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Austin Hays


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#281 Mike B

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Posted 15 November 2021 - 11:00 AM

Apparently he's had offseason core surgery. 

 

According to the Orioles, Keegan Akin (hip abductor), Austin Hays (core) and Ramon Urias (core) all had surgical procedures this offseason. All are going through required rehab and are expected to be ready for spring training. They're a few weeks away from normal offseason work.

That sounds painful, but I have no idea what that entails.


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#282 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 02:02 PM

MASN: Hays details core injury sustained in May



#283 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 25 November 2021 - 09:11 AM

Core injuries are terrible for any athlete since pretty much all sports require a lot of twisting motion. But for a batter.....ouch....



#284 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 08:28 AM

MASN: Toolsy Hays is the kind of player Orioles can build around

https://www.masnspor...ild-around.html



#285 Mackus

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 08:42 AM

Toolsy would be a great nickname for a baseball player.

 

I still don't really think Hays is a major piece moving forward.  Passable starting corner OF, maybe closer to average, and can fill in for you at CF which gives you a lot of roster flexibility in not needing to carry a glove-only reserve OF.  I admittedly didn't watch much over the final months of the season, so maybe he made some improvements in approach, but beyond the health I think his biggest concern is his approach at the plate.  Not just the low walk rate, that's a symptom, but the root cause is the aggressive guess-only swinging.  I don't think he can overcome that often enough to have really good overall numbers and I've never seen any hint of change or improvement from him in that regard.

 

Worst case is he's a good bench player, he can fill in at all 3 positions, has speed and pop.  I think he is better than even that, but I don't see very good odds of him being better than a mid-tier or lower end starter.  He'll be the guy next year though, so he'll get another opportunity to improve upon what we've seen to date.



#286 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 09:00 AM

Still think he's the most talented player on the roster.


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#287 Mackus

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 09:22 AM

He's a good defender in the corner, got a good arm, decent speed (though he can't steal bases, and good power.  His hit tool is not so good, both in terms of hitting for average and being able to get on base.  That's his major limitation right now.  Hitting is the most important tool, so being deficient there really lowers his overall talent evaluation, in my view.  Hopefully he can improve.



#288 mweb08

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 10:17 AM

Is this one of those deals where we're divorcing talent from production, or at least expected production?

#289 Mackus

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 10:21 AM

I could see if you had a hypothetical where MLB teams held a workout showcase and people had no idea about their past production that we'd think Hays was a stud and would be scouted as one of the more highly ranked guys (especially so among only current Orioles).  He checks all the boxes physically and probably a monster in BP.  His issue is translating the tools to in-game production at the plate.



#290 Mike B

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 10:26 AM

Still think he's the most talented player on the roster.

We have seen glimpses of a very good ball player.  I think a lot of Hays shortcomings, would lessen if he could stay on the field for 150 games a season.  

 

I think we could see a monster year from Hays if he could just stay healthy.


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#291 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 11:06 AM

Is this one of those deals where we're divorcing talent from production, or at least expected production?


Ultimate production is way more important, but talent is not one and the same with production imo. 



#292 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 11:07 AM

I forgot we just had the same discussion in Sept.  

 

Gave my extended thoughts a couple of pages back.

 

https://forum.baltim...-hays/?p=967445



#293 mweb08

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 11:45 AM


Ultimate production is way more important, but talent is not one and the same with production imo.


But if talent is not expected to translate into production, I'm not sure allegedly being most talented matters much.

When we talk about the talent of prospects and young players, I take that more as a discussion of how good they can be on the field rather than an evaluation of their traits without consideration to how those traits will turn into production.

I think the former is much more instructive.

#294 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 12:44 PM

But if talent is not expected to translate into production, I'm not sure allegedly being most talented matters much.

When we talk about the talent of prospects and young players, I take that more as a discussion of how good they can be on the field rather than an evaluation of their traits without consideration to how those traits will turn into production.

I think the former is much more instructive.

 

I think you are right Mike. 

It doesn't really matter how talented you are; it matters what you produce.

 

Talent wise, I think Hays can be a multiple time AS.  

 

But the questions / limitations about him could easily make him someone you are ready to move on from as a starter by the end of the next year. 



#295 Mackus

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 12:47 PM

The younger and less experienced you are, the more I think we can project that current talent could translate to future production.

 

Hays still has that potential for his talent to translate to more production.  But the more experience he gains and the more that he produces as he has and not any better, the less likely any improvement becomes.  There is less reason for projection now than there was several years ago.


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#296 makoman

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 01:06 PM

The younger and less experienced you are, the more I think we can project that current talent could translate to future production.

 

Hays still has that potential for his talent to translate to more production.  But the more experience he gains and the more that he produces as he has and not any better, the less likely any improvement becomes.  There is less reason for projection now than there was several years ago.

Yeah, it's pretty routine to refer to ceiling and likelihood of reaching it, which just seems like different words for talent and actual production.

 

When you mash AA at age 21 and show good tools and the ability to stick at CF, your ceiling is sky high. At that age you are still likely enough to hit the ceiling because you still have plenty of time to develop. A lot of that potential-mulitple-time-All-Star chance involves developing the hit tool a little bit more. Every year you fail to do that the likelihood goes down, and when you're a slightly above average major leaguer after your age 25 season you are getting close to he is what he is territory. Players certainly can still make big improvements at this point, but it's just getting to be less likely. Maybe it's more likely a guy who is often injured makes such improvements if he can start to stay healthy, since he did lose probably a half year of development in each of 2018-2020.



#297 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 01:25 PM

If '21 is all that he is, he's a productive ML.  A solid but unspectacular player. If he's that, or of course there is any regression... you are going to be looking to improve on him.   I'm thinking he's going to make a jump to being a 4 win guy the next few years.  



#298 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 05 January 2022 - 07:20 PM

Balt Sun: Oriole of the Day: Another September surge leaves Austin Hays in solid position entering 2022



#299 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 January 2022 - 09:18 AM

PressBoxMatt Kremnitzer: Can Austin Hays Make Cedric Mullins-Like Leap For Orioles In 2022?



#300 Mike B

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Posted 13 January 2022 - 04:13 PM

Not sure about a Cedric type leap, but his left field defense just became far more important.


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