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NCAAF Playoff Expansion...


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#81 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 02:10 PM

NEWS: CFP presidents have unanimously approved to expand the College Football Playoff to 12 teams, sources tell
@SINow ESPN first. The date of implementation (2024 or 25 or 26) is being left for commissioners to determine, as well as details of the format.

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#82 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 02:53 PM

The details are the hard part, which is why it didn't happen before. But now that the presidents are telling the commissioners to "get it done," it will be interesting to see the wheeling and dealing that happens - wrt AQs, integrating bowl games, and how the extra games will be sold for TV while the existing contract with ESPN (thru 2025) is still in place.

 

Another hurdle is the hosts for the title game in 2024-25 (Atlanta and Miami, respectively) have to be able to rework their calendars to accommodate the later date for the title game.

 

One thing is for sure, the Big Ten and SEC are in even stronger positions now than they were when the first proposal was released in June 2021.



#83 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 05:37 PM

I like it!



#84 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 05:57 PM

I'm not against it, though I still maintain it's not going to produce the results that I think a lot of people are expecting. In fact, I think a lot of people are probably going to be pissed the first time a 10-2 Alabama or Ohio State get in (when they currently wouldn't) and boat race the field to a title.

 

The reason why the CFP consists mostly of the usual suspects every year, and the semifinal games tend to suck, is because there is almost no parity at the very top in college football. There are usually a couple elite teams, and some years only one - and then you have a huge dropoff. Yes, the first round games between the 5-12 teams will probably see some fun games. That's because the difference between #5 and #12 most years is less than the difference between #5 and #1. So once we get to the second round of games, it's just going to be more of the same.

 

As for the point that it will create more interesting/meaningful games among the lower-seeded teams late in the season, this is likely true. I'll simply counter that with the likelihood that the thrill of seeing a #1 or #2 team get upset during the regular season won't mean much of anything now. While getting the 1st Round bye might be in jeopardy, it's otherwise just a mulligan.


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#85 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 06:06 PM

I think it will ultimately lead to more recruiting parity and a better game.
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#86 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 06:17 PM

I think it will ultimately lead to more recruiting parity and a better game.

 

We'll see ultimately, but I don't think that will happen. I'm not seeing how lowering the bar to get in the CFP gets the elite recruits to consider schools they otherwise wouldn't. For most, it's still about relationship with the coaches and their track record developing players for the NFL. And now NIL will have a role too, and that would also matter more than getting in the CFP.



#87 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 06:37 PM

The top schools will get plenty still.
But right now you've got same handful of schools winning their conferences annually, and then being reinforced by the best classes because they look like they are the only programs capable of winning a National title.

If recruits begin to think more programs have a viable path... then I think we see a bit higher spread.

Of course this doesn't account for the NIL.

#88 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 06:59 PM

The top schools will get plenty still.
But right now you've got same handful of schools winning their conferences annually, and then being reinforced by the best classes because they look like they are the only programs capable of winning a National title.

If recruits begin to think more programs have a viable path... then I think we see a bit higher spread.

Of course this doesn't account for the NIL.

 

I guess that depends on how you define "viable path." If it just means you can theoretically win the playoff, then I guess....but at the same time, right now every Power 5 team has a viable path to the current playoff when the season begins. I don't see getting in as a 5 or lower seed being a big difference maker to recruits vs the other factors I mentioned.



#89 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 07:20 PM

With 4 teams, you have to be undefeated or a 1 loss team in every conference to possibly have a chance... except for the SEC which can possibly send a 2 loss team.

The top powers are still going to be the top powers...I just think instead of Alabama and Ohio State getting 20 5stars each class, they'll get 10.

#90 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 07:52 PM

We'll see ultimately, but I don't think that will happen. I'm not seeing how lowering the bar to get in the CFP gets the elite recruits to consider schools they otherwise wouldn't. For most, it's still about relationship with the coaches and their track record developing players for the NFL. And now NIL will have a role too, and that would also matter more than getting in the CFP.

See this is where I strongly disagree. They are not lowering the bar. They making it possible for lesser known teams to have a legit shot to make their case on the playing field. Because of the vast array of teams across the country its just impossible to know that teams 1-4 are for sure better than say team #10. They play such different schedules plus those "top teams' have a huge advantage by playing an imbalanced schedule. Look at Bama's schedule this year. They play 7 home games to 5 road games. Most every decent team would have an inflated W-L record with that kind of schedule.

