Photo

Bruce Zimmermann


  • Please log in to reply
163 replies to this topic

#61 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,674 posts

Posted 08 April 2021 - 09:42 AM

First, I'd be comfortable suggesting that stickball wasn't a thing for the current generation of 20-something players.

 

...but that doesn't really matter. 

 

More importantly, this is the comment that needs some 'splaining.

 

 

 

I want someone to explain how you do that.  

 

Zimmermann's first start this season is coming at the expense Keegan Akin's opportunity.  Most thought this would be reversed, but apparently Spring Training stats do mean something.

 

Chris requested input on 'power ranking the top 7' pitchers in another thread...it didn't include Means, GRod or Hall.

 

Someone explain the process to how you get to whatever you think the Orioles competitive rotation is.  

 

We aren't going start to start, are we?  If Zimmermann struggles in his next outing, he's out and Loewther gets a start?  He fails and Akin comes back?  5 inning 3 runs, ok, you get another one.  whoops, that one was 4 innings, 5 earned so we're back to Zimmermann?

 

How do we decide "if there is anyone who can stick longer term"? What is the year we expect to know that?

 

Zimmermann's opportunity is not coming at Akin's expense. If Akin goes and shows whatever the O's want to see, he'll earn his way back up. Quickly.  Lopez being the obvious candidate to immediately replace. 

Lowther not Loewther. 

 

When the MiL season begins...  Akin, Lowther, Bauamann, are going to have to go and produce and put themselves into position for promotion when need and opportunity arises.  

Kremer to a larger degree, and Zimmerann to a lesser degree are secure in the rotation right now, and their job is to take advantage of their current opportunity. 

 


I asked how people power ranked that group of 7 starters... so why would it include Means, Rodriguez, and Hall? 
The whole idea is that imo, it's realistic to think that out of those 7 starters (Kremer, Akin, Baumman, Lowther, Zimmermann, Wells, Smith); you end up with 2 starters you like, that can help a rotation at no cost. 

I do agree with you that in-terms of larger evaluation, you can't go start-to-start.  You have to give guys some run for adjustments, dealing with adversity, etc. 



#62 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 60,358 posts

Posted 08 April 2021 - 09:50 AM

I think getting 2 guys that are clearly worth being in a rotation (and not fringey 5/swing types) would be like a 75th percentile result from that group of seven.  I'm not expecting to find two guys amongst those sevevn.  Really they aren't a group of seven, IMO.  I think Kremer, Akin, Baumann are one group and I'd hope to find 1 starter from that trio.  Lowther, Zimmerman, Wells, and Smith are another group and while it's fine to hope for someone amongst them to distinguish and become something, I would not expect any to stick as a SP in the majors.


  • BSLSteveBirrer likes this

#63 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,674 posts

Posted 08 April 2021 - 09:53 AM

I think getting 2 guys that are clearly worth being in a rotation (and not fringey 5/swing types) would be like a 75th percentile result from that group of seven.  I'm not expecting to find two guys amongst those sevevn.  Really they aren't a group of seven, IMO.  I think Kremer, Akin, Baumann are one group and I'd hope to find 1 starter from that trio.  Lowther, Zimmerman, Wells, and Smith are another group and while it's fine to hope for someone amongst them to distinguish and become something, I would not expect any to stick as a SP in the majors.


We've discussed this on The Warehouse several times, most recently last week.

 

https://anchor.fm/th...isode-32-eu4fh3

 

We broke it down pretty much as you have here. 

 

Agree about tiers.  Little higher on Lowther than you are.   These guys have mostly backend rotation upside, with your 1st tier maybe mid-rotation.  

I feel good about finding 2 league average backend starters from this group, and 2 useful relievers.



#64 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,573 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 08 April 2021 - 12:34 PM

I feel good about finding 2 league average backend starters from this group, and 2 useful relievers.

 

Great, so tell me how you get there.  Don't just hand wave it.  You get to make any assumptions about the performance of the individual players.  I'm not even going to judge your assessment because it doesn't matter.  You just have to follow MLB rules and math.

 

You listed 7 guys. For the exercise you certainly need to include Means, GRod and Hall.  You have to account for guys like Lopez (look he's a starter, shocker)  and Harvey.  There's been an argument for other guys like Bradish and Mattson.  There's another level of guys coming behind them.  Include whoever you want.

 

You get 160 starts in 2021.

