of the game I guess, so they always make me nervous. I feel like it's easy to develop a Sisco or Wynns into being a serviceable ML player, and those big chips or guns are better spent more safely on different type of player.

 

Then again I don't even know much about his defensive capabilities, if he'll stick behind the plate, what kind of game calling he does, pitch framing, etc. All you hear about is the bat. If you are drafting him 1.1 and he's going to be a 1B do you still take him? Catchers take a beating and need days off, is that a 1.1 player? Who will have the bigger impact on the team overall, him or someone with a good bat and good defense at another position? There's just a lot to think about at 1.1.