SI: How I decide who gets my Hall of Fame vote, and why steroid users don't belong
Prime examples why cherry picking and past precedent are the worst ways to evaluate who gets in the hall.
Verducci talks about Fred McGriff. While he had a long career, he thinks steroid guys stats drowned him out. I think he just peaked way too early in a long career. He picks out "Only 37 players have on OPS+ of 129 or better and 10,000 plate appearances.... all in the hall that aren't tied to steroids," McGriff had an OPS+ of 134 and the 10,000+ PAs
So thats the benchmark? If only John Olerud played one or two more seasons he would have amassed the PAs to get in the hall by this cherry picked metric. Nevermind the gold glove defense Olerud played that McGriff never did. Don't get me wrong, Olerud was a great player, but not hall worthy. If Ken Singleton played 2 more seasons...hall of Verducci. Please tell me that he put Bagwell on his ballot and didn't leave him off because he was 569, or one season, shy of 10,000 PAs despite being a better player than McGriff, easily, and a 149 OPS+ since thats the stat he picked.
And why did he pick 129 for OPS+? Was it random? Its not a round number like 130, or 140 or 120? Is it because in two years when Bobby Abreu is on the ballot with his 10,081 PAs, Verducci can vouch for not voting for him because of his 128 OPS+. Sorry Bobby. You needed 1 more OPS+. Dwight Evans missed out by 2 OPS+. Rusty Staub missed out by 5 OPS+. Dave Parker, misses the hall by 8 OPS+, as well as Harold Baines.
Now, Adrian Beltre should be a HOFer when all is said and done, IMO. But he's got an OPS+ of 116 despite 11,260 PAs and counting. Verducci going to hold that against him and just omit defense all together?
He brings up everyone with 475+ HRs is in the hall that isn't attached to roids. Sorry Carlos Delgado. Needed to hit two more home runs, and play for two more years, and you meet the criteria. (138 OPS+, 8,657 PAs) Shoulda hit 6 that one game instead of 4. Chipper Jones was 7 HRs shy of 475. (141 OPS+, 10,614 PAs) Chipper Jones is certainly hall worthy.
Other than that, he comes off sounding like an old curmudgeon voter who is pissed off that younger writers are getting votes and not using them they way he would...but then he backs that asshat Murray Chass.