You only have 3 defining categories for building your assessment to get to "2 league average backend starters". #ML starts (just use the number), ML-Bullpen (BP) or something at AAA (AAA or AA).

 

So walk through this list and tell me how you get there.  You already have some starts in 2021 in the books.

 

Means: 2

Harvey: 1 

Zimmermann: 1

Kremer: 1

Lopez: 1

Akin

Baumann

Lowther

Wells

Smith

GRod: AA

DLHall: AA

 

So write the number of ML starts, or BP (ML bullpen) or AA/AA next to every guy and then identify, based on whatever you'd bet as 'likely' for performance to get to the point where you make the decision to include a guy as one of those 2 pieces.

 

Just do that list for 2021.  If you decide not to make a decision in 2021, do the same list for 2022.  If you want to use "FA" for some number of starts in a future year, you don't even have to name the guy, just that you intend to sign a guy.



#65 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,674 posts

Posted 08 April 2021 - 12:39 PM

Sorry, I must be confused...  how long do you have these guys under team control?  Apparently only through '21?



#66 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,573 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 08 April 2021 - 12:40 PM

Sorry, I must be confused...  how long do you have these guys under team control?  Apparently only through '21?

 

"Rules of MLB"



#67 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,674 posts

Posted 08 April 2021 - 12:43 PM

Means if healthy..  30 ML starts. 

Kremer if healthy... I'm giving him 30 ML starts.  Because I believe in him, and I want to evaluate him over the course of a season. 

I don't really believe in Zimmermann as a long-term starter. He has an opportunity now. Every successful start he makes, he earns another opportunity. 

I would be trying to give Akin 25 ML starts this year.  I'm not sure I believe in him long-term, but there are things to like. I also don't think he has much to prove at the MiL level. 

Baumann and Lowther...  I'd be looking to give them 10-15 AAA starts, and 10-15 ML starts this year.  What they do at AAA matters. What they would do in their would be ML starts matter.   Ideally one of them is in the ML rotation to begin '21. 

Wells and Smith would spend most of '21 at AAA for me.  I'm not optimistic about either as ML starters, but think both have a chance to help the pen.  They have the chance to take the ball regularly in the Minors and earn an opportunity.



#68 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,573 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 08 April 2021 - 03:39 PM

Details

 

I am not trying to put words in your perspective, just align the details you provided for 2021.  If this isn't right or you meant something else, just change it.

 

Means: 30

Kremer: 30

Harvey: 15 (release, traded)

Zimmermann: 15, BP, AAA

Lopez: 15 (release, traded)

Akin: 25, AAA

Baumann: 15, AAA

Lowther: 15, AAA

Wells: AAA

Smith: AAA, BP

Other: 2

GRod: AA

DLHall: AA

 

That's 162 starts.  Harvey and Lopez are gone mid-year, you move Zimmermann to BP or AAA, you finish with Kremer, Akin, Lowther and Baumann getting 15-30 starts this year.

 

In regards to your earlier comment, are you ready to designate any of these guys as part of the 2 average-ish starters for 2022?



#69 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,674 posts

Posted 08 April 2021 - 04:11 PM

I am not trying to put words in your perspective, just align the details you provided for 2021.  If this isn't right or you meant something else, just change it.

 

Means: 30

Kremer: 30

Harvey: 15 (release, traded)

Zimmermann: 15, BP, AAA

Lopez: 15 (release, traded)

Akin: 25, AAA

Baumann: 15, AAA

Lowther: 15, AAA

Wells: AAA

Smith: AAA, BP

Other: 2

GRod: AA

DLHall: AA

 

That's 162 starts.  Harvey and Lopez are gone mid-year, you move Zimmermann to BP or AAA, you finish with Kremer, Akin, Lowther and Baumann getting 15-30 starts this year.

 

In regards to your earlier comment, are you ready to designate any of these guys as part of the 2 average-ish starters for 2022?

 

I think Harvey has looked pretty usable in his two starts, but I'm not tied to him at all. 
I can see why Lopez was once a prospect, but not tied to him at all either. 

Do understand that in 2021 when we're coming off a pandemic shortened season, with no minor leagues... and no clarity of how many innings anyone is going to be able to provide... that they're keeping guys around who could eat some innings this year, to help you get through the season. 

You're asking me how I would use the year right?

 

Means gets his 30 starts.
I give 30 starts to Kremer. 
I'd like to be looking at Akin all year, let's call it 25 starts since he didn't begin the year in Baltimore. 

