47 replies to this topic

[Chris B]

Remember LHP Chris Lee? The guy the O's traded international bonus slots to the Astros for?

 

He was promoted to Bowie at the beginning of August and has pitched really well for the Baysox in his 5 starts. 2.25 ERA through 28 IP. 19K/15BB.

 

http://www.milb.com/...tching/2015/ALL

 

Walks are high but something to look at, considering the O's lack of starting pitching prospects, especially left-handers.

[Mackus]

http://www.baltimore...al-draft-slots/

 

Hope the scouts see something, because there isn't a ton to like from the numbers.  He keeps the ball in the park really well, but low K and high BB.  Feels kind of like Zack Davies but with more walks and lefthanded (and a year-and-a-half older compared to level).

[Coker]

Lee's game logs for his career are interesting, just because of how up and down they are. It looks like he's got it one game, and them completely loses it the next. 

But anyways, I think Lee was promoted in large part due to his last 5 starts with the Keys:
 

 

 

If the guy could develop any semblance of control, he might be something worthwhile. Doesn't seem like many people make solid contact off him.Since coming over to the O's he's given up a whopping 19XBHs in 19 starts (17 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR). .292BABIP but the SLG% is a measly .302. LD% is 19%.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Baltimore Sun: Orioles lefty Chris Lee a prospect on the rise - Baltimore Sun

[RShack]

Baltimore Sun: Orioles lefty Chris Lee a prospect on the rise - Baltimore Sun

 

That was fun to read...

[Mackus]

Will be interesting to see if his changes lead to better performance next season.  The numbers you like to see from him are the great HR-rate and what appears to be a really good groundball percentage.  You can get by with low Ks, even with relatively high BB numbers, if you keep the ball on the ground and in the park. 

 

If he's added velocity but can keep the same GB rates, it would stand to reason that the K-rate may even increase, which would be even better.  Doubt the velocity would lead directly to fewer walks, but maybe more consistent mechanics can lead to more consistent command.

 

A guy who gets ground balls, strikes people out, doesn't walk people, and doesn't give up HRs is basically my idea of a perfect pitcher.  Lee already does two of the four quite well but struggles with the other two.  If he can add one more without sacrificing anything else, he'll have a shot.

[RShack]

If it was a mild improvement, I'd be skeptical until it showed actual results for a fairly long time... but if that article is correct, this sounds like an all-the-sudden very-unsubtle difference... 

 

If nothing else, it indicates that some of the MiL coaching staff were not only paying attention but also spelling things out in a way the kid could grok and act on...

[Mackus]

I'm always highly skeptical of spring training articles that talk about how good somebody looks and that they've made major improvements.  Winter minicamps or whatever this thing was called probably need even higher scrutiny.

 

Adding him to the 40-man seems more meaningful to me than any of the superlatives coming out in articles like this.  Obviously the team is at least intrigued by his progress and think the current scouting profile on him is much more meaningful than his past performance, because there was no risk of someone with his production being taken in the Rule V based on numbers alone.

 

I wish there was PitchFX or velocity stats available for minor leaguers.  Would really like to see how his velocity fared once he got here and how it does next year compared to with Houston.

[RShack]

I'm always highly skeptical of spring training articles that talk about how good somebody looks and that they've made major improvements.  Winter minicamps or whatever this thing was called probably need even higher scrutiny.

 

Adding him to the 40-man seems more meaningful to me than any of the superlatives coming out in articles like this.  Obviously the team is at least intrigued by his progress and think the current scouting profile on him is much more meaningful than his past performance, because there was no risk of someone with his production being taken in the Rule V based on numbers alone.

 

I wish there was PitchFX or velocity stats available for minor leaguers.  Would really like to see how his velocity fared once he got here and how it does next year compared to with Houston.

 

I understand being skeptical about off-season hype.  

 

What struck me about the article was 2 things:

 

1.  I never heard of the guy who wrote it.

 

2.  The improvements mentioned weren't just vague hand-waving, they were pretty specific and backed up by quotes from named sources that were also very specific.

 

But you're right, we'll know when we know...

[BSLChrisStoner]

Per Reggie Yinger / Feb 1st
http://baltimorespor...e-sisco-others/

Acquired from the Houston Astros in May 2015, Lee is a tall, lanky lefty that improved in multiple ways once he was acquired by the Orioles. During his first few outings in High-A, his velocity sat between 88-91 mph; however, the velocity saw a serious uptick as the season progressed. Before and after his promotion to Bowie (AA), Lee was sitting between 92-94 mph and would top out at 96 mph. Additionally, his mechanics and control all became better, as he was able to work both sides of the plate with his fastball, something which he struggled with early on in his career. His delivery is easily repeatable and he has a nice 3/4 delivery with arm-side run on his fastball. As far as secondary pitches, he offers two types of sliders and a change-up. His “harder” slider can be confused with a cut-fastball, as it’s a hard, tight pitch that can be anywhere from 87-91 mph. His other slider is more of a traditional slider, with a sweeping action that sits between 81-84 mph. Although he typically goes fastball and slider early and often, his change-up (82-85 mph) has good action and can miss bats. If he can work the change-up more into his repertoire, he will have three above-average pitches.   

