29 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Baltimore Sun /http://www.baltimore...0,5404920.story

Dan Connolly's latest includes his commentary that he believes the O's could be in on Edwin Jackson, and that there is sentiment within the organization that 4 years for Jackson is not much of a risk.

With Dan adding that sentiment from some in the organization, there is reason to think there is legitimate interest from the O's here.

We've brought up Jackson several times before. The once uber-prospect turned 28 in September.Despite being a 2009 All-Star, and throwing a no-hitter last year; his overall results have never quite matched the talent he carries in his arm. That talent is still reason to consider having him in an O’s uniform though. Jackson averaged 94.7 mph on his fastball in '11. He has pitched over 199.2ip in his last three seasons. He ended ’11 12-9, with a 3.79 ERA. In his 199.2 ip, he allowed 225 hits, 16 hr’s, 62 bb’s, with 148 k’s. His OPS against was .768, and his G/F was 0.85. With him being under 30, and with that arm, he will get multiple years from someone. (The contract he signed in ’10, was 2 years $13.35M.) The Yankees were reportedly interested heading into the off-season.

Do you have interest? If so, are you willing to offer 4 years? If obtained, what would your O's staff look like?

Before anyone else is obtained, I've been saying I would like to see a staff of:

Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Wada
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, Simon, Bergesen or Tillman, Patton or Eveland

That comes with the guess that the O's will likely have Bergesen, Tillman, and maybe Matusz starting for AAA Norfolk to begin the year. With other pitchers on the 40 man like Darren O'Day, Rapada, Zach Phillips, and VandenHurk competing for spots in the Baltimore pen.

If Jackson was obtained, I could see the O's moving Arrieta to the pen, and pushing harder to trade Johnson.

One last question. If you would have interest in obtaining Jackson, would you rather sign him for the contract it would take - or trade the commodities it would take to get someone like Floyd?

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs:http://www.fangraphs...-edwin-jackson/

[clapdiddy]

I don't know what kind of contract Jackson is going to get, but I'm on the fence about him. If he gets some sort of 4/60 deal, then no way I'd even consider that.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I don't know what kind of contract Jackson is going to get, but I'm on the fence about him. If he gets some sort of 4/60 deal, then no way I'd even consider that.

I'm thinking it would take between 4 / $40, and 4 $48 to get Jackson done to Baltimore. I think there is an argument for that level of contract, but I also hedge on wanting to provide that type of investment for him.

[SportsGuy]

4 years on EJack is a big mistake. He is a better pitcher than Guthrie but I am not sure his results will be much better.

[BSLChrisStoner]

4 years on EJack is a big mistake. He is a better pitcher than Guthrie but I am not sure his results will be much better.

Do you agree with the FG comparison to Danks? Would you give Danks 4 years?

[jsh]

E-Jax would be money well spent. Tell me the last time the O's were able to lock up a FA with an fWAR of 3.6+ each of the past 3 seasons who is still in his prime years. He is very undervalued in this market and could easily be a steal. He's also around league average on K's which is something this team needs considering the park and the defense.

[SportsGuy]

4 years on EJack is a big mistake. He is a better pitcher than Guthrie but I am not sure his results will be much better.

Do you agree with the FG comparison to Danks? Would you give Danks 4 years?

Danks has a better walk and K rate. He has pitched exclusively in the AL and in a pretty good hitters park.

He also misses bats at a good rate and is left handed, which has its advantages.

He turns 27 in April.

I would give him 4 years.

[BobPhelan]

The only way I'd want Jackson if it was a two year deal with an option, between eight and ten million a year. Maybe 3/27. I know that probably won't get it done but I'd rather sign Chen anyway.

[Luke Jackson]

Dave Cameron tweeted a little while back that it made no sense that Jackson was drawing seemingly tepid interest and Gio Gonzalez was a hot commodity on the trade market. He argues that there's not a significant enough difference between the two pitchers over the last three seasons to justify such a seemingly different level of interest due to their stat lines: http://www.fangraphs... ... =7448,1841 Of course, the big reason there's action on Gio is that he has four years of cost controlled seasons left, while with Jackson, his contract probably wouldn't be a bargain. But all you'd be giving up to get Jackson is money, whereas the A's probably want a bounty for Gio. Interesting comparison between the two pitchers; Jackson doesn't miss as many bats as Gio but walks far less at 3.03 per nine over the last three years. Jackson's xFIP was 3.93; Gio, 3.90.

