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2016: Keep or Drop?


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#1 NewMarketSean

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 10:14 AM

So I am trying to move on from a year where I dropped Karlos Williams and David Johnson a week before they blew up. Could have kept both of them for $6 each.

 

Anyway...

 

So far I am looking to keep the BB Gun -- Bortles, for $6, Dion Lewis for $6 assuming he comes back healthy, and then Lamar Miller for $24.

 

$175 cap at draft, $200 cap after draft.

 

I could keep Doug Baldwin for $6, too. The last 8 games of the season or whatever it was was probably a fluke but he did have more TD's than Beckham.

 

Not sexy keepers but there's great value there.


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#2 Mackus

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 11:03 AM

Miller and Lewis for sure, nice value on them especially Miller who will push $40 in most auctions.  Not a ton of surplus value on Bortles, unless somebody loves him and bids him up.  As a fringe QB1, he likely doesn't go for much more than low teens in a fresh auction, so you're getting at most $10 in surplus value.  But, there is breakout potential and long-term upside.  I'd keep him over Baldwin if you only get 3.

 

Was your team awful last year or are you just omitting any really expensive keeper options?



#3 NewMarketSean

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 11:24 AM

I omitted them. I went 8-6 and lost in playoffs because I started Ben over Bortles, go figure.

 

I could keep Big Ben for $30, D. Thomas for $36 or McCoy for $53. I would consider keeping Ben but I think he could be had for cheaper than $30, he's never gone for higher than $30 in years -- if ever -- and his performance is always so volatile week to week. 

 

So I'm going value with Bortles. Probably comes back to earth a bit this year but that offense is solid and probably better overall from last year.


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#4 Mackus

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 12:26 PM

Wouldn't keep Ben or McCoy at those prices.  Would consider Thomas, though.  Tough to gauge how well he'll do with Lynch or Sanchez at QB, but I think people overrate the negative impact that bad QB play has on top WR in regards to fantasy stats and I do think Thomas is an elite WR and will be in the top-10 despite crappy QB play.

 

Guess it depends on how many WR are kept otherwise and what you think Thomas would go for if thrown back into the pool.  If you toss Bortles back, I think you could get him for very close to the $6 you'd keep him for.  Not sure if Thomas would stay under $40.  Remember that in keeper leagues, prices of the guys that make it to auction are inflated since each owner is getting surplus value on the dollars spent on keepers.  So if Thomas is averaging $25-30 in new or single-season auctions, that may be the equivalent to $35-40 in a keeper.



#5 JeremyStrain

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 12:32 PM

I omitted them. I went 8-6 and lost in playoffs because I started Ben over Bortles, go figure.

 

I could keep Big Ben for $30, D. Thomas for $36 or McCoy for $53. I would consider keeping Ben but I think he could be had for cheaper than $30, he's never gone for higher than $30 in years -- if ever -- and his performance is always so volatile week to week. 

 

So I'm going value with Bortles. Probably comes back to earth a bit this year but that offense is solid and probably better overall from last year.

 

Keeping Bortles at $6 at worst probably gives you a solid backup, and if you steal some value in your draft you could still get a starter and that $6 isn't going to hurt you.

 

I feel like every year there's a great QB that slides and gets got on the cheap just because people already have their starters and keepers locked in and don't wanna spend. You could get a guy for $23 bucks that has a killer year and spend less on both QB than you would for Ben. Hedging bets.


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#6 NewMarketSean

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 01:07 PM

Wouldn't keep Ben or McCoy at those prices.  Would consider Thomas, though.  Tough to gauge how well he'll do with Lynch or Sanchez at QB, but I think people overrate the negative impact that bad QB play has on top WR in regards to fantasy stats and I do think Thomas is an elite WR and will be in the top-10 despite crappy QB play.

 

Guess it depends on how many WR are kept otherwise and what you think Thomas would go for if thrown back into the pool.  If you toss Bortles back, I think you could get him for very close to the $6 you'd keep him for.  Not sure if Thomas would stay under $40.  Remember that in keeper leagues, prices of the guys that make it to auction are inflated since each owner is getting surplus value on the dollars spent on keepers.  So if Thomas is averaging $25-30 in new or single-season auctions, that may be the equivalent to $35-40 in a keeper.

 

Our league is funny. It all depends on who is out there and who has the money. A player could get thrown out there late who should go for around $20 and there will be a bidding war between two guys who still have money and a need that the player fits and the player will go for $38. 

