CBS Sports: 2023 NFL Offseason Rankings, Part I

https://www.cbssport...oster-building/

 

 

The Baltimore Ravens' national nightmare is over: MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson is now signed to a long-term deal (five years, $260 million), so the future at the game's most important position is, expensively, secure in Baltimore. Sure, the price tag was higher than if they had gotten serious about negotiations a year or two ago, but it's all water under the bridge now. 

 

The front office also put to bed the narrative that they haven't surrounded Jackson with adequate pass-catching talent this offseason with the signing of three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year, fully guaranteed $15 million contract as well as with the first-round draft selection of Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers, one of the 2023 draft's most precise route runners. Jackson shouted out those two teammates Flowers and Beckham in addition to former first-round receiver Rashod Bateman, plus tight ends Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews, his top target since coming to Baltimore, in his new contract presser. Those five and new offensive coordinator Todd Monken give Jackson a chance to produce as a passer like he never has before. 

 

There's still work to be done defensively. Current free agent pass-rusher Justin Houston was the only Raven to record six or more sacks last season (9.5), but he's 34 years old now. Currently, it appears as if Baltimore is banking on the development of 2021 first-round pick outside linebacker Odafe Oweh (24 years old) and 2022 second-round pick outside linebacker David Ojabo (23 years old). The Ravens would benefit from bringing Houston or Yannick Ngakoue, another former Raven, into the flock right before training camp. 

So how many average years does LJ have to have while still being called “MVP Quarterback…”?

The offer a year ago was a serious offer. That’s a terrible line.

They haven’t put to bed any narrative about receivers… when’s the last time OBJ played? Does he still have it? Zay hasn’t played a down yet. They drafted Rashod two years ago. Hollywood before that. Other receivers and TEs in other rounds, and are always signing a used to be good vet. They have always been looking to put talent around him. Another terrible take. Besides the fact that if you look at the numbers, signing high priced FAs other teams are willing to let walk, have ended up being huge failures. Teams lock up the good ones before they hit the market.

Really only agree with the last paragraph. Stop drafting projects at a premium position.

So how many average years does LJ have to have while still being called “MVP Quarterback…”?

The offer a year ago was a serious offer. That’s a terrible line.

They haven’t put to bed any narrative about receivers… when’s the last time OBJ played? Does he still have it? Zay hasn’t played a down yet. They drafted Rashod two years ago. Hollywood before that. Other receivers and TEs in other rounds, and are always signing a used to be good vet. They have always been looking to put talent around him. Another terrible take. Besides the fact that if you look at the numbers, signing high priced FAs other teams are willing to let walk, have ended up being huge failures. Teams lock up the good ones before they hit the market.

Really only agree with the last paragraph. Stop drafting projects at a premium position.

 

Can't really disagree with anything you've said here.   LJ's last 3 years have been far from MVP caliber.  They have mostly been inconsistent.  Some brilliant performances mixed with some very ordinary ones.  2019 is looking more and more like an outlier at this point.  But certainly potential is there.  There was an article in SI.COM that said that of QBs who attempted at least 25 deep passes last season, LJ finished last in catchable rate and third to last in on target rate.  That's not the receivers, that's the QB.  I think now that he has a contract and a new offense, he needs to prove he is worth the money. 

 

And I agree about the WRs.  Beckham didn't play at all last year, Bateman only a few games, and Flowers has yet to play a down in the NFL.  The potential is there on paper for sure, but until it materializes on the field it's a total unknown.  

 

"Among the 34 quarterbacks who attempted at least 25 deep passes in 2022, according to SIS, Jackson finished last in catchable rate (41%) and third to last in on-target rate (35.9%), by far the worst marks of his career as a full-time starter," the Baltimore Banner concluded.

If you're keeping score at home, that means Jackson was the worst quarterback in the NFL in accurately throwing the deep ball. Lamar actually ranked below Texans signal-caller Davis Mills.

 

https://www.si.com/n...ham-zay-flowers

Can't really disagree with anything you've said here. LJ's last 3 years have been far from MVP caliber. They have mostly been inconsistent. Some brilliant performances mixed with some very ordinary ones. 2019 is looking more and more like an outlier at this point. But certainly potential is there. There was an article in SI.COM that said that of QBs who attempted at least 25 deep passes last season, LJ finished last in catchable rate and third to last in on target rate. That's not the receivers, that's the QB. I think now that he has a contract and a new offense, he needs to prove he is worth the money.

And I agree about the WRs. Beckham didn't play at all last year, Bateman only a few games, and Flowers has yet to play a down in the NFL. The potential is there on paper for sure, but until it materializes on the field it's a total unknown.

The eye test certainly matches those numbers. But I’ve always thought deep passing numbers needed more context. PFF for example calls everything traveling 20+ yards in the air a deep pass. 0-9 short. 10-19 intermediate. But deep is 20-60? 70? a 40-50 yard window. How many of Davis Mills passes were between 20-25 yards and how many of LJs were between 45-55 yards? That would skew the numbers. Also the amount of deep passes is probably a small sample size in a season. Especially when you play just 12 games. I wonder if a three year analysis would normalize the numbers a bit. I feel like Joe had some hot and cold years in the deep passing department, so average in the end.

The eye test certainly matches those numbers. But I’ve always thought deep passing numbers needed more context. PFF for example calls everything traveling 20+ yards in the air a deep pass. 0-9 short. 10-19 intermediate. But deep is 20-60? 70? a 40-50 yard window. How many of Davis Mills passes were between 20-25 yards and how many of LJs were between 45-55 yards? That would skew the numbers. Also the amount of deep passes is probably a small sample size in a season. Especially when you play just 12 games. I wonder if a three year analysis would normalize the numbers a bit. I feel like Joe had some hot and cold years in the deep passing department, so average in the end.

 

Yeah, I agree that a deep pass of 22 yards is a lot different than a deep pass of 55 yards.  I don't know how deep they get into those numbers.  At the same time, how deep to they go into how open a potential receiver is?  I remember the game I think was against New Orleans were LJ badly missed a guy who was so wide open that there wasn't a defender within 15 yards of him.  It was pitch and catch.  That should probably be weighted more, while a 50 yard pass that goes off of the finger tips of a receiver should receive less weight.  I don't know how they arrive at their numbers, but I do agree with the overall premise that LJ's passing over 20 yards is very inconsistent.