So I think it's fair to say that Jackson is a little underrated by most, but I'd still be really hesitant to give Jackson what it takes to get him here; while interest is seemingly a bit tepid, Boras will end up getting him top dollar for his skillset because Boras is the best in the biz. While Jackson's walk numbers are less than his reputation would suggest they'd be, his command is still shaky, which would likely be exploited by AL East lineups. I wouldn't go to four years on Jackson.

[Luke Jackson]

To continue my thoughts...

I would definitely like to see the O's acquire a pitcher that can stick in an AL East rotation. I'm only convinced that they have two pitchers right now that can stick in a rotation, with the two being Guthrie and Britton (although Connolly has hinted that Guthrie may well be on the trading block). I'd like to see Arrieta get an opportunity in the rotation with a clean elbow and I'd like to see Matusz begin in Norfolk. I see the rotation as the following:

Guthrie-Britton-Arrieta-Wada-Hunter/Eveland

I'd much rather start with something like Guthrie-Britton-Chen-Arrieta-Wada. While it's probably only a difference of a couple wins (if that), it pushes Hunter out of the rotation and into the 'pen, where his stuff plays a lot better. It allows Matusz to begin in Norfolk and they don't have to rush him up, at least not as much as they would if another starter wasn't added. And a starter like Chen (of whom I've read good things, apparently he can stick in an AL East rotation, maybe he comes to Baltimore on a three year deal) probably keeps the Orioles in more ballgames and keeps their 'pen a little more rested and effective. Baltimore's starters were last in the AL in innings pitched last year, which exposed a not-good bullpen even more.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs:http://www.fangraphs...-edwin-jackson/

With Danks' signing a 5 year $65M deal yesterday, you would think Jackson's price-tag just went up.

You would also think Floyd is that much more available.

[Luke Jackson]

Don't know about Floyd...obviously some mixed signals from Kenny Williams; he says he wants to go with a youth movement (their farm system is historically awful and needs upgrades in the worst way), trades for Nestor Molina, but then signs perhaps his best trade chip in Danks. Of course, Danks is still tradeable; I bet most clubs wouldn't mind having Danks at 5/65. Maybe it's one of those things where Kenny saw the opportunity to lock up a good young pitcher at a club-friendly price and just had to do it. If this is the case, perhaps Kenny does deal Floyd for younger pieces and to clear some salary. Or Kenny may have been overstating his stance with a youth movement; it sounded like a good thing to tell the media and then he looked at his roster and saw a whole lot of messy contracts and thought maybe they'd give it one last go in a ho-hum division. If that's the case, Floyd isn't going anywhere.

Which is all to say that I wouldn't be so sure about Floyd being on the block.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I see USA Today's Bob Nightengale has said tonight on Twitter that Baltimore makes the most sense for Jackson.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Last call for Jackson? ESPN's Jim Bowden says the Red Sox are in negotiations.

As we talked about in the Hunter thread, I'm currently looking at a O's staff which looks like:

Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Arrieta, Wada
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, Patton, Eveland, and Simon

Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen at AAA, with O'Day, Rapada, and Phillips as other potential options for the O's bullpen.

Do you want the O's to be involved here?

[Tucker Blair]

I say pass at this point. They have enough depth now to at least be alright once the season starts.

Use the money to sign Cespedes/Soler/Concepcion, etc

[jsh]

I'm going to be very disappointed if I found out the Orioles didn't have an offer on the table somewhere in the vicinity of 3/30M and 4/48M. It's very rare to find a pitcher coming off of 3 consecutive 3.6+ WAR seasons who is also just entering his prime that can be locked up on a 3-4 year deal. Unless Boras pulls something out of thin air (always possible) someone is going to get Jackson on a very team-friendly deal. It will be unfortunate if the Orioles let this opportunity slip through their hands.

[Mackus]

I'd be pretty upset at a 4/$48M deal for Jackson. That's too much for someone so inconsistent.

3/$30M though, is a lot more palatable. He would of course sign with a much better team for that kind of money, though. I don't think he's a guy I'd be upset about them letting sign elsewhere. And my guess is that the deal he signs won't be all that "team friendly" anyways. If he had injury concerns then teams could lowball Boras, but he's been a rock starting 32+ games each of the last 5 years (with wildly varying IP because of inconsistent effectiveness), so he's gonna get 4 years at $12M at the very least, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox have to go to 5/$65M or so to land him. I wouldn't touch him at those prices (though I would if I was a contender with excess cash, like Boston).

[jsh]

Jackson's been pretty consistent the last 3 years.

[Mackus]

Jackson's been pretty consistent the last 3 years.

Maybe I'm just overly critical of him for how much better I think he should be than he is. Certainly not the most statistically well-researched opinion, but I just can't get upset over NOT giving Edwin Jackson 5/$65M or whatever it would take to get him to Baltimore.