 

Stafford started going for $40+ when he had that first big year. Bortles would probably go for around $18-25 depending on what QB's are kept. He could legitimately be the 2nd or 3rd best QB available at the start of the draft based on who is kept. $6 is a bargain.

 

I like my 3 keepers over Thomas at $36. He played at a Maclin level last year and no reason to believe he improves substantially. I also think he'll go for cheaper than $36, so I will try to get him back if I can. Guys who underperform and/or change teams can usually be stolen in our league the following year. I think he could go for something around $25. 


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#7 NewMarketSean

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 01:11 PM

Keeping Bortles at $6 at worst probably gives you a solid backup, and if you steal some value in your draft you could still get a starter and that $6 isn't going to hurt you.

 

I feel like every year there's a great QB that slides and gets got on the cheap just because people already have their starters and keepers locked in and don't wanna spend. You could get a guy for $23 bucks that has a killer year and spend less on both QB than you would for Ben. Hedging bets.

 

I am ALL IN on the BB Gun. He's my starter and I probably won't even draft a back up and pick up a QB with the best match up when Bortles is on bye week 5. 


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#8 Mackus

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 01:51 PM

Our league is funny. It all depends on who is out there and who has the money. A player could get thrown out there late who should go for around $20 and there will be a bidding war between two guys who still have money and a need that the player fits and the player will go for $38. 

 

Stafford started going for $40+ when he had that first big year. Bortles would probably go for around $18-25 depending on what QB's are kept. He could legitimately be the 2nd or 3rd best QB available at the start of the draft based on who is kept. $6 is a bargain.

 

I like my 3 keepers over Thomas at $36. He played at a Maclin level last year and no reason to believe he improves substantially. I also think he'll go for cheaper than $36, so I will try to get him back if I can. Guys who underperform and/or change teams can usually be stolen in our league the following year. I think he could go for something around $25. 

 

If you know QBs go for ridiculous prices in your league, then keeping Bortles at $6 is a lot more sound of a decision.  My work league is like that, it's draft, but there is always a very early run on QBs, if I could keep a solid back-end QB1 with what equates to a late round pick in that league it'd definitely be worth it.  Keeping Bortles for $6 means you could spend $40 on Thomas if you wanted to and be well ahead of where you'd be if you instead kept Thomas for $36 and had to bid $15+ for Bortles.

 

I don't agree with your assessment of Thomas, though.  Even with broken down Peyton he was still around the top 12 in points at WR last year and had over 1300 yards.  I would think the yards should be close to the same this year even with Lynch and Sanchez, but he likely gets more TDs.



#9 NewMarketSean

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 01:55 PM

If you know QBs go for ridiculous prices in your league, then keeping Bortles at $6 is a lot more sound of a decision.  My work league is like that, it's draft, but there is always a very early run on QBs, if I could keep a solid back-end QB1 with what equates to a late round pick in that league it'd definitely be worth it.  Keeping Bortles for $6 means you could spend $40 on Thomas if you wanted to and be well ahead of where you'd be if you instead kept Thomas for $36 and had to bid $15+ for Bortles.

 

I don't agree with your assessment of Thomas, though.  Even with broken down Peyton he was still around the top 12 in points at WR last year and had over 1300 yards.  I would think the yards should be close to the same this year even with Lynch and Sanchez, but he likely gets more TDs.

 

Two TD's until week 12. He finished nicely, though.

 

I may have a conundrum...you're talking me into considering Thomas but I don't think I would keep him at the expensive of Lewis or Miller.

 

Something to keep an eye on as the offseason and preseason gets underway.


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#10 Mackus

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 02:23 PM

Lewis at $6 and Miller at $24 are both more surplus value than Thomas would be at $36.  So I'd stick with those two.  Personally I'd keep Thomas over Bortles, but if you think that keeping Bortles and buying Thomas will be cheaper than keeping Thomas and buying Bortles in the auction, then go that route.

 

Can you trade guys pre-keepers?  If you are personally high on Bortles and down on Thomas, find someone in your league who needs a WR, sell them the story I just sold you, and see if you can trade him for some additional auction budget or perhaps package him and Lewis for another stud RB to go with Miller.


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#11 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 11 August 2016 - 11:53 AM

I get to keep one of the following...

