571 replies to this topic

[JeremyStrain]

Some guys swing at everything because they can't figure out what pitches are coming out of the hand (Austin Hays). Other guys swing at everything because they can hit everything (Miguel Tejada). I'd put Mountcastle in the latter category based on what I saw from him this season.

Looking only at a low walk rate is indicative but doesn't tell you everything. Gotta see the actual approach to know if the low walks are because of bad plate discipline or because of justifiably aggressive approach. If its because of bad plate discipline in the minors, that'll likely get worse as they climb the ladder and the overall offensive production will plummet. If it's because of an aggressive approach with a strong hit tool, then the overall production should be more sustainable. A low walk rate will always put a lower ceiling on a guy than someone who can draw more walks while maintaining the ISO and AVG. OBP is very important and drives run scoring. But you can still be a very good to great hitter without walking a lot, it's just more difficult.

Agree completely.

The armchair scouts that like to correlate stats to characteristics miss this one a lot. Some guys are just very aggressive and feel like they can hit everything so they swing more. It’s not that they couldn’t draw walks if they wanted to, but most of them feel like the minors is where you swing away and get even better at it, not take your walks and help the team.

I’ve known a bunch of minor league guys and the ones that are legit ML prospects view improving personally more important than team wins in the minors so it plays out like this sometimes. Some have been coming around the past few years and realize displaying the ability to take walks is a positive, but many of them still view walks as a negative to the pitcher, not a positive to the batter.

[Old Man]

Agree completely.

The armchair scouts that like to correlate stats to characteristics miss this one a lot. Some guys are just very aggressive and feel like they can hit everything so they swing more. It’s not that they couldn’t draw walks if they wanted to, but most of them feel like the minors is where you swing away and get even better at it, not take your walks and help the team.

I’ve known a bunch of minor league guys and the ones that are legit ML prospects view improving personally more important than team wins in the minors so it plays out like this sometimes. Some have been coming around the past few years and realize displaying the ability to take walks is a positive, but many of them still view walks as a negative to the pitcher, not a positive to the batter.

I got lite up at OH one day. I causally mentioned that sometimes fans become statheads, just too zealous and over analyze every nuance of the game, instead of just watching it with the eyes for entertainment purposes.

 

I agree stats have their place and my hats off to the guys that understand and know what they are talking about. But, some of us are just fans.

 

I also remember the story Davy bring computer printout pages of pages to try and make his point, and basically Earl was like, yeah, but I still manage it my way.

[JeremyStrain]

I got lite up at OH one day. I causally mentioned that sometimes fans become statheads, just too zealous and over analyze every nuance of the game, instead of just watching it with the eyes for entertainment purposes.

I agree stats have their place and my hats off to the guys that understand and know what they are talking about. But, some of us are just fans.

I also remember the story Davy bring computer printout pages of pages to try and make his point, and basically Earl was like, yeah, but I still manage it my way.

Going back to when analytics were really just going mainstream back in our OH days there were a couple of us that would try to blend our views. I think the best way is using both analytics and scouting together, some guys go one way or the other, but I think you really need both for it all to make sense. Stats are not predictive, they will show you history and you can make assumptions using historical data, but scouting will fill you in on stuff numbers can’t see, like intent, and change in methods that haven’t shown up on paper yet.

This is especially important when dealing with guys who are in the adaptive phase of development. Stats will show you what they have done, but won’t be available if they are currently changing approaches to deal with pitchers adapting to them.

[Mackus]

For MLB analysis stats are vastly superior to scouting.

For minor league and prospect analysis, scouting is vastly superior to stats.

Further your are from MLB the more valuable scouts get and less helpful stats and likely even analytics get. But the further away you get the more it becomes about projecting how a guy will grow and develop. Scouts can put a decent to good guess on how good a guy will be if they make certain improvements or follow certain growth patterns physically, and are especially good at identifying flaws that could be corrected. But it's straight voodoo trying to figure out who will actually make those improvements and who won't.

[Old Man]

I remember sitting at Bowie and there must have been 12 scouts in the area. Had to have been the opposing pitcher as Bowie wasnt throwing anybody significant.

 

I was in the last row behind home plate and I could see all the scouts and their hand held radar gun, and for each pitch there was like 4 or 5 different readings and how do you know which is accurate?

