ESPN+: Ranking All 8 NFL Divisions
https://www.espn.com...-season-afc-nfc
1. AFC North
Combined FPI rating: 8.6 overall
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Baltimore Ravens: 4.8 (3rd in NFL)
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Cincinnati Bengals: 3.3 (7th)
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Cleveland Browns: 0.5 (14th)
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Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.0 (17th)
My 2023 preseason ranking: No. 2 overall
Yeah, we'll go with the division in which every team had a winning record last season and none has a negative FPI rating heading into 2024. I disagree a bit with the order within the division, but I do think this is the division that has the best chance of being the first ever to put all four of its teams in the postseason. (To be clear, I am not predicting that this will happen, merely saying this is the division with the best chance.)
The FPI is higher on Baltimore than I am, mainly because I have concerns about the Ravens' ability to seamlessly replace three offensive line starters and all of the coaches and players they've lost on defense. Quarterback Lamar Jackson finished the 2023 season healthy and, history tells us, if he can do that again the Ravens will be contenders -- and he may well be MVP. But given all of the changes and the challenges of playing a first-place schedule (while the Bengals get to play a fourth-place one), I have at least some concern that the Ravens could take a step back -- or at least need some time to find its footing. A big part of their FPI rating is a league-best 1.9 on defense, and I think that number assumes a lot from the young players and coaches who need to step up.
Cincinnati ranks ninth in the league with an offensive FPI of 2.4, which obviously assumes a return to consistent full health from quarterback Joe Burrow and a return to the lineup for disgruntled star wideout Ja'Marr Chase. The Bengals are also likely to benefit from playing the league's seventh-easiest schedule (per the FPI) while division rivals face the ninth-, eighth- and third-toughest.
I'm actually higher on the Browns than the FPI, which ranks them as the second-best defense in the league but the 23rd-best offense. Maybe it's offseason optimism, but I think the changes they're making on offense are going to be significant and beneficial for Deshaun Watson, even though their annual offensive tackle crisis is happening early this year.
If anyone but Mike Tomlin were coaching the Steelers, I'd be a lot lower on them. The FPI ranks them as the 19th-best offense in the league, which feels a little bit generous based on what we've seen from quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields so far in camp (not to mention the past couple of years). But they made the playoffs last year with Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph playing that position, and T.J. Watt leads a defense ranked fifth in the league per the FPI, so who am I to doubt?