 

DeAngelo Williams in round 8

or

Dorial Green-Beckham in round 9

 

DGB just needs something to click between his head and his physical gifts and he'll be a stud. I also get to keep him for up to three years if I want in rounds 9, 7, then 5 respectively. 

 

Given that keeper structure, I think long-term DGB is the better risk/reward than Williams who is a RB on the wrong side of 30, although he'll get a lot of opportunities short term. I drafted Williams round 10 last year specifically because he was getting a start or two early. Now he's guaranteed four starts...does it justify round 8 in a deep league? 36 RBs taken before round 8 last year, so backups already coming off the board before then. 

 

Short term play, or long term risk/reward? 

 

I'm leaning Williams because more people may be keen on him after last year. By week 5 when Bell is back, I'll have been hopefully been able to find a replacement on the wire, or one of my many late round RB choices will be featured more. Always some unknown breakout star, or someone getting hurt. Then again, maybe not. 

 

Maybe I'd be able to snag DGB in the 9th round without keeping him anyway. Then again, maybe not. 


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#12 Bmore Irish

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Posted 11 August 2016 - 12:15 PM

I can keep three players at the following costs (round pick):

Duke Johnson (9th)

Michael Crabtree (14th)

Gary Barnidge (14th)

Jameis Winston (16th)

If I keep the two 14th rounders, one of them will cost a 13th.

I'm keeping Duke Johnson and Michael Crabtree, but I'm going back and forth between Barnidge and Winston. I could justify either, but I'm looking for some outside perspective.

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#13 NewMarketSean

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Posted 11 August 2016 - 01:12 PM

I get to keep one of the following...

 

DeAngelo Williams in round 8

or

Dorial Green-Beckham in round 9

 

DGB just needs something to click between his head and his physical gifts and he'll be a stud. I also get to keep him for up to three years if I want in rounds 9, 7, then 5 respectively. 

 

Given that keeper structure, I think long-term DGB is the better risk/reward than Williams who is a RB on the wrong side of 30, although he'll get a lot of opportunities short term. I drafted Williams round 10 last year specifically because he was getting a start or two early. Now he's guaranteed four starts...does it justify round 8 in a deep league? 36 RBs taken before round 8 last year, so backups already coming off the board before then. 

 

Short term play, or long term risk/reward? 

 

I'm leaning Williams because more people may be keen on him after last year. By week 5 when Bell is back, I'll have been hopefully been able to find a replacement on the wire, or one of my many late round RB choices will be featured more. Always some unknown breakout star, or someone getting hurt. Then again, maybe not. 

 

Maybe I'd be able to snag DGB in the 9th round without keeping him anyway. Then again, maybe not. 

Yeah Williams. He played amazing last year and Bell will probably get hurt this year too. He always seems to miss a ton of games.

 

I wouldn't draft anyone on the Titans, personally.


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#14 NewMarketSean

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Posted 11 August 2016 - 01:15 PM

I can keep three players at the following costs (round pick):

Duke Johnson (9th)

Michael Crabtree (14th)

Gary Barnidge (14th)

Jameis Winston (16th)

If I keep the two 14th rounders, one of them will cost a 13th.

I'm keeping Duke Johnson and Michael Crabtree, but I'm going back and forth between Barnidge and Winston. I could justify either, but I'm looking for some outside perspective.

Johnson, Crabtree and Winston. 


I never had friends later on like the ones I had when I was twelve. Jesus, does anyone?

#15 Mackus

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 09:15 AM

Yeah Williams. He played amazing last year and Bell will probably get hurt this year too. He always seems to miss a ton of games.

 

Agree.  Keep him, ride him for 4 weeks, then trade him to the Bell owner.



#16 NewMarketSean

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 09:16 AM

So I ended up keeping Bortles, Miller and Lewis.

 

Still going to try to get another every down RB.


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#17 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 03:53 PM

Second guessing myself. I'm defintely keeping Deangelo Williams in the 8th round. Mike Evans in the 3rd round.

On the fence about Delanie Walker in the 6th OR Green-Beckham in the 9th.

Both play on teams that will play from behind and rack up some garbage points. DGB could the 2nd WR in Philly behind Matthews. Agholor kind of sucks. Walker could get more targets with DGB gone. But with TEs I kind of think it's Gronk, then the rest is a craps shoot. Drafted Walker in the 8th last year, so maybe I could find the next mid level TE there again and hope he exceeds expectations.
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