Going Forward: Baltimore added Lee to their 40-man roster in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft and it’s easy to see why. With such improvement in a few quick months, Lee has become a prospect to watch in an empty minor league system. His biggest goal moving forward will be to control his fastball and his slider, while adding more change-ups, as he will need this to remain in rotation. Additionally, he’ll need to continue to work inside to lefties, as he’s been inconsistent with this approach in the future. He’ll likely start the season in Bowie (AA), but could quickly move to Norfolk (AAA).

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: Chris Lee on delivery tweaks, his velocity gain and more, plus other notes
http://www.masnsport...ther-notes.html

[ReggieYinger]

MASN: Chris Lee on delivery tweaks, his velocity gain and more, plus other notes
http://www.masnsport...ther-notes.html

Interesting mention of the slider and the two grips.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Season: 5-0, 2.30 era, 31.1 ip, 21 hits, 2 hr's, 7 bb's, 12 k's

[BaltBird 24]

Would be much more intriguing if he had more than 12 Ks in 31.1 IP..... that's just way too ridiculously low of a rate to consider him a legitimate top prospect. 

[Mackus]

Heading into the season, he had shown great skill at keeping the ball in the park and at inducing ground balls. He was bad at avoiding walks and at generating Ks.

He's continued getting ground balls. Even moreso, perhaps. So that's great.
His walk rate has fallen precipitously so far. Down to 5.7% (2 per 9 IP) from around 10% last year and for his career to this point. That's also a great development and a huge step forward for him if he can keep it up. Wouldn't expect it to remain this low, but if he can be in the 3.0-3.5 per 9 IP range, that will be great.

Not such good news in the other areas.
Strikeouts have fallen from low to "laughably, unsustainably low". Last year he was a little over 6 per 9 IP, or slightly over 15% of batters. That's low, but nothing compare to the under 3.5 K/9 or slightly under 10% of batters. As a point of comparison, no MLB qualified starter has had a K-rate below 10% in the past 5 seasons and the league average has been steadily rising up to about 19-20%. Of course, it's very early, so he has plenty of time to get that back to his typical levels at least, which I'd fully expect him to do. K rates this low, especially when a guy is otherwise pitching effectively, is totally flukish.
HRs have gone up from an impossible low 2 in 145 IP last year to 2 already in 31.1 IP so far this year (0.57 per 9 IP). There is nothing at all wrong with 2 HR every 30 IP, so this is still a great rate for him, mostly I am just pointing out how amazing it was for him to only give up 2 all year last season, that's freaking remarkable. For the rest of his career other than last year, he was about the same rate as this season (0.6 per 9 IP), which is really good even without considering the insanity he showed last season.

So, he's maintained great GB and HR rates. K's have gone down but BB have gone up. If he can bounce the K back up to previous rates without also seeing the BB go back up to his previous levels, that will be a very nice development.

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: No strikeouts, no problem: Chris Lee thriving at Bowie
http://www.masnsport...lta-update.html

[BSLChrisStoner]

Lee's last turn through the rotation was skipped due to fatigue.

 

I keep wanting to think he has a chance for promotion, then I look at the K's... (19 in 51.1 ip), and realize he has to miss more bats before he becomes a legitimate option.

[Mackus]

He's had more in the past.  I think he'll always be a low strikeout guy, but I think the staggeringly low K-rate this year is mostly a fluke.

 

If he can continue to limit the walks like he has this year, and continue to get groundballs and keep the ball in the park like he always has, then he can get by with a K/9 at 6 or so.  You'd like to see a higher rate in the minors since you figure he'll K fewer MLB hitters than he does guys at AA and AAA.

[SportsGuy]

He's had more in the past.  I think he'll always be a low strikeout guy, but I think the staggeringly low K-rate this year is mostly a fluke.

 

If he can continue to limit the walks like he has this year, and continue to get groundballs and keep the ball in the park like he always has, then he can get by with a K/9 at 6 or so.  You'd like to see a higher rate in the minors since you figure he'll K fewer MLB hitters than he does guys at AA and AAA.

In lower levels, right?

[Mackus]

In lower levels, right?

 

Yeah, and in Bowie last year (6.2 K/9 in 38 IP).

 

The current rate is just so far out of the realm of rational that it has to be a fluke.  If it was a falloff to something in the 5s, I could see explaining it as the higher competition not missing his stuff, but the magnitude of the drop (3.3 per 9) makes me think it's an anomaly rather than a level he'll sustain.