 

That's 85 starts if that trio is healthy. 

I'd like to see Baumann and Lowther both make 10-15 ML starts this year. That's a maximum of 30. 

 

High end... 115 starts to Means, Kremer, Akin, Baumann, Lowther. 

 

I'm handing the ball to Zimmermann right now, and he gets the opportunity. I'd have a longer leash with him than Harvey and Lopez, even if I believe Zimmermann's future is the pen. 

Let's say he gets 15 starts.  That's 130 total; so 32 starts of Harvey, Lopez, etc. and that's with Means / Kremer / Akin / Baumann /  Lowther  / Zimmermann being healthy enough to get through the 130 allotted to them. 

Wells and Smith stay at AAA. 
Rodriguez and Hall stay at AA. 

 

At the end of '21 (if the O's were fortunate enough to have received 130 starts from Means / Kremer / Akin / Baumann /  Lowther and  Zimmermann) ...  you'll have a clearer sense of what you have. 

You won't know everything of course, but you'll have more to evaluate. 

I would rank the Group of 7 - Kremer, Baumann, Akin, Lowther, Zimmermann, Wells, Smith. 
I feel good about getting two league average 4th or 5th starters out of that group.  

I'd feel good about entering '22 with a rotation comprised of five out Means, Kremer, Akin, Baumann, Lowther, and Zimmermann, and having one them in relief or back at AAA starting. 

I'd want to enter '22 with Rodriguez and Hall (if they earned it as anticipated and are healthy) at AAA.  
By the end of May '22, I'd be looking to promote both.   But they'll have to earn it.  They'll bump who they bump when you are ready to bring them up.

When they do, some of the excess in the rotation to the pen. 
Could be creative and have a pen built with multiple guys capable of innings, and tandem type of work.
Possible one or two traded. 
Realistically, there will be injuries, under performance, etc... and it will sort itself out. 


  • BSLSteveBirrer likes this

#70 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,674 posts

Posted 03 May 2021 - 07:42 PM

Sent down.

#71 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 23,247 posts

Posted 03 May 2021 - 07:52 PM

Unfortunately just not a ML caliber SP.

#72 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,674 posts

Posted 03 May 2021 - 07:55 PM

Unfortunately just not a ML caliber SP.


I think this is true...but also think he can help a roster.

#73 BobPhelan

BobPhelan

    OTV

  • Moderators
  • 14,498 posts
  • LocationBel Air, MD

Posted 03 May 2021 - 08:26 PM

Unfortunately just not a ML caliber SP.


Could be right. But like Chris I think he can be productive in the bullpen in the right role.

#74 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,674 posts

Posted 16 May 2021 - 05:14 PM

Balt Sun: Bruce Zimmermann shines in long relief as Orioles rally past Yankees, 10-6, to end four-game skid



#75 Mike B

Mike B

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 37,618 posts
  • LocationTowson Md.

Posted 17 May 2021 - 10:15 AM

Zimmerman really dug in,  when he was facing guys for the third time yesterday.  It was interesting that he hit 94 late yesterday.

 

I am not sure what his long term role will be(if any), but I think we have seen so little of all these guys to say they "defintely" can or can not be something.

 

We have seen less than 50 innings of any of these young guys, so let's give them a chance to adjust and settle in.


  • BobPhelan and BSLRoseKatz like this
@mikeghg

#76 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,674 posts

Posted 02 June 2021 - 08:02 AM

MASN: Streak ends as Zimmermann is solid and clutch hits arrive

https://www.masnspor...ts-arrived.html



#77 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,674 posts

Posted 24 July 2021 - 07:24 AM

Expected back mid-August.



#78 Mike B

Mike B

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 37,618 posts
  • LocationTowson Md.

Posted 24 July 2021 - 11:43 AM

Expected back mid-August.

He has been missed. He has done much better than both Akin and Kremer.


  • BobPhelan and BSLSteveBirrer like this
@mikeghg

#79 You Play to Win the Game

You Play to Win the Game

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 60,341 posts
  • LocationMaryland

Posted 31 July 2021 - 08:13 PM

Went to the Aberdeen game tonight. Zimmerman was terrible in his 3 innings, but I guess it's to be expected.

3 IP, 3 H, 2 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 4 K

#80 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,674 posts

Posted 14 August 2021 - 08:04 AM

MASN: How Zimmermann’s return impacts rotation and roster

https://www.masnspor...and-roster.html






0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users


Our Sponsors


 width=