 

Or how about this one. Ohio State plays 8 home games and only 4 road games and start the season with 5 straight home games. What a crock.



#91 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 08:43 PM

With 4 teams, you have to be undefeated or a 1 loss team in every conference to possibly have a chance... except for the SEC which can possibly send a 2 loss team.

The top powers are still going to be the top powers...I just think instead of Alabama and Ohio State getting 20 5stars each class, they'll get 10.

 

We can revisit this in a few years, but right now, I just don't see this as being any sort of equalizer in recruiting based on what you hear recruits say when they talk about why they picked the school they did.



#92 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 08:47 PM

See this is where I strongly disagree. They are not lowering the bar. They making it possible for lesser known teams to have a legit shot to make their case on the playing field. Because of the vast array of teams across the country its just impossible to know that teams 1-4 are for sure better than say team #10. They play such different schedules plus those "top teams' have a huge advantage by playing an imbalanced schedule. Look at Bama's schedule this year. They play 7 home games to 5 road games. Most every decent team would have an inflated W-L record with that kind of schedule.

 

Or how about this one. Ohio State plays 8 home games and only 4 road games and start the season with 5 straight home games. What a crock.

 

I'm not sure what case you think these #10 or so teams will be making, but I think the results will end up showing that they were ranked right where they ought to be and were nowhere close to the top 2-3 teams. The exception being what I mentioned earlier, teams like Alabama, Ohio St, etc that end up with 2-3 regular season losses and go on a run (which probably starts the outcry to go back to 4 teams  :lol: )



#93 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 03 September 2022 - 11:04 AM

I'm not sure what case you think these #10 or so teams will be making, but I think the results will end up showing that they were ranked right where they ought to be and were nowhere close to the top 2-3 teams. The exception being what I mentioned earlier, teams like Alabama, Ohio St, etc that end up with 2-3 regular season losses and go on a run (which probably starts the outcry to go back to 4 teams  :lol: )

Ok but then it will have been settled on the field much more so than it is now. Even if the big dogs win every year. Don't see how that can be a bad thing.



#94 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 03 September 2022 - 03:25 PM

CBS Sports: College Football Playoff expansion: How a 12-team field would have looked in each of last eight seasons

https://www.cbssport...-eight-seasons/



#95 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 03 September 2022 - 03:31 PM

Ok but then it will have been settled on the field much more so than it is now. Even if the big dogs win every year. Don't see how that can be a bad thing.

 

I'm not saying it's bad, and I lean slightly in favor of expansion. I just think people are going to be expecting an NFL-type playoff scenario where sometimes a 9 or 10 win wild card team gets hot and wins the Super Bowl. That's not gonna happen here.



#96 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 08:43 AM

CBS Sports: How College Football Playoff expansion will affect realignment, job security and the future of the sport

https://www.cbssport...e-of-the-sport/



#97 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:25 AM

I'm not saying it's bad, and I lean slightly in favor of expansion. I just think people are going to be expecting an NFL-type playoff scenario where sometimes a 9 or 10 win wild card team gets hot and wins the Super Bowl. That's not gonna happen here.

I think generally that is correct. But ask Alabama about getting beat by Utah.



#98 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 08 September 2022 - 09:41 AM

The Ringer: The Expanded College Football Playoff Can Be Great—If It Follows These Five Steps



#99 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 30 November 2022 - 09:30 AM

CBS Sports: College Football Playoff urging decision with Rose Bowl time slot demands delaying early expansion

https://www.cbssport...arly-expansion/



#100 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 30 November 2022 - 09:59 PM

Great news, the last major hurdle to Playoff expansion for the 2024 season has been cleared. The Rose Bowl decided to sign on to expand early, despite being given no guarantees of an exclusive time slot to play the game at 2pm PT on Jan 1 (or Jan 2 if the 1st is on a Sunday). They weren't exactly in a position of great leverage, since once the contracts expire before the 2026 season the CFP could then leave them out and tell them to go pound sand for holding it up for 2 years and costing an estimated $450m.






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