ESPN+: Ranking The Winless Teams

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Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN's FPI: 40.2%

I don't know if alarm bells were going off in Baltimore after the Ravens lost to the Chiefs in Week 1. Losing to the Raiders at home, though, should have everyone's attention. One year after going 13-4 and wowing advanced metrics with their regular-season performance, the Ravens are 0-2. It's the first time since 2020 that a Lamar Jackson-led team has lost two straight, let alone two straight to begin the season.

Some of their problems could be expected and are straight out of their entry in the likely-to-decline column from before the season. After posting a league-best plus-12 turnover differential last season, they have been even through two games, with one giveaway and one takeaway in each of contest. Their red zone dominance has faded; an offense that converted nearly 62% of its red zone trips into touchdowns is 3-for-7, while a defense that allowed touchdowns 40.8% of the time last season is 3-for-6.

The offensive line is a work in progress. Chris Jones gave them fits in the opener. On Sunday, Jackson was sacked twice on 36 dropbacks, but the running game didn't get going until after halftime. The Ravens had 11 rushing yards on 10 designed rush attempts during the first half, only to then turn 14 carries into 93 runs after the break. After Jackson had 16 carries for 122 yards in the opener against the Chiefs, Baltimore was conscious of his health, and he ran only five times for 45 yards Sunday. Just two of those runs were designed carries.

What has been more surprising is just how bad the Ravens have been in coverage. Last season, they allowed 46 completions of 20 yards or more, or about 2.3 per game. In a season in which they were battling injuries at cornerback from August on, that's a solid performance. Mike Macdonald's unit ranked ninth in the league in 20-plus yards played allowed in the passing game.

With Macdonald, Patrick Queen, Jadeveon Clowney, Geno Stone and others leaving this offseason, the Ravens have been porous. They've already allowed a league-high 10 completions for gains of 20 yards or more. And while you might chalk that up to playing against the Chiefs in Week 1, Gardner Minshew & Co. racked up five 20-plus yard completions in Week 2, just as many as the Chiefs did in the opener. That doesn't include a 24-yard pass interference penalty on Marlon Humphrey.

Three of those completions went to Davante Adams against Brandon Stephens, a mismatch the Raiders exploited repeatedly during their comeback victory. Brock Bowers had the other two and had a big game over the middle of the field, attacking linebacker Trenton Simpson, who was Queen's replacement in the starting lineup. Play-action has torched the Ravens: Opposing quarterbacks are 15-of-15 for 112 yards and a touchdown using play fakes. Yes, that's not a typo -- that's a 100% completion rate.

One way to combat all those big plays is to fight fire with fire. That hasn't quite worked. The Ravens have struggled for explosive plays on the offensive side of the ball. Jackson is 1-of-9 for 38 yards on attempts traveling 20 air yards or more downfield this season. They have produced five plays of 20 yards or more, but those have mostly been after the catch, and one of them was the unsuccessful "Pitchy Pitchy Woo Woo" laterals play that ended the game against the Chiefs. The Ravens had 17 more 20-plus-yard gains on offense than they did on defense a year ago, a plus-17 explosive play differential. Through two games, they're at minus-five.

Even worse, their special teams appear to be falling apart. Justin Tucker missed a 56-yard field goal Sunday, leading to the world discovering his leg appears to be weakening. He has gone 1-of-7 on kicks of 50 yards or more since the start of 2023, including four misses in a row.

I have to poke a couple of holes in those concerns. Tucker's leg has led the Ravens to try deeper kicks than the ones most other kickers would attempt over that stretch. In addition to the 56-yard miss, he had a 55-yarder blocked and missed from 59 and 61 yards last season. He hit a 50-yarder and also booted through a 53-yarder in the divisional round against the Texans last season. I'd argue other kickers getting better from 50-plus has limited his advantage on the field, but I wouldn't be too worried about him.

The more damaging play for the Ravens might have instead been on the punting unit, where Jordan Stout shanked one at a critical moment. With the score tied and the Baltimore offense running off the field after a three-and-out and 2:27 to go, Stout managed a 24-yard punt out of bounds from his own 25-yard line, meaning the Raiders took over in Ravens territory. It also was penalized for having a player go out of bounds, turning the punt into a 19-yarder. Las Vegas needed one first down to get in field goal range and had no trouble getting there, setting up Daniel Carlson's game winner.

There's work to be done here. The defense has to take away the big plays. I'd like to see more consistent play from the offense. Jackson seemed to find more rhythm in the second half once the ground game got going. As the Ravens travel to face a Cowboys team that just got mauled by the Saints' running game, focusing on the run seems like a natural place to start for offensive coordinator Todd Monken as they build this week's game plan. Baltimore actually lost three straight in the middle of the 2020 season and made it to the postseason, but it needed to win out over its five subsequent games to get there. We're not quite in win-out world if they lose to Dallas next week, but that wouldn't be far off.