Can the GCOAT get his own thread?
Crunching some numbers since he recently scored his 600th goal, becoming the 4th player in history to score 600 goals in under 1,000 games.
Goals per game.
2005 - .64
2006 - .56
2007 - .79
2008 - .70
2009 - .69
2010 - .41
2011 - .48
2012 - .67
2013 - .65
2014 - .65
2015 - .63
2016 - .40
2017 - .60
Averages .61 goals per game for his career
Averaging about that in 2017-18
Averaging .54 G/G over the last three years
Averaged .65 G/G in the three years before that
Ovi is currently tied for 19th all-time in goals scored at 601. He is 32 years old.
Even though 2016 looks like an outlier, .54 G/G seems very attainable over the next three years up to his age 35 season. That would put him at around 730-740 goals at the end of the 2020-21 season. Good enough to put him at top 5 in all-time goals after 16 years.
If Ovi sits at 730 goals after 16 years at age 35, he will have 165 goals left to eclipse the great one.
If Ovi plays for 20 years, he would have to score .51 G/G in those next four years (2021-22 - 2024-25) to become the all-time leader. About 42 a year.
I think it's safe to say if he avoids major injury that shortens his seasons or career, if the NHL avoids lockouts, if Ovi's play doesn't fall off a cliff, Ovi has a chance to be the all time goals scored leader. Extremely impressive given that scoring is down with better goaltenders, compared to the early part of Gretzkys career.
Maybe regression happens faster, he might have to play until age 42 or something. But where he sits today, the all-time record is absolutely in reach.
Now, about that cup......