[JeremyStrain]

I remember sitting at Bowie and there must have been 12 scouts in the area. Had to have been the opposing pitcher as Bowie wasnt throwing anybody significant.

 

I was in the last row behind home plate and I could see all the scouts and their hand held radar gun, and for each pitch there was like 4 or 5 different readings and how do you know which is accurate?

Yeah that's scout row. Players from both teams get seats in that area for their family/GF/spouse too. The very first row or two has a couple season ticket holders too.

 

I personally didn't like the straight on angle, it's good for seeing movement on sliders and such, but I like the angle a section or two over and higher up myself. Made the mistake of sitting there at a couple college/HS games, and once the parents figure out what you're doing they ALL make their way over to start selling their kid. Some were cool and just liked to talk the game, but others...ugh. My favorite are the ones that are like, my kid is SO much better than everyone else, and then you start pointing out flaws...they never like that.

 

Humility is a trait more people could use a good bit more of. There's ALWAYS someone better out there. And you can learn from people worse than you too. Sometimes it's what not to do. Sometimes it's a little improvement in one area that maybe you are a bit weaker in. But looking down your nose because you think you're better than someone is the worst. I like the ones that will compare notes and genuinely try to help each other get better. Maybe it's just cause it's what I was like as a player, but I think it says a lot about studying and maturity.

[Old Man]

Yeah that's scout row. Players from both teams get seats in that area for their family/GF/spouse too. The very first row or two has a couple season ticket holders too.

 

I personally didn't like the straight on angle, it's good for seeing movement on sliders and such, but I like the angle a section or two over and higher up myself. Made the mistake of sitting there at a couple college/HS games, and once the parents figure out what you're doing they ALL make their way over to start selling their kid. Some were cool and just liked to talk the game, but others...ugh. My favorite are the ones that are like, my kid is SO much better than everyone else, and then you start pointing out flaws...they never like that.

 

Humility is a trait more people could use a good bit more of. There's ALWAYS someone better out there. And you can learn from people worse than you too. Sometimes it's what not to do. Sometimes it's a little improvement in one area that maybe you are a bit weaker in. But looking down your nose because you think you're better than someone is the worst. I like the ones that will compare notes and genuinely try to help each other get better. Maybe it's just cause it's what I was like as a player, but I think it says a lot about studying and maturity.

Im not a scout, but, I do recall coaching rec league sports, not even travel, just fun league, and the parents were living vicariously through their kids. Basketball was far worse than Baseball or soccer. The parents are just so potty mouth its pathentic.

 

My grandkids joined a church league 2 years, and I know religion is a touchy topic for some. But, the behavior is like night and day. Not perfect, but no potty mouths and jawing at the refs and trash talking the other team, refreshing. 

 

Back to Bowie, typically, Im more up behind the 3rd base dugout, I like that angle.

 

Great place to watch a ball game,

[Nigel Tufnel]

He finished 8th in ROY voting. He's still eligible next year.

[Mike B]

He finished 8th in ROY voting. He's still eligible next year.

Seems strange to be eligible 2 times but it fits the times,

[BSLChrisStoner]

Roy Mountcastle with the big 2 run double yesterday.

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: Hyde on Mountcastle: “We’re going to be patient with him” 

[BaltBird 24]

No reason not to give him a full season of ABs. He has nothing left to prove at AAA.

[BSLRoseKatz]

3-6 with two doubles after being moved down in the order, definitely an encouraging sign 

[BSLChrisStoner]

Hits in 5 straight games.  Average back up around Mendoza. 

April sucked. Maybe he'll have a big May.

[dude]

He's hit some rockets that have been caught too.  Time will even some of these things out.

 

Everyone largely believes in him so he'll continue to get opportunity.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Mountcastle starting to find his groove | Orioles.com

[BSLChrisStoner]

4 xbh's, including 3 homers in the last 5 games... OPS up to .665.  Average up to .238.   

[BobPhelan]

Beats out Cedric Mullins for AL Player of the Week. Joins John Means as O’s who have won it so far this year.

[Mike B]

Beats out Cedric Mullins for AL Player of the Week. Joins John Means as O’s who have won it so far this year.

I am happy for Ryan, but Cedric would have gotten my vote

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I am happy for Ryan, but Cedric would have gotten my vote

I would have voted for Mountcastle myself. But what's really cool is that the O's had two guys you could have awarded